Ariel Cohen’s 2018 Bold Predictions – Recap
The MLB playoffs are now upon us. We’ve had back-to-back one-game division title games! We’ve got a statcast broadcast! Hey … even hugs are a-plenty this postseason!
Just a reminder … I am recapping my bold predictions for 2018. You won’t see anything like “Giancarlo Stanton will hit at least 25 homeruns” – that would have been too easy a prediction. Sure, I could have filled up my list in March with much more likely calls to boast that “Ariel Cohen got 50% of his predictions right!” But that isn’t the point here. I don’t expect to get most of these correct.
The aim of the exercise is to choose a few unlikely outcomes, yet achievable upsides (or downsides) – so that the analyst can highlight certain players. My general rule for bold predictions is to target somewhere between a player’s 70th & 90th range of percentile possible outcomes, or in other words, predictions which are about 10-30% likely.