Anthony Rendon: Breakout Bargain Bonanza

Anthony Rendon turned in an excellent 2014 season en route to a $26 valuation. His 111 runs were third best in the league, and his 21 home runs, 83 RBI, 17 stolen bases, and .287 average were all above average. He was the most valuable third baseman and third best second baseman. That flexibility only compounded his value. He cost just $3 on average according to FantasyPros, with a high of $12. Any way you slice it, he was a steal.

He won’t be cheap next year – at least not in redraft leagues. The question is, will the cost be justified? He’ll bat atop the Nationals lineup, which may lose Adam LaRoche but should remain potent. As such, he could again eclipse 100 runs scored. Steamer projects a fantasy line of 88/19/72/11/.278, which I find to be slightly on the bearish side of my average expectations. Rendon’s only been gathering professional numbers since 2012, so it’s unsurprising to see Steamer regress him straight towards league average.

Entering his age 25 season, there’s may be as much chance for further growth as decline. Rendon was considered injury prone when he was drafted, but it’s possible a professional lifestyle (and trainers) have prepared him for the rigors of the regular season. He played 153 games between two positions this season, and he’ll likely fill a similar role in 2015.

His plate discipline is the foundation of his success. He swung and missed just five percent of the time, which led to a respectable 15 percent strikeout rate. Rendon laid off pitches both in and out of the zone, taking nearly eight percent more balls and four percent more strikes than the average hitter. The discipline served him well with a .351 on base percentage.

He has a reputation for making high quality contact. In some ways, I’m reminded of Michael Young in his prime, which is one reason I see a possibility for improvement. However, Rendon had an evenly distributed batted ball profile, with 20 percent line drives and 40 percent ground balls and fly balls. Young succeeded by hitting few fly balls, which buffed his BABIP. As such, Rendon isn’t likely to top a .300 average without a change in batted ball profile or some good old fashioned luck.

There is also upside in Rendon’s power. Over 10 percent of his fly balls left the yard, which ties him with Charlie Blackmon for the 65th highest HR/FB ratio. However, his average fly ball distance of 287 feet was similar to Edwin Encarnacion and Ryan Howard. He whapped 39 doubles and could see a few more of those sneak over the wall as he enters his power prime.

As for areas of concern, they are few and far between. He’s best against fastballs (see chart below), so pitchers could flip more breaking balls and change ups his way. However, I’m not inclined to think that his weakness is similar to that of Howard or Josh Hamilton. In other words, if he sees more benders, he’ll probably just adjust. While he does favor the left side of the infield, he’s not quite shiftable. Since an actual weakness is not apparent, opposing pitchers have focused on pitching him low and away to mitigate his power.

A walk through the data reveals almost no negatives about Rendon. He’s young, produces in all five categories, is flexible, and has a great supporting cast. He’ll be a hot commodity during draft season, and the attention will be justified. While upside exists on his Steamer projection and 2014 numbers, we’re talking about a modest improvement rather than another leap in value. If you’re looking to score big at third base (or second base), then Rendon may not be your guy. I’m betting he’ll play to cost. Of course, if you have the budget and the price is reasonable, you’d be a fool to pass on such a useful building block.