Here’s the coldest take ever: Mike Trout should be the top pick in this year’s fantasy baseball drafts. Only slightly more lukewarm is the opinion that Mookie Betts should go second. That is the consensus among drafters in Yahoo, CBS and NFBC leagues, as well as among industry experts, according to the data compiled by FantasyPros. Jose Altuve is generally considered to be the best choice for the third pick, though Yahoo drafters are waiting until the sixth pick on average to snag the Astros’ second baseman.

If I wind up with the second overall pick in any of my upcoming drafts, I won’t be taking Betts, and I don’t think you should either. Betts did outearn Altuve (and everyone else) in Roto value a year ago, but if we take a closer look at how Betts got the top spot, it’s clear that he won’t be as likely to outgain either Trout or Altuve in value. If I can’t have Trout this year, then Altuve will be the next best thing.

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Spring training is just days away, and that’s our queue to take stock of bullpens around the majors. This is the first of six installments that will take a look at how bullpens are lining up, one division at a time. We begin with the National League Central.

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If you were inclined last spring to target an elite closer in your fantasy drafts, the 2016 season served as a cautionary tale as to why that might not be an advisable strategy the next time around. Several popular targets, most notably Wade Davis and Craig Kimbrel, didn’t quite deliver on their promise, while largely undrafted relievers like Seung Hwan Oh, Alex Colome, Sam Dyson and Edwin Diaz became reliable saves sources.

Brandon Maurer could be added to that list as well, though he won’t likely have the same appeal as the aforementioned closers. That’s because Maurer finished with a 4.52 ERA and 1.26 WHIP that would not only scare off ratio-conscious owners, but also signal his vulnerability to losing the closer’s role. After all, the Padres can also call upon lefties Ryan Buchter and Brad Hand, who had impressive 2016 seasons, or Carter Capps, once he completes his recovery from Tommy John surgery.

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Prior to the 2016 season, a number of fantasy enthusiasts — and Marlins fans — took a look at the healthy distances that Christian Yelich would hit flyballs and wondered what could be if he just hit a few more of them. This season, we got a snapshot of what that would look like. For the first time in his four-year career, Yelich hit ground balls at a rate below 60 percent (56.5 percent, to be exact) and drove his flyball rate up to a whopping 20.0 percent. Those trends, in combination with a higher hard-hit rate and a greater average flyball distance, helped Yelich to become the legitimate power source some of us dreamed of, as he hit 21 home runs and 38 doubles.

By hitting grounders at an extreme rate, Yelich wasn’t making full use of some strong power-hitting skills that his indicators suggested he owned. But could there be a hitter who does just the opposite, hitting too many flyballs in the face of flagging power indicators? If his rookie season is a sign of what’s to come, Jorge Polanco is becoming such a hitter.

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Last offseason, Jeff Sullivan noted the dramatic changes George Springer made to his contact and pull rates and how that transformation appeared to make the Astros’ right fielder a safer bet going forward. He also noted that, given the inconsistency between the results of Springer’s first two years in the majors, it was still hard to know what to expect in Season No. 3.

The suspense is over. The 2016 season is in the books, yet it’s not entirely clear what sort of performer Springer will be in 2017. We can certainly look more confidently to Springer to provide plenty of plate appearances. Not only did he serve ably as the Astros’ leadoff hitter for most of the season, but unlike in his first two seasons, Springer stayed healthy, appearing in all 162 games and starting all but one.

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