Andrew Cashner did not get much respect from fantasy owners this season. Given that he finished with the highest contact rate and lowest swinging strike rate for any qualified starting pitcher, it may look like he was undeserving of widespread ownership. Cashner’s 12.2 percent strikeout rate was lower than all qualifiers, except for Ty Blach, and that paucity of Ks usually doesn’t bode well for one’s fantasy value. Not only does it put an owner behind in the strikeout category, but K-rates inversely correlate with ERA.

Run prevention was not a problem for Cashner, as he ranked 15th among qualifiers with a 3.40 ERA. On the basis of that, along with 11 wins, a 1.32 WHIP and just 86 strikeouts, Cashner was a top-70 starter, both in Roto value (per ESPN’s Player Rater) and in CBS fantasy points. That may not sound like a big deal — okay, it’s not a big deal — but it does mean that Cashner was more valuable than several more popular starters. For example, the 31-year-old outearned Tanner Roark, John Lackey and Sean Manaea in Roto value and amassed more CBS fantasy points than Taijuan Walker.
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It’s hard to luck into a .300 batting average, but that is pretty much what happened with my bold predictions. Two of the three calls I got right — Jose Quintana’s high ERA and Nick Castellanos‘ admittance into the 25-homer club — could be at least partially explained by this season’s home run explosion. The remaining seven predictions did not age well, but they have given me new perspectives on several players, including Yuli Gurriel and Jean Segura.

1. Tom Koehler will be roughly as valuable as Matt Moore.

Moore lived down to expectations, but Koehler was still far less valuable than he was. Koehler’s slider, which was key to an extended run of success in 2016, was not an effective pitch for him in 2017. His O-Swing rate on the pitch dropped substantially, from 44.7 to 34.2 percent, and his slider strikeout rate went down, while his Iso went up. Those trends ultimately led to Koehler’s ouster from the Marlins’ rotation, though it provided him with a fresh start in the Blue Jays’ bullpen.

WRONG (0/1)
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Cody Allen is winding up his season in a bit of a funk. He did not manage to blow the Indians’ 4-0 lead against the Twins on Wednesday night, but he did allow the visitors to cut the lead in half on a Jorge Polanco two-run homer. Allen has now allowed a home run in three of his last four games, and over the three innings he pitched in those outings, he was credited with five earned runs.

Sam Dyson appeared to be cruising towards a successful finish to a bumpy 2017 season, but on Wednesday, he gave his fantasy owners reasons to have the jitters. Entering the bottom of the ninth with a 3-1 lead against the Diamondbacks, he coughed up a leadoff home run to J.D. Martinez, and in successive at-bats, allowed singles to Jake Lamb and A.J. Pollock. Three batters later, Dyson blew the save when Pollock scored on a John Ryan Murphy grounder, and then the Diamondbacks walked off on a David Peralta walk.
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If there was any uncertainty around Brad Brach taking over the closer duties for the Orioles while Zach Britton is out due to a PRP injection, we didn’t have to live with that uncertainty for very long. Brach’s first save chance in his third iteration as the Orioles’ primary closer came on Thursday night against the Rays. It had some drama, as he issued a two-out walk to Steven Souza Jr., which was followed by a J.J. Hardy error that put runners on the corners with a 3-1 lead. Brach worked out of the jam by getting Kevin Kiermaier to fly out, collecting his 18th save of the season and his first save since Aug. 27.

Mike Minor needed only six pitches to close out a 1-0 win over the Blue Jays on Thursday night, earning his second save in a week. The Royals’ closer situation is still ambiguous, though. The Kansas City Star reported that Scott Alexander has been dealing with fatigue, and may not be available for Friday’s series opener at the White Sox. Even if Minor were to get another save on Friday, that would not necessarily mean he has the closer’s job all to himself.
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Even with less than two weeks left in the season, it’s not too late for some closer turnover. Zach Britton is scheduled to get a stem cell injection in his left knee Thursday, and that will likely shelve him for the rest of the season. That probably means that Brad Brach will once again take over as the Orioles’ closer for the final nine games. The earned run that Brach allowed against the Red Sox on Tuesday was the first he had yielded in September, so he has rebounded from a difficult August. His control has been inconsistent, and that has contributed to a total of five walks in 10.1 innings this month (two of which came on Tuesday). A 64.3 percent ground ball rate has helped Brach to minimize the damage.

