All Star Break Consensus Ranks: Second Base
At the beginning of the year, I thought this might be the worst position in baseball. It might still be when all is said and done, but there are positive things you can say about this group, too.
There are actually some great young players at the position. Jason Kipnis has zoomed to the top. Jose Altuve probably won’t ever be a true-talent top three guy, but for batting average and speed, he looks like a steady contributor. Kyle Seager is a find. Matt Carpenter was a favorite of ours, but he’s outproduced even our more rosy projections. Jedd Gyorko has a nice compact, fast swing and looks like he’ll have a bit of power. Anthony Rendon, well we have to see about his strikeout rate, but he’s looking good too. Nick Franklin! And maybe even Jurickson Profar.
And you still have the useful veterans sprinkled in. In fact, these rankings go so deep that they make an argument against position scarcity. Well, not completely, you still see that these aren’t first basemen. But! Why reach in a twelve-team mixer if the 12th-ranked second baseman should hit .300 with 15-homer power? You could make a Chase Utley – Neil Walker old man – old man platoon work, even if they only have one healthy knee between them.
Second base: not quite as bad as we thought it would be.
With the color-coding we hope to highlight the biggest movers. That definition changes as you follow the ranks down the list — players had to move more to register a color change as you near the bottom of the list. These are rest-of-season rankings for 5×5 roto. Jeff Zimmerman’s rankings are a combination of ZiPs and Steamer rest-of-season projections with playing time determined by our depth charts. You can find the projections on every player page and the depth charts here.
| RG | Player | ES | JZ | MP | ZS |
| 1 | Robinson Cano | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Jason Kipnis | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Dustin Pedroia | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| 4 | Ian Kinsler | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 5 | Jose Altuve | 5 | 3 | 8 | 8 |
| 6 | Aaron Hill | 7 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | Brandon Phillips | 6 | 6 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Kyle Seager | 11 | 8 | 10 | 5 |
| 9 | Ben Zobrist | 10 | 7 | 7 | 11 |
| 10 | Howie Kendrick | 8 | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| 11 | Everth Cabrera | 9 | 16 | 11 | 13 |
| 12 | Matt Carpenter | 12 | 25 | 14 | 7 |
| 13 | Chase Utley | 15 | 19 | 12 | 14 |
| 14 | Martin Prado | 14 | 10 | 20 | 20 |
| 15 | Neil Walker | 13 | 13 | 16 | 24 |
| 16 | Jedd Gyorko | 19 | 23 | 15 | 15 |
| 17 | Rickie Weeks | 16 | 15 | 13 | 29 |
| 18 | Michael Young | 21 | 18 | 22 | 19 |
| 19 | Anthony Rendon | 23 | 20 | 21 | 17 |
| 20 | Dan Uggla | 18 | 20 | 17 | 27 |
| 21 | Daniel Murphy | 22 | 14 | 23 | 23 |
| 22 | Jed Lowrie | 20 | 35 | 19 | 9 |
| 23 | Nick Franklin | 17 | 39 | 18 | 16 |
| 24 | Omar Infante | 26 | 17 | 27 | 21 |
| 25 | Marco Scutaro | 27 | 21 | 26 | 18 |
| 26 | Josh Rutledge | 25 | 12 | 32 | 33 |
| 27 | Gordon Beckham | 28 | 22 | 30 | 39 |
| 28 | Kelly Johnson | 38 | 31 | 28 | 25 |
| 29 | Jurickson Profar | 33 | 37 | 34 | 22 |
| 30 | Dustin Ackley | 29 | 24 | 33 | 41 |
| 31 | DJ LeMahieu | 24 | 36 | 29 | 45 |
| 32 | Darwin Barney | 30 | 27 | 35 | 42 |
| 33 | Brian Dozier | 35 | 45 | 24 | 31 |
| 34 | Mike Aviles | 37 | 34 | 38 | 26 |
| 35 | Derek Dietrich | 39 | 28 | 25 | 45 |
| 36 | Jeff Keppinger | 31 | 29 | 40 | 38 |
| 37 | Emilio Bonifacio | 32 | 32 | 31 | 45 |
| 38 | Mark Ellis | 34 | 45 | 37 | 28 |
| 39 | Cliff Pennington | 36 | 38 | 45 | 35 |
| 40 | Maicer Izturis | 41 | 45 | 39 | 36 |
| 41 | Jordany Valdespin | 40 | 40 | 45 | 45 |
Also ranked once were Danny Espinosa, Scooter Gennett, Cesar Hernandez, Eric Sogard, Brock Holt, Donovan Solano, and Chris Nelson.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Not sure I understand why Aaron Hill is 2 spots above Seager. Longer track record? Better team for R/RBI? I think that might well be offset somewhat by age and health concerns.
