Are some SP more valuable in H2H Ottoneu leagues?

Ottoneu points leagues aren’t the same as 4×4 or 5×5. But there’s a subtle difference between H2H and season-long points leagues, as well. In season-long leagues, you have limits on games played for each position and innings pitched by your pitchers. That has relatively limited impact on bats, but it could theoretically impact the value of pitchers pretty significantly.

In effect, valuing any player in any fantasy format comes down to determining how much production they provide vs how much of a limited resource they use up. In a league with no limits on innings or games, the “scarce resource” is effectively a lineup spot each day. In Ottoneu, bats are valued based on production per game, because games are the limited resource you’ll run out of. That’s true for season-long leagues (limit of 162 games per position over the season). For H2H leagues, your resource is technically one lineup spot per position per day. That means a player who often plays double headers might be more valuable than one who doesn’t. But that doesn’t change how you value players at auction or via trade. It just impacts how you set your lineup when a DH is scheduled.

But for pitchers, the resource changes. Instead of being limited to 1500 IP over the season, most Ottoneu H2H leagues limit you to a certain number of starts per week and 5 RP spots per day. We’ll table RP for now.

When you limit a team to X starts per week, you’ve changed the scarce resource from IP to starts. And that can potentially shift player values. I looked at this a few years ago, and gave some illustrative examples. The final analysis in that article was that if you can target pitchers who go deep into games in H2H leagues, you can potentially find some good values.

But one thing I didn’t look at was how often pitchers who were better by P/GS in one year were better by P/GS the next year, as well. This year, I pulled all SP with 100+ IP from each of the last four seasons, and ranked pitchers within each year by P/IP and P/GS. Exactly six pitchers threw over 100 IP as a starter in each of the last four years AND ranked better by P/GS than P/IP in each of the last four years. Are any of them worth making priority targets in your 2026 H2H leagues?

• Tyler Anderson

Anderson had that outlier 2022 when he was not only useful, but legitimately excellent. Since then, while he has been better on a per start basis, he hasn’t actually been good. In 2023 and 2025, he has been too poor a performer to justify rostering. In 2024, he was maybe a $1 depth piece in H2H, while being…slightly less likely to be maybe a $1 depth piece in season-long formats. If Anderson is pitching well, he might have a bit more juice in H2H, but he isn’t a guy I am going to target.

• Michael Wacha

Wacha is certainly more valuable than Anderson, as he has been a top 45 SP – by either metric – each of the last three seasons. And while he did, technically, perform better on a per start basis every year, the differences are negligible. How much more are you spending an SP you expect to be #40 vs. #44? And that is the biggest gain we have seen from him. Wacha is a worthwhile target, but not particular to H2H formats.

• Luis Castillo

Now this is a bit interesting. Even the near-ace-tier Castillo of a couple years back was a few spots better for H2H. I know I just said Wacha’s four-spot gain didn’t matter, and now I am telling you Castillo’s 4-5 spot gain does. But last year my $21-$27 SP tier stretched from #13 to #25. Gaining 4-5 spots out of 13 in a tier that stretches $7 is worth more than $2. Meanwhile, my $10-$14 tier went from #38 to #51. Moving up a four spots in that tier is maybe worth $1. On top of that, as Castillo has gotten less valuable overall, the gap in his P/IP value and his P/GS value has grown. Even as he is less productive per inning, the Mariners clearly still trust him to go deep into games. That’s worth tracking for next year.

• José Berríos

Berríos is a bit of a conundrum for me. In 2022, he just wasn’t good. In 2023 and 2024, his gains were meaningful. But in 2025, his IP/GS dropped quite a bit and as a result he was simply not that valuable by either measure. Going into 2026, he is probably a guy I’ll view as a late round flier in leagues where you need a reliable arm who can give you innings. I’ll probably be a bit more likely to spend that $1-$3 on him in H2H than in season-long leagues, but not a ton.

• Jameson Taillon

Taillon seems to be establishing himself as more of a per-start gainer over the last couple of years. He isn’t particularly exciting for Ottoneu points leagues, in general, but I do think he’s more intriguing in H2H. The Cubs have him locked up through 2026, but not beyond. They have some young SP and SP with injury histories they will want to protect, and that means protecting the bullpen somewhere. Taillon being a high volume SP would make sense.

• Framber Valdez

Now we’re talking. Valdez, not surprisingly, goes deep enough into games regularly enough that – except for this year – he has generally been a full tier (or maybe more, in 2022) more valuable in H2H than in season-long formats. He’s a guy I like to target in any league, but in H2H, I’ll push further for him.

