Athletics’ Playing Time Battles: Hitters
We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.
(I guess we’ve been using that italicized intro for a while now and I never noticed. My bad, my bad.)
The Oakland Athletics project to be the American League’s worst team, per FanGraphs’ depth charts. When your first basemen project to hit for a slugging percentage less than .400, it hurts. Still, the bats aren’t too bad, and some oddly-timed offseason acquisitions make the Athletics offense at least minimally appealing.
Middle Infield and the Hot Corner
Expect Marcus Semien, Jed Lowrie and freshly-acquired Chris Coghlan to split time up the middle. The former two have played second base, third base and shortstop, and the latter has played second and third bases, all as recently as last year.
Semien should see the majority of reps at shortstop. He posted double-digit home runs and stolen bases alongside a league-average .257 batting average. His 98 wRC+ ranked 6th among qualified shortstops last year, but his tumultuous midseason saw two pitiful months — 59 wRC+ in June, 26 wRC+ in July — sandwiched by four well-above-average months. The peaks and valleys hurt his ownership and obscured not only his late-season value but his 2016 preseason value as well; he ranks only 13th among shortstops in NFBC ADP.
Lowrie hasn’t been particularly relevant the last two years, but he, too, exhibited double-digit power and middling batting averages at one point. He’s an below-average BABIP (batting average on balls in play), but not .233-BABIP low, and he notched a career-best hard-hit rate (Hard%) in a small-sample window last year. He recorded more than 1,200 plate appearances between 2013 and 2014, so injury concerns might be somewhat shortsighted. At 29th off the board among shortstops (and 402nd overall), you could go extra cheap at shortstop in deep leagues and probably be OK.
Coghlan revamped his game last year, posting the lowest chase rate (O-Swing%) of his career alongside his highest hard-hit rate. He didn’t quite match 2014’s 125 wRC+ because of a 53-point deficiency in BABIP, but the double-digit power and speed in only 503 PAs made for solid value. Coghlan is a cerebral hitter and appears to have proverbially found himself. In other words, there’s no reason, aside from age-related decline, to think he couldn’t repeat his 2015 but with more gusto. And age-related concerns ought to be kept to a minimum — dude’s only 30, after all.
The three of them figure to split something like 1,500 PAs (Danny Valencia should see the bulk of the work at third base), and Coghlan will shuffle into the outfield mix as well. Barring injury, all three could see substantial-enough playing time to make them worthy targets in deep leagues at the very least; for Semien, in the shallowest leagues as well.
For the sake of mentioning them, Joey Wendle and Eric Sogard comprise Oakland’s punchless middle infield depth. Wendle has flashed marginal power and speed, but these accomplishments coincided with utter abandonment of once-promising plate discipline. He’ll need to regain the discerning approach we saw in Double-A to be the least bit appealing.
Outfield
Following the acquisition* of Khris Davis, there really aren’t any loose ends in the Athletics’ outfield: Davis in left, Billy Burns in center, Josh Reddick in right.
As aforementioned, Coghlan and his versatility will likely pick up the playing time scraps on rest days. However, Coco Crisp still exists as a living, breathing human being with at least one year remaining on his contract.
Entering his age-36 year and coming off an injury-riddled season, Crisp is not especially attractive (in fantasy terms; he’s still as dashing as ever), nor does he command playing time amid Burns’ presence. But he was perpetually above-average for the five seasons preceding 2015 — all in his 30s, mind you — flashing decent power, solid speed and excellent plate discipline.
All of those things vanished in 2015. His hard-hit rate plummeted, his strikeout rate spiked, he rarely ran. And that’s scary. But it’s hard not to attribute his deficiencies to his neck or his wrist or his elbow or whatever else ailed him last year. Crisp, like Rajai Davis, still possesses enough speed despite old age to make a difference on the basepaths. And even if the power has left his bat for good, I anticipate him returning to form in terms of plate discipline and BABIP.
If Reddick holds down the fort in right field, Crisp out to at least cede PAs from Billy Butler, who, since 2013, really has been no better a hitter than Crisp. Butler has played at least 151 games every year dating back to 2009, however, so even time spent as a designated hitter will be hard for Crisp to come by.
Still, Crisp’s name is one to remember in AL-only leagues. In the event of an injury — especially a Burns injury, knock on wood — Crisp should not only find himself in a normal role again but also contribute meaningfully to boot.
Khris Davis wasn’t a signing. He was acquired in a trade.
Good thing you pointed that out, since it completely changes the thrust of this article.
I admit one of my biggest vices as a writer is not slowing down and double-checking minutiae that, while not fundamentally affecting the analysis, impacts my credibility. I too frequently botch acquisition verbiage simply because I’m writing too quickly.
The OF section of this piece was kind of a revelation, since it strikes me as an obvious point I was missing that a possible role for Crisp is as LHB DH. Also, Coghlan can DH, he’s no asset anywhere in the field, except maybe he’s better than Davis in LF.
Surprised that you are so quick to give Valencia 3B … since Lowrie can move there to make room for Coghlan I’m not sure Valencia gets more ABs than Lowrie or Coghlan.
I’m reluctant to give Valencia third base, as I’m not really sold on him as a full-time solution. But he did well last year (135 wRC+) and the A’s probably don’t expect to contend, so I figure there’s not a lot of pressure to replace him unless he’s horrible. But I think you could be right — I did highlight all of those guys’ multipositional versatility for a reason, after all.
How much playing time do you think Mark Canha will get this year? Seems like the acquisitions of Davis and Coghlan have forced him out of the picture despite a solid 2015 performance.
Also, do you think Rangel Ravelo will crack the major league roster this year? If so, what are your expectations for him?
Canha: Tough to say. He and Alonso both excel versus righties so there’s isn’t room for a platoon. But I think the argument could be made to play either one. (I really should have discussed this.) I don’t know what the delineating element would be to choose one over the other, making it hard to place my faith in either one. Basically OBP versus power.
Ravelo: I would guess he gets a September call. Wrist injuries can be dicey so it’d be nice to see him (1) hold his own at AAA for an extended period of time, and (2) find that power again. He was never expected to hit for much power, so it’s possible it was a flash in the pan. I honestly wouldn’t expect much from him if he debuted. Maybe a decent bating average but empty otherwise.
Canha isn’t just a 1b you know. He was the presumptive LF until the A’s traded for Davis. The numbers show he was above-average in left field last year as well, so if anyone is going to bump Butler from the DH slot, it will likely cause Davis to DH and Canha to get the starts in LF. I imagine Canha gets at least as many at bats at Butler, Alonso, Davis and Reddick depending on match-ups and who gets hot.
Acknowledging that we all could tell what you were trying to say in the intro (slugging instead of OPS), a projected 0.400 OPS from your first basemen would indeed be terrible. The A’s would have to run Sonny Gray and Jesse Hahn out at first on their off days to get that kind of projection.
Ahhhh shoot. Fixed.
I’d be down to watch Sonny play first.
Why isn’t Mark Canha’s name mentioned anywhere in this article?
Good question! See my response to Lomo45 above.
This is not your fault, Alex, but the playing time summary page doesn’t have links for the last two weeks of articles under this tag.
Thanks for the heads up! I’ll let Sporer know.
Mssr. Chamberlain has as good a guess as anyone, but the A’s roster crunch it plain nuts. For a more in-depth (hah! DEPTH) playing time forecast Athletics Nation penned a pretty good read:
http://www.athleticsnation.com/2016/2/25/11116254/the-oakland-as-will-find-playing-time-for-chris-coghlan-and-mark