In my previous post, I looked at the hitting landscape for The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) drafts. I also analyzed my own personal team in League #6 providing player commentary along the way.

Now let’s focus on the pitching.

General Observations

Closers

The first closer, Edwin Diaz was selected in either the 4^th or 5^th rounds of all TGFBI drafts. Diaz was the consensus top closer.

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The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) drafts have now reached their completion. If you read this website often, you are already familiar with the invitational. The compilation of 21 leagues of industry experts was created by our own, Justin Mason. Each are NFBC-style 15-team leagues, with the collection vying for an overall prize – to win industry bragging rights. Last season, I had the misfortune of playing in the same league/division as the eventual winner, Clay Link. I managed a decisive 2^nd place finish in the division, but alas, there was no stopping the champ.

Today, I thought that I would provide some general observations on the TGFBI drafts, review my personal team makeup, and highlight some of my player selections along the way. My goal here is not to boast about how great my team is (or not), but rather to use the experience to convey information to you about the drafting landscape of 2019. Hopefully, some nugget of wisdom found here will assist you with your draft preparation.

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In this series, I have previously uncovered potential undervalued speedsters, power bats, batting average and RBI hitters. To round out the standard fantasy offensive categories, let’s tackle the sluggers who are due to wear out the third base line, en route to crossing the plate this season. Let’s look at some potential high runs scored batters going for a discount at the draft table this year.

In 2018, there were 43 players with least 85 Runs. There were 22 players above the 95 mark, and 9 with 105 runs scored. World Series champion Mookie Betts, and Francisco Lindor led all of baseball with 129 R. Finishing in 3^rd in the runs department with 119 was Colorado outfielder Charlie Blackmon.

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Previously in this series, I uncovered potential undervalued speedsters, power bats and batting average hitters – by comparing the Steamer projections to the current NFBC ADP. Now the focus turns to run production counting statistics, in the form of runs batted in.

In 2018, there were 40 players with least 85 RBI. There were 21 players above the 95 mark, and 10 with 105 runs batted in. World Series champion J.D. Martinez led all of baseball with 130 RBI. Khris Davis of Oakland came in second with 123.

Prospective projections though, are typically more conservative. Steamer projects the top RBI accumulator, Giancarlo Stanton, for 114 RBI. Only 5 players are projected to knock in 100 or more runs. For today’s analysis, I will focus on all players with a Steamer projection of 84 RBI or more. [I was going to choose 85 – however setting the threshold at 84 added a few interesting names.] This should give us a group of players who can greatly help your team’s RBI totals for the upcoming fantasy season.

As always, for these draft value comparisons, I look at:

• The player ranks as computed by the FanGraphs Auction Calculator with Steamer projections (standard NFBC 15 team roto league settings).
• The current NFBC ADP (of Draft Championship leagues from January 31 to present).

Below are the players selected within the top 30 ADP, who also have a Steamer projection of at least 84 RBI:

These 16 players are projected to provide an excellent run producing base for your draft. Once again, Juan Soto, the Nationals sophomore standout, just missed this list at an ADP of 31.

Below are all of the remaining players in the draft pool with a Steamer projection of at least 84 RBI:

The players above are once again ordered by their difference in Steamer Hitter Rank versus ADP Hitter Rank. Differences highlighted in GREEN are the players who are going later than their Steamer values indicate that they should; differences in RED show the overvalued players.

What jumps out to me is the rightmost column. We have been accustomed (particularly for the stolen base bargains) to seeing more RED than GREEN. That is, we are used to the select scoring categories being drafted at a premium. This isn’t the case for Runs Batted In – many of these premier sluggers are available at a discount, anywhere from 1-3 rounds earlier than Steamer values where they should be drafted.

What also stands out, is that the largest overall ADP shown is Randal Grichuk at ADP 234. Only three other players have ADPs of over 150 (Carlos Santana 196, Nomar Mazara 159, Mike Moustakas 154). Unlike stolen bases or home runs, in order to draft a player that will knock in a considerable number of runs, you need to acquire them in the first fifteen rounds – most of them in the first seven or eight rounds. One of my themes this year is “The Case for An Ace” – that you need to draft ace starting pitchers within your first few picks. On the hitting side, it is these early to middle rounds that you need to acquire most of your bats – many of whom are undervalued.

