August xBABIP Update: The Underperformers

I last discussed the xBABIP underperformers about a month ago, so with standings shaking out and only about two months left in the season, it’s time to share one final update. Below are the fantasy relevant hitters whose Alex Chamberlain xBABIP most exceeds their actual BABIP marks. If you’re looking for a trade target, this may be a good list with which to begin your research.

A month ago, Derek Norris sat second among the underperformers, but now moves into first place, as his BABIP has actually declined from .246 to .234, but his xBABIP has also dropped by nearly the same amount. He makes for an excellent target in deeper leagues or those that require two catchers and you’re in dire need of one.

You know it’s a season to forget when your sitting on free agency in the 15-team LABR industry league. That’s what happened to Alex Gordon, who I gladly scooped up. He’s hitting home runs and stealing bases, but a significant spike in strikeout rate, combined with a BABIP well below his career average has pushed his batting average below the Mendoza Line. He’s suddenly swinging and missing like never before, but when he does make contact, his batted ball profile looks similar to his past. The only exception is a slightly elevated fly ball rate, but it’s offset by an improvement in IFFB%, so pop-ups haven’t been an issue. He also makes for a strong deeper league target and if he solves his strikeout issues, will return to shallow league relevance as well.

We all know that all xBABIP equations we have developed are flawed. One of the most significant of those is the lack of accounting for shifts. Mark Teixeira’s appearance here perfectly exemplifies what happens when such data is missing. Teixeira used to be fine from a BABIP standpoint, as he posted .300+ marks from 2005 through 2009, but since, has never posted a mark above .268. Since 2014, he hasn’t even been above .246! While I don’t have historical shift data, I am assuming that when teams started to shift him frequently, his BABIP plummeted. Fortunately, he had been able to offset the low average with excellent power. That hasn’t happened this year, mostly because his strikeout rate is up and his fly ball rate at a career low. It seems like the classic signs of a player at the end of his career. He announced that he plans to retire at the end of the year and the timing makes sense. It’s going to end a fabulous career indeed.

Adeiny Hechavarria found himself atop the month ago list and his BABIP has surged since, while his xBABIP has remained virtually unchanged. It’s too bad he’s still not much of a contributor in any counting category.

The Ryan Zimmerman DL stints continue to add up and he’s back on there with a wrist injury. I would guess he’s back when first eligible and I remain bullish on his prospects over the rest of the season.

Joe Panik’s performance illustrates the risk of betting on a player whose primary skill is BABIP. With just average power and a touch of speed, he needs that inflated batting average to be a fantasy asset. Sadly, that hasn’t happened this year thanks to a BABIP that has collapsed from .330 last year to just .248 this year. He continues to make contact an elite clip though, so the skills still look good. He’s a good target in deeper leagues if you need a second baseman.

So Jose Bautista owns just a .265 career BABIP and was only at .237 last year, plus, he finished at .215 over a partial season in 2012, so this isn’t unprecedented. Yes, his IFFB% has gotten out of control and sits at a career high, but it’s partially offset by a career best LD%. If you’re in need of power, it couldn’t hurt to seek a trade.