Anthony Rendon: Breakout Bargain Bonanza
Anthony Rendon turned in an excellent 2014 season en route to a $26 valuation. His 111 runs were third best in the league, and his 21 home runs, 83 RBI, 17 stolen bases, and .287 average were all above average. He was the most valuable third baseman and third best second baseman. That flexibility only compounded his value. He cost just $3 on average according to FantasyPros, with a high of $12. Any way you slice it, he was a steal.
He won’t be cheap next year – at least not in redraft leagues. The question is, will the cost be justified? He’ll bat atop the Nationals lineup, which may lose Adam LaRoche but should remain potent. As such, he could again eclipse 100 runs scored. Steamer projects a fantasy line of 88/19/72/11/.278, which I find to be slightly on the bearish side of my average expectations. Rendon’s only been gathering professional numbers since 2012, so it’s unsurprising to see Steamer regress him straight towards league average.
Entering his age 25 season, there’s may be as much chance for further growth as decline. Rendon was considered injury prone when he was drafted, but it’s possible a professional lifestyle (and trainers) have prepared him for the rigors of the regular season. He played 153 games between two positions this season, and he’ll likely fill a similar role in 2015.
His plate discipline is the foundation of his success. He swung and missed just five percent of the time, which led to a respectable 15 percent strikeout rate. Rendon laid off pitches both in and out of the zone, taking nearly eight percent more balls and four percent more strikes than the average hitter. The discipline served him well with a .351 on base percentage.
He has a reputation for making high quality contact. In some ways, I’m reminded of Michael Young in his prime, which is one reason I see a possibility for improvement. However, Rendon had an evenly distributed batted ball profile, with 20 percent line drives and 40 percent ground balls and fly balls. Young succeeded by hitting few fly balls, which buffed his BABIP. As such, Rendon isn’t likely to top a .300 average without a change in batted ball profile or some good old fashioned luck.
There is also upside in Rendon’s power. Over 10 percent of his fly balls left the yard, which ties him with Charlie Blackmon for the 65th highest HR/FB ratio. However, his average fly ball distance of 287 feet was similar to Edwin Encarnacion and Ryan Howard. He whapped 39 doubles and could see a few more of those sneak over the wall as he enters his power prime.
As for areas of concern, they are few and far between. He’s best against fastballs (see chart below), so pitchers could flip more breaking balls and change ups his way. However, I’m not inclined to think that his weakness is similar to that of Howard or Josh Hamilton. In other words, if he sees more benders, he’ll probably just adjust. While he does favor the left side of the infield, he’s not quite shiftable. Since an actual weakness is not apparent, opposing pitchers have focused on pitching him low and away to mitigate his power.
A walk through the data reveals almost no negatives about Rendon. He’s young, produces in all five categories, is flexible, and has a great supporting cast. He’ll be a hot commodity during draft season, and the attention will be justified. While upside exists on his Steamer projection and 2014 numbers, we’re talking about a modest improvement rather than another leap in value. If you’re looking to score big at third base (or second base), then Rendon may not be your guy. I’m betting he’ll play to cost. Of course, if you have the budget and the price is reasonable, you’d be a fool to pass on such a useful building block.
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In my keep-players-forever league, I managed to acquire Rendon for the low, low price of K-Rod. I have a hunch I’m going to like that deal for a few more years.
That deal took some big brass balls
The big question mark to me is the steals, since he wasn’t known for speed before this season, and that surprise SB contribution was a big part of his surplus value.
What round would you forsee Rendon going in next year? Maybe the third? I was thinking about targeting Rendon next year but I think I’d almost rather target Betts late and draft a shortstop early (Tulo/Desmond).
Without looking through the players, a 5 category, 2b/3b should be a top 20 value.
I am always hesitant to acquire player in the first 1-3 rounds who went so late the year before. It feels like too much risk that early.
Case and point: Chris Davis.
Cast and not point: Jose Bautista
You can add Mike Trout to your list, by the way.
I agree. People are prone to overreacting to breakout years and reaching pretty hard the following year. It’s fun to get excited about young players potentially getting better, but for every Bautista (ok, not that young, but bear with me), there is a Lawrie or Heyward or Davis or Headley or Aaron Hill or….
There is a big difference between paying for a journeyman’s career year and paying for the breakout year of a 25-year old former college player of the year with strong minor league stats. The latter isn’t risk-free, but it’s a much safer bet.
Thank you Other Patrick!
I am not against drafting those players those players early. It depends on the player. To me, they usually go too high. Trout is an exception. He was a top, top prospect with an amazing year under his belt. I still would have been hesitant to take him in the top 5 in 2013.
Later on in the draft I am much more willing to take risks.
Who would be your early prediction for next seasons big breakout performer? Any one on your radar as of now? thanks!
I haven’t done much of a deep dive just yet. I have a deep list of mid tier bargains I need to analyze, but I haven’t done so yet.
Chris Owings comes to mind as a guy I think is much better than he’s shown.
What kind of stat line do you see for owings next season if all goes well? his minor league stat line looks like he has a little power/ speed combo potential. thanks!
I think the good scenario is 10-15 HR, 10-15 SB, 80R, 50RBI, and a .285 AVG. I’m picturing him batting second.