Personally, I can say the ballpark and time of year had a lot to do with it. Arizona in the summer is going to be fun for Hill.
Not to mention hitting in front of Goldy.
But, even then, I had Seager above Hill, but that was the consideration that took place in my brain.
Goldy is hitting in front of Hill now. Pay attention.
Man I’m getting frustrated with Zobrist. I love the guy because he represents all that’s great about sabermetrics, but holy hell he’s been steadily declining for what, the last 3 years? I want to keep him for his position eligibility, and because he does a little bit of this and a little bit of that, but argh he’s frustrating. I’m damn near close to getting rid of him.
suck his big allstar
These comments sections need more concept-based participants. I support a cuckold themed regular commenter.
Zobrist has always been overrated by this site and others …
overrated? really? from 2009-2012, guess how many position players have more combined WAR than Ben Zobrist? One. Miguel Cabrera. And he’s barely ahead.
*I understand a large % of his WAR comes from his immense defensive value, so no need to point that out.
How does WAR directly relate to fantasy? I guess he helps in every cat except AVG, and he’s unremarkable but consistent. If it wasn’t for his multi-position eligibility, I’m thinking he’d be ranked lower.
I’ve got Mr. Kinsler on my team and I think a #4 ranking is a little generous…
He’s not hitting for power…he’s not stealing bags…and his average has been dipping ever since he returned from injury.
I’m skeptical that he’ll hit 20 HRs and steal 15 bags this year…and if his average is anywhere close to where it was last year then he’s definitely not worth his draft position…and a spot on a fantasy squad is even questionable…
20 HR and 15 Steals is pretty money for a 2b. Are there really any more than 5-6 second basement you would take over Kinsler?
Then why is Kendrick ranked 10th? He’ll have those numbers with a superior batting avg.
Why – History! Projecting Kendrick to keep playing at a level he’s never achieved and projecting Kinsler to play worse than he has in the past is not how projections work. Considering the first half numbers, Kendrick will probably be a better 2B than Kinsler was this year, but for the 2nd half alone, give me Kinsler!
JZ’s rankings seem like at this point he’s just intentionally ignoring what’s happened so far this season to ruin these rankings. Franklin is ranked below Aviles, Ackley, and Pennington. Franklin’s track record doesn’t make his performance in his first 40 games seem that crazy, and certainly better than his teammate who lost the job to him, and two guys who don’t have starting jobs anymore.
…and here we go…
what a novel idea.. let’s complain about zimmerman’s usage of projection based rankings.
very original.
Almost as original as people complaining about people complaining about Zimm’s rankings.
Methinks these aren’t going to go away and an explanation riding alongside all consensus articles wouldn’t hurt. For those of us who are new to them and/or cannot read. Although the lack of clarity does offer some interesting discussion in the comments….
Added something. Who knows if it will help. We’ll also look into adding back in some form of RL for missing playing time on injury-prone players.
A mere explanation can’t possibly help. Face it — at least 50% of the population (probably closer to 99%) are now pod people
Where would Lawrie be ranked once (if?) he gains 2B eligibility?
For me, he’d be in the 14/15/16 range.
Lawrie behind Howie if he gains eligibility?
How is Uggla at 20? He’ll get 20 HRs, 20 singles, and 200 strikeouts. Nothing else. And he won’t bat his weight.
well, he’s got 18 HR now. Kinda think he might hit more than 2 in the second half.