Nelson Cruz shows up on yet another undervalued player list. He is the 15^th best hitter according to Steamer, yet he is going off the boards as the 60^th overall hitter. He is severely undervalued and can help your team in HR, BA & RBI. He sits at #2 on this list. Take note.

Randal Grichuk, Jose Abreu and Joey Gallo were all previously covered in this series, but here are a few other players from above that I would like to highlight:

Nomar Mazara (Steamer Hitter Rank: 61, ADP Hitter Rank: 100, Overall ADP: 159)

Let’s take a quick look at some of Nomar Mazara’s power and run production output for the past three seasons:

On the surface, it seems that Mazara is a steady 20 homer players, with low 60s Runs and low 80s RBIs. Let’s see if there are any issues with his batted ball profile:

The 2018 GB% rate of 55% seems somewhat worrisome, and his K% rate has been ticking up year over year from 20% in 2016 to 21% in 2017 to 22% in 2018.

Could last year’s surface stats growth reversal from 2017 be injury related? Maybe. He had a thumb injury, which hampered him (and he might have played through) in the second half of 2018. Let’s look at the past season by halves:

Obviously, we can’t just assume that Mazara’s 1H production would continue for a full season – but his pace was a .282 BA, 30 HR, 110 RBI, 90 R clip. Wow!  Let’s look at his batted ball profile from half to half:

Although that groundball rate was still high in the first half, the other 1H metrics were more in line with his norm (albeit a few less flyballs, but a somewhat lucky HR/FB rate).

Overall, it is unclear whether Mazara will have any more growth in 2019 – but he’s only 24 years old. If healthy, he should easily ride the 20 HR threshold that he’s held. Batting in the heart of the Texas lineup should be the impetus to get him to 90+ RBI. He’s only 24 years old … the best is yet to come.

Give a strong consideration to the young outfielder for an 11^th round selection, especially if you need to catch up in RBIs.

Rougned Odor (Steamer Hitter Rank: 51, ADP Hitter Rank: 81, Overall ADP: 129)

Sticking with Texas once again – we have the Texas second baseman Rougned Odor, brother of Texas minor league second baseman Rougned Odor (Yes, the two brothers have the same name, play the same position, and were in the same organization).

Odor has made great strides in plate patience recently. His walk rate rose from 3% in 2016 to 5% in 2017 to 8% in 2018! His hard contact rate went from 37% in ’17 to 45% last year. His line drive rate rose from 16% to 20% as well.

Although Odor seemingly had a down year last season, there is reason to believe his surface stats will rebound – and return close to the 30 HR levels in ’16-’17 once again. He should come close to doing so with a far better batting average to boot. Odor, like Mazara, is also still quite young – as this will only be his age 25 season.

The ATC projections do not share as much optimism as Steamer does for Odor’s RBI total. ATC has Odor projected for only 76 RBI [Steamer 84], but that’s still a solid total. According to Steamer, Odor should be the 51^st hitter off of the boards, but he is being taken a number of rounds later as the 81^st hitter.

Eddie Rosario (Steamer Hitter Rank: 36, ADP Hitter Rank: 57, Overall ADP: 92)

Eddie Rosario was one of my 2018 potential breakout candidates … and he was … in the first half. Rosario amassed 18 homers, 52 HRI, 6 SBs and a .315 BA in the first half alone, which is a first round type talent. Unfortunately, injuries derailed his breakout season – with shoulder and quad injuries in the second half. Instead of prolonged DL stints, Rosario played through the injuries, which made his final full season figures not as lofty.

Rosario is trending in the right direction in many of his batted ball metrics and his plate discipline – Fewer strikeouts, more line drives, and fewer fly balls. His improvements will set a nice floor for his batting average. He is also hitting more balls in the air, which will ultimately aid his power metrics. Oh yes, and he also steals bases (close to double digits each year).

He is healthy now; his power should return in stride. Rosario is a player who has big upside. At the price he is currently being drafted at – he is a bargain even if he just repeats what he did last season. Batting in the heart of a revamped Minnesota lineup, Rosario is a player that will give you excellent run production metrics at a discount.

