Auction Calculator Results: Starting Pitcher Tiers

The Auction Calculator is now loaded with the 2017 end-of-season data along with some 2018 projections. I’m sure the preceding comment will be sufficient to keep many readers busy for a while. I’m glad some came back. While its output can lead down several different discussion paths, I’m going to analyze what I consider to be the third starting pitcher tier. I feel many 2018 leagues will be won or lost by navigating this minefield.

So far this offseason, fantasy owners have placed four starters (Kluber, Kershaw, Sale, and Scherzer) in the top tier, After those four, I believe there are a dozen or so pitchers who would make acceptable aces, especially if they can be doubled up with another pitcher from this tier.

After the second tier, there seems to be a tier where it is hard to differentiate the talent. In the #2EarlyMocks, the Tier runs from about 72nd overall (Arrieta) to 191st (Bundy). I really noticed the difference while watching to NFBC style drafts at First Pitch Arizona. Here is one league’s draft board.

The third tier starts with Gerrit Cole (#74) and seemed to end with Drew Pomeranz (178th). What is the real difference between these two pitchers? Here are the Steamer projections for the pair.

Close with Cole having a nice ERA advantage. Additionally, I ran the auction calculator (Steamer projections) using my normal setup of 15 teams, no bench, and OBP. Cole ended up 24th overall with Pomeranz at 46th with a range of $9 ($15.4 to $6.5). The main difference is Cole is projected for ~20 more innings pitched. Is it worth waiting to get some arms once a team has an ace or two?

It’s time to dig a little further into this tier. First, here is one of my favorite graph to make to find various tiers. It is the action values ranked in order along with the actual values.

Additionally, here are the top 50 pitchers for reference.

The top tier is the first five pitchers since Syndergaard is projected for 191 IP. There is another tier at Carrasco ($25.5) and Bumgarner ($22.1). The talent drop is steady from there until 29th where Salazar ($13.3) drops to Lance McCullers ($11.6). So using the projections, it seems that an extra tier exists. The third tier gets split and become tiers three and four.

For the end of these two tiers, I was around the right spot with the $4 decline (rare drop near the end) happening from the 42nd to the 50th ranked starter. On average, an owner will get three of these top starters in this 15-team league.

Using a normal distribution of talent, teams will spend $30.8 on their ace (Strasburg), $16.5 on their #2 (Lester), and $9.5 on their #3 (Stroman) for a total of $56.8. A team could pair Strasburg and deGrom right off the start for $58 in value and wait on starters for a while and pick up two starters rank from 46th to 60th and still come out ahead. There are several ways to navigate these pitchers, just don’t fall too far behind because it’s becoming harder to find good pitcher during the season.

I feel like I am rambling a bit but need to get back and focused on this third tier which is now two tiers (some relievers snuck their way into the list, it happens).

• Has the dirt bike accident dropped Bumgarner down to #13 overall?
• Where is Darvish going to end up throwing?
• Can I trust Jeff Samardzija as my #2?
• Is Luke Weaver now a #2?
• Is it worth taking a chance on Rich Hill and see if he can throw more than 141 innings?
• What is Luiz Gohara doing this high?
• How healthy is Garrett Richards?
• Could I take Jon Gray as my #3?
• Or Rick Porcello?

A couple first round talents are in these tiers, it’s just figuring out the right pitcher. Basically, who is this season’s Robbie Ray and Luis Severino? Beyond finding an ace, teams can start figuring out which pitcher are likely to produce surplus value as industry rankings and more ADP values begin to roll in.