If you are thinking of adding a closer (or replacing Britton) for the home stretch, Brach should be sufficiently reliable. Then again, if you are in a 12-team mixed league, he is not necessarily the best option. Hector Neris, who converted his 17th straight save on Wednesday against the Dodgers, has not only been steady, but is a better option for strikeouts. As Ben Kaspick mentioned in the previous installment of the Bullpen Report, Alex Claudio was passed over for a save opportunity on Sunday, but he was back in his customary role on Tuesday, Claudio set the Mariners down in order, notching his ninth save of the season, and then he came back for a scoreless two-inning save on Wednesday.
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All that stood between the Indians and the major league record for consecutive wins with no ties was Kelvin Herrera. On a different night, it could have been Scott Alexander who was charged with protecting a streak-ending 2-1 lead for the Royals. However, the lefty had pitched on each of the two previous days, tossing a total of 37 pitches, and on five of the previous seven days. So on Thursday night, Ned Yost chose Herrera to pitch the bottom of the ninth.

It was Herrera’s first save opportunity in a week and his third appearance since being removed from the closer’s role last Friday. He was close to preventing the Indians from making history, as he worked a 1-2 count on Francisco Lindor with two outs and a runner on first. Herrera’s fourth pitch was high, and Lindor smashed his fifth pitch off the left-field wall for a game-tying double. While Herrera blew the save, he did not take the loss, as he retired Austin Jackson for the third out.
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On Wednesday, for the first time since Aug. 12, Scott Alexander gave up a run. In fact, he coughed up two of them in the ninth inning against the White Sox, taking the loss for the Royals. While Alexander’s ERA grew from 2.00 to 2.26 as a result, there is a possible silver lining in that Ned Yost entrusted him to preserve a tie in the top of the ninth. Yost also gave Alexander the ball for Tuesday’s save opportunity against the White Sox, so there is at least the appearance of him being at the head of the Royals’ closer committee.

Alexander has certainly done everything possible to earn that distinction. While going a month and 15 innings without yielding a run, Brandon Maurer has posted a 7.71 ERA over that same period. Mike Minor has been more reliable over the last 30 days, though he has been less effective at getting batters to chase pitches out of the zone (29.1 percent O-Swing rate, as compared to a 35.8 percent season-to-date mark).
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On Wednesday night, Tyler Lyons earned his second save of the season, seemingly cementing his position as the Cardinals’ primary option at closer. Yet right around the time Lyons was sewing up a 3-1 win against the Padres in San Diego, Juan Nicasio was en route to join the team, and ultimately, the mix of ninth-inning options.. The Cardinals acquired Nicasio from the Phillies in exchange for minor league second baseman Eliezer Alvarez.

As for Nicasio’s role with his second new team in the span of a week — as the Phillies claimed him off waivers from the Pirates — Mike Matheny told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch he would add the righty to the late-inning mix. Matheny added he could turn to Nicasio for the occasional save.
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Kelvin Herrera’s latest hiatus due to forearm issues was a brief one. The Royals’ closer was lifted early last Friday against the Twins with tightness in his lower forearm, but according to the Kansas City Star, he was available again for Tuesday night’s game in Detroit. The Tigers won handily, 13-2, so Herrera wasn’t needed.

Given that Herrera has been lifted twice in the last two weeks with forearm tightness, it is hard to trust that he will be healthy and effective from here on out. In both cases where Herrera had to leave early in the middle of a save opportunity, it was Scott Alexander who was called in to finish the job. On Monday, with Herrera resting, Brandon Maurer started off the ninth inning to protect a four-run lead against the Tigers, but after allowing a Nicholas Castellanos three-run homer with one out and a pair of two-out singles, Alexander had to come to the rescue again. With a Mikie Mahtook force out, Alexander got his third career save, and each one required just a single out.
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Dellin Betances is hard to figure out. Being able to make sense of his performance not only matters to Betances’ fantasy owners, but also to those who own Aroldis Chapman and are trying to determine whether they should drop him. On the Chapman side of the equation, there have been a nagging series of injuries — the latest being some discomfort in his left elbow — and his ever-declining whiff rate. One would think that would ease the concerns that Betances’ owners might have about his job security, but he has his own issues.

First, there is the matter of Betances’ inconsistency. Despite a 13.2 percent walk  rate, he was dominant in April and May this season, compiling an 0.52 ERA, an 0.98 WHIP and a 47.1 percent strikeout rate. In June and July, he walked 22 batters in 20 2/3 innings, which contributed to a 4.35 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. Then through Wednesday, Betances had rebounded in August, allowing one run over 11 innings with 16 strikeouts and four walks.
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