Yasiel Puig (Steamer Hitter Rank: 31, ADP Hitter Rank: 46, Overall ADP: 71)

Yasiel Puig traded in his Dodger blue this offseason for some Reds … Red. With that, he moves from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. He will also move from a manager who took him out of games late for defense, to a better “playing time” situation. Puig only had 405 ABs last season [some injuries] – yet managed to earn mid-teens full-season auction value.

Puig has many paths to value. He steals bases – amassing 15 in each of the past two seasons. He hits for power – clubbing an average of 26 dingers over the past two years.

His ground balls have been turning into line drives over the past few seasons – giving him a solid batting average floor. Finally, he should bat somewhere in the middle of the Cincinnati lineup, which will afford him the opportunity to pile up the RBIs.

Puig is a five-tool player and is undervalued according to the Steamer projections. Other than health, he is at low risk for poor performance. He can be acquired on average in the middle of the fifth round.  A few weeks ago, he was being drafted at the end of the sixth round – so his stock is on the rise. Grab him now, while he is still going for a small discount.

Previously, I uncovered potential undervalued speedsters and power bats by comparing the Steamer projections to the current NFBC ADP. The exercise now continues for batting average.

In 2018, there were 43 qualified players with least a .280 batting average. There were 32 players above the .290 mark, and 16 above .300. Mookie Betts led all of baseball with a .346 BA, followed by his teammate, J.D. Martinez who hit for .330.

Prospective projections though, are typically more conservative. Steamer only projects 11 regular players to bat over .290 in 2019, and only 5 players to hit for at least .300. For the following analysis, I will focus on all players with a Steamer projection of a .280 BA or more. That should give us a nice group of players who can greatly help your team’s batting average in upcoming fantasy season.

For these draft value comparisons, I look at:

• The player ranks as computed by the FanGraphs Auction Calculator with Steamer projections (standard NFBC 15 team roto league settings).
• The current NFBC ADP (of Draft Championship leagues from January 24 to present).

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You should buy an ace.

The fantasy landscape has changed dramatically over the past few years. Just a half decade ago, a mid-$20s bid at a mixed league auction would buy you a top pitcher. $30 was unheard of … for any pitcher. A non-hitter in the first round was blasphemous. Pitching was thought of to be too volatile, and far too risky to roster at such a considerable cost.

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Introduction:

The catcher position in 2019 is the weakest offensive position in our beloved fantasy baseball competition. It is no secret. Every reasonably astute or semi-intelligent fantasy player is aware of this phenomenon. The more experienced competitor is also cognizant that the position has been getting even weaker over the past few seasons.

Unlike the middle infield positions which I have discussed here, it is clear that the catcher player pool demands a correction to account for “positional scarcity.” A boost is required to the otherwise dreadfully low values that the position would manufacture on its own.

This may be elementary to some, but the idea is as follows:

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Last week, I uncovered potential undervalued speedsters by comparing the Steamer projections to the current NFBC ADP. Today, I will go through a similar exercise for power.

In 2018, just three players launched at least 40 round trippers (K Davis 48, J.D. Martinez 43, J Gallo 40). Eleven additional players smacked at least 35 dingers, and all together there were 25 players who amassed at least 30 homeruns. Let’s dive into the players with a HR projection of 25+.

For these draft value comparisons, I match:

• The player ranks as computed by the FanGraphs Auction Calculator with Steamer projections (standard NFBC 15 team roto league settings).
• The current NFBC ADP (of Draft Championship leagues from December 15, 2018 to present).

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Unless you plan on attempting to punt categories at your 2019 draft, at some point, one must acquire stolen bases. If you plan on completely ignoring the SB category – you can stop reading this article now. But for the rest of us, here is a look at where some potential bargains for speed may present itself in drafts.

For these draft value comparisons, I look at:

• The player ranks as computed by the FanGraphs Auction Calculator with Steamer projections (standard NFBC 15 team roto league settings).
• The current NFBC ADP (of Draft Championship leagues from December 1, 2018 to present).

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Introduction:

Today, I will introduce a game theory approach for comparing baseball projection systems. The day’s venture will not be a typical statistical analysis. I won’t be using any Chi-squared tests, nor will I calculate Type I or Type II errors. I won’t be evaluating MSEs or the like.

Instead, I will look to determine the profitability potential of each projection system by simulating what would have happened in a fantasy auction draft. Instead, I’ll play a game.

What do I mean by this?

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