The magic of Seager is impressive… He’s ranked #9, but still manages to appear above Zobrist, who’s ranked #8.
Why does Zimmerman rank Carpenter at #25? Is he projecting him to have a horrible 2nd half? Is he saying his 1st half #s were lucky? I’m new to sabre-metrics so I’m curious as to the low ranking when each time I watch him bat, he looks rock solid.
Zimmerman uses projections, which you can see on the player page. One problem for Carpenter is that Steamer doesn’t project him into full playing time going forward, probably because he’s a rookie. The other is that both projection systems don’t believe he can sustain a .352 BABIP. And both think he’s a bit over his head for power. I think the runs are good enough to put him in the top twelve, but I agree he’s probably .280+ with about five homers the rest of the way, if we use his minor league work as a track record.
Thank you Eno.
the low ranking of Matt Carpenter in both the 1B and 2B rankings is quite perplexing if you ask me. Talking about a guy who is currently on pace to post .321, 125 runs, 49 doubles, 7 triples, 16 HR, 78 RBI, 68/89 BB/K, .394 OBP, and near .900 OPS. Seems a little ridiculous.
it is cause by JZ’s projection rankings which in turn are so low on Carpenter because he is not projected for full playing time.
yeah, I get that part, but others still have him listed at 12 and 11, which IMO, is still far too low.
Why even put his rankings in there if they are no thought from him. Just total up the projections (even if they think carpenter will be a part time pleyer the rest of the way) and poof…there’s his score. I thought the authors on this site were known for their insight and analysis…not just repeating others projections.
There is a thought process to JZ’s work, he’s made a custom method to blend the projections systems available.
Unfortunately you don’t get to stop the season at the All-Star Break and just book their “on pace for” numbers. They actually have to play the second half, and you have to project that.
Why am I not surprised that Zimmerman, who ranked Bud Norris ahead of Chris Sale in last year’s All-Star break rankings, has absurd second base rankings? Matt Carpenter at 25? Josh Rutledge at 12? Omar Infante (17) ahead of Chase Utley (19)? At least Zimmerman’s consistent…
Brad Miller has started 4 games at 2B for SEA. Could gain 2B eligibility soon.
Altuve is awful high.
Take out “high.”
It’s really frustrating how bad he has been since May.
Name rec after a little over a year and a half. He helps in two cats, but virtually nothing else.
Everth doesn’t have 2B elig?
In Yahoo he does, and we basically use Yahoo’s definitions.
Yahoo is terrible. 10 career games at 2b. 5 in 2012, 0 in 2013.
Why? Those are about the loosest definitions. It’s a terrible site for terrible people.
Five games is fine for me. I love Yahoo’s interface, and I feel they are dedicated to improving the game in a way that CBS and ESPN haven’t really shown they are. What’s your preferred system?
Why even include Jeff if he’s not going to do any work on this? Just say it’s a projection aggregation and move on, then you won’t get complaints from people. It is the simplest thing in the world to realize some players are going to get more/less playing time at the midway point than their projections at the beginning of the season, which may have been based on depth or performance which changed drastically in some cases. Jeff could do this but he hasn’t, so he’s really not contributing anything.
You know what’s way harder than ignoring one column? Running a system that combines information from two projection systems and the depth charts on these sites (so yes, playing time is accounted for) and then uses fantasy replacement level to spit out a value for these rankings. I know how much work he does on these.
He runs his system, it spits out a ranking. The vultures convene on it in the rankings. Yes, people will never agree and that’s the point of driving discussion, but come on, his are so far off base from what the other 3 of you have listed and what common sense would dictate for players like Matt Carpenter or Josh Rutledge, as extreme examples of the playing time point.
We can’t ignore his column because the other 3 of you didn’t, and it reflects in the overall rankings where it is weighted equally with all of yours.