Let’s also do a lightning round through a set of pitchers who were better per start in at least three of the last four years:

• Zack Wheeler – 4 years eligible (at least 100 IP as a SP), 3 years better (on a per start basis vs. per IP) – Wheeler has absolutely been a guy I prefer to target in H2H, but given his new health concerns, I think I’ll be pretty risk averse on him, overall, including being unwilling to assume high volume per start.
• Sandy Alcantara – 3 years eligible, 3 years better – The fact that he ranked better this year (63rd vs. 72nd), coming off injury, gives me confidence he’ll keep up this trend.
• Ranger Suárez – 4 years eligible, 3 years better – The gains each year have been small and we don’t yet know where he will be pitching next year. One thing I noticed was that some teams – Philly and Cleveland stand out – are more likely to have guys on these lists each year, even if not the same guys. If Ranger is back with Philly, I am going to push him up for H2H. If not, I might not.
• Pablo López – 3 years eligible, 3 years better – I will almost never bet on high volume from a guy who is injured to end the season, especially when he has a bit of an injury history.
• Nathan Eovaldi – 4 years eligible, 3 years better – The only year he was NOT better was this year, when he was 4th per IP and 7th per GS. I am not holding that against him.
• Mitch Keller – 4 years eligible, 3 years better – This is three straight years for him. I am not a huge believer overall, but I do like him more in H2H.
• Miles Mikolas – 4 years eligible, 3 years better – This is driven by 2022 and 2023. 2024 he was better by P/GS but not much and 2025 he was worse. No bump for him.
• Merrill Kelly 켈리 – 3 years eligible, 3 years better – Going deep seems to be a strength and a skill for him enough so to justify betting on it.
• Max Fried – 3 years eligible, 3 years better – The gap was much smaller this year. That could easily be a result of the org, or even the home park. Either way, I probably won’t boost him much, if at all, for H2H.
• Lucas Giolito – 3 years eligible, 3 years better – It’s only about six spots each year and it is far enough down the rankings to make those six spots kinda moot. Sort of the poor man’s Wacha – maybe you go an extra buck (which might mean $1 instead of $0) but that’s about it.
• Logan Webb – 4 years eligible, 3 years better – This was the only year he wasn’t better, ranking 13th by P/IP and 14th by P/GS. But his overall volume – he made 34 starts this year – has real value in H2H. In season-long, I don’t care if I get 12 starts this week and only 6 next. But in H2H, I need volume every. single. week. Webb is as good a bet as any to bring that, so he gets a H2H boost.
• Logan Gilbert – 4 years eligible, 3 years better – Like his fellow Logan, this year was the outlier for Gilbert. Unlike Webb, Gilbert missed some time this year. That said, I still think he is a safe bet to pile up innings and I suspect the dip in P/GS scoring this year is related to that missed time. He went just 3 IP on April 25, was out until June 16, and didn’t go 6+ again until July 22. When he is healthy, I think you can rely on him to be better per game than per inning.
• Kyle Gibson – 3 years eligible, 3 years better – He retired, so not sure this matters.
• Kyle Freeland – 4 years eligible, 3 years better – In 2022, he was 87th best by P/GS. Other than that, he has never been a top 90 pitcher by either metric. Even if you want to give him credit for volume in H2H, it moves him from a $0 pitcher to a $0 pitcher who is maybe closer to a $1 pitcher. That might be the fault of Coors, and not Freeland, but for our purposes, it doesn’t matter.
• Kevin Gausman – 4 years eligible,  3 years better – This is skewed towards this year, as his gains have been four, seven, and one spots the last three years. That one was from six to five, and the four from 22 to 18. Yes, I do want Gausman more in H2H.
• Corbin Burnes – 3 years eligible, 3 years better – In 2027, pending his 2026 return, I might prefer him in H2H. In 2026, not at all.
• Chris Bassitt – 4 years eligible, 3 years better – This is mostly a remnant of a previous version of Bassitt. Last year he was outside the top 75 by both metrics. This year he was one spot worse (68 vs 67) per game. No boost for me.
• Brady Singer – 4 years eligible, 3 years better – He hasn’t been meaningfully better since 2022.
• Aaron Nola – 3 years eligible, 3 years better – This year was the outlier, as didn’t cross 100 IP (and pitched poorly). I think he is a decent buy-low candidate for next year, and I do think I will be more likely to make that buy in H2H.