The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for August 8

Agenda

1. Olympic Baseball?
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Olympic Baseball?

Like most of you, I spent yesterday watching the Olympics. For me, it was mostly women’s rugby, gymnastics, and swimming. When the Olympics visit Tokyo in 2020, we’ll have baseball to watch too.

One of the biggest issues with baseball in the summer Olympics is that it clashed with the MLB season. Very few top players are willing to risk millions of dollars for pride of country – a concept that’s been dying a slow death since the end of the Cold War. If only a few major leaguers attend – the likely outcome without serious intervention in the next CBA – the U.S. team will probably be comprised of players like Eric Thames, Matt Murton, and Alex Rios. Considering the success of Thames and Murton, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

I’ll be interested to see if the games provide a platform for late-season major league reinforcements. If a free agent like Rios performs well, I could see a team with an injury stack like the Mets taking a shot on a hot hand. Of course, this is all four years away. The interesting names will change between now and then. And the pool of potential players could be diminished even more by expansion.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Rewinding to last Friday, the winner was jschweitzer with a roster led by Sweet Erv, Pedro Alvarez, Mike Zunino, and Jose Altuve. Congrats and the leaderboard is updated.

Mondays are FanDuel days – see ya there.

3. Daily DFS 

All nine games are at night. Nice. The ace of the slate is Jose Fernandez. As always, I’m worried about his price given his unspoken seven innings cap. It’s no coincidence that’s his longest/bestest outings have all ended after seven frames. He’s opposed by Johnny Cueto and the Giants. Cueto isn’t as good as Fernandez, but he costs the same because he can throw nine innings.

Michael Fulmer is in a bit of a strikeout slump. It’s possible the Mariners will help him. However, I think the lack of strikeouts relate to his increasing desire to end at bats quickly. His pitch efficiency is a commonly cited reason why he should be able to pitch all season and well into October without really blowing away his previous workloads. Seattle is sending occasionally good Hisashi Iwakuma, but I’d rather not target the Tigers offense.

Kevin Gausman, Zach Davis, Collin McHugh, and R.A. Dickey all have good matchups and the potential for a 60 point outing on FanDuel. They should be reliable mid-tier performers. They’re also all characterized by unpredictably rough rides. All four have zeroed out within their last six starts. Hell, all but Davies have zeroed out within their last three starts.

Stack Targets: Tyler Duffey, Cody Reed, Kendall Graveman, Zach Eflin, Tyler Anderson, Rob Whalen

4. SaberSim Observations

Fernandez, Julio Urias, Michael Wacha, Gausman, and Iwakuma are SaberSim’s favorites. I left Urias off my list because I’m expecting under five innings of work from him. SaberSim projects 6.1 innings which is flat out wrong. It’s the ceiling rather than the median. That will be adjusted later in the day. Wacha is a lovely pick for 50/50 games due to his consistent 35 point performances. But that’s not viable for a GPP owner.

Top stacks include the Brewers, a Coors game, Braves, Blue Jays, Astros, and Dodgers.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: The Yankees are giving Luis Severino another shot in the rotation after a successful stint in the bullpen. Let’s hope he can Carrasco this thing. Severino’s first assignment is the the Red Sox – hardly a soft landing.  With 96 mph heat, a power breaking ball, and a useful change, he should be a solid starting pitcher for years to come. If you’re worried about this specific matchup, perhaps try one of the boring command guys below.

Also consider: Chad Kuhl, Tom Koehler

Pitchers to Exploit: Daniel Norris is back in the majors. Let it be known I am not a believer in Norris’ stuff. It could work if he suddenly learned superior command. For now, he tosses too many hittable pitches. Add in that he’s a fly ball pitcher with a high HR/FB ratio and we have a problem. His opponent, the Mariners, and homer or bust.

Also consider: Tyler Chatwood, A.J. Griffin, Luis Perdomo, Drew Smyly, Tyrell Jenkins, Mike Fiers, Hector Santiago, Zach Neal, Wade Miley, Wade LeBlanc, Jered Weaver

Hitters (power): Mitch Moreland is in one of his power binges AND he has a series at Coors Field. Analysis complete.

Also consider: Franklin Gutierrez, Dae-ho Lee, Mike Zunino, Danny Valencia, Ryon Healy, Pedro Alvarez, Hyun-soo Kim, Jhonny Peralta, Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez, Matt Joyce

Hitters (speed): For the last week, I’ve been hyping this four-game Atlanta series for Hernan Perez. Now the running begins.

Also consider: Cameron Maybin, Tim Anderson, Orlando Arcia, Scooter Gennett

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

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