It is apparently no longer possible to actually have an opinion that isn’t the same as everyone else’s without being accused of “lacking common sense” or “defying scientific consensus” or somesuch epithet
You should look up the definition of epithet before rushing to post your sycophant comment, homeboy. JZ doesn’t have a different opinion, he has an outdated opinion based on outdated data that he doesn’t apparently care enough to update.
I submitted a community post about my methodology using the ZIPS projections to determine fantasy value over replacements (while accounting for playing time). However, my excel sheet wouldn’t upload properly. If you are interested in it I’m more than willing to share it.
It’s work that everyone hates. Why don’t you get this? It’s bad work that everyone hates and complains about.
We hate his hard work. We wish he didn’t work so hard, and that his work wasn’t included at all. We wish his work, provided to us for free, did not exist at all.
You are incorrect, not everyone hates it, just a few vocal people who feel the need to vocalize EVERY time.
Including a computer generated projection as 25% of the overall ranking isn’t “bad work”, it’s smart hedging. It’s an unbiased mathematical model that serves as a built-in hedge against overreaction by flawed human rankings. Get over it.
Neil Walker is 27, hardly old. I sure as hell hope you were not thinking of Todd Walker.
If Zimmerman’s rankings are based on his projection system, then he needs to revisit his formula.
I appreciate that four fantasy baseball writers can have such varying opinions (such as JZ’s). I’m honestly curious, however, how JZ is doing in his fantasy leagues this year using his formula. It would be interesting to compare and contrast different fantasy strategies with results.
There should be more love for Everth! He’s going to win you SB almost by himself (on pace for a little under 60 despite missing time) and doesn’t kill you in the other categories. He’s the only major steals-guy that pulls his weight. That makes him solid gold to me.
For me, when it comes to middle infielders, I look at HR+SB for guys and for guys who don’t handicap me too much in other categories. I’d rather have Everth’s 7 HR and 60 SB (67) than Aaron Hill (projected total of 15 by ZiPS), or Zobrist (24).
Heck, I mean, Altuve is basically the same player without the steals, as he’s projected to finish up with 6 HR and 36 SB (41 total). He’s also got a significantly weaker slash line .280/.315/.352 than Everth does .291/.373/.396 yet you have Altuve at #5 overall.
I disagree with your fundamental premise as applied to a H2H league. I’d rather win steals 5-4 and HRs 9-8 in a given week than win steals 12-4 and lose HRs 8-6. Certainly a guy like Everth has a lot of value in H2H, but often the “one-category monsters” aren’t as valuable as the guys who can contribute across 5 categories.
really? youd rather win 2 categories by a close margin rather than only 1(and lose 1) by a large margin? what intellectual depth.
The premise isn’t that I’d rather go 2-0 instead of 1-1 in steals and HRs. The premise is that players who dominate one category aren’t as useful as 4- or 5-category guys in H2H, at least in my opinion.
Glad you glommed on to my specific hypothetical (and used it to insult me) instead of considering the broader point I was making.
There’s less variance in a 5/60 guy than a 15/15 guy.
Would you rather take a guy that will get you roughly 3 steals EVERY WEEK?
Or a guy that will get you an average of .5 HR/SB per week?
The 2nd option is a drop in the bucket for those categories. The 1st option is a huge advantage in that category every single week.
My preference is to load up on several 4- or 5-category guys which helps eliminate some variance that might appear in any given individual case. While I agree that a 5/60 guy is more consistently going to win you steals, what happens when he gets injured? Suddenly you have zero speed. If you have several 15/15 guys, you can more easily absorb one of them going down.
A humble suggestion: instead of labeling the projections “JZ”, come up with some fancy-pants name for the projection system he uses. A lot of the frustration seems to stem from the sense that his rankings aren’t actually “his”. If the point of including his rankings is that they are a (relatively) agnostic projection counterweight to our irrational human overexcitement, it might help to make that more obvious in the nomenclature.
There is not a single comment that actually objects to his use of projection system. They all simply object to “his system doesn’t agree with everyone else re this player” and then uses “projection system methodology” as a conformity stick.
Personally I’ve always thought projection systems adjust too slowly to skill changes. But then again, it is hard to tell the difference between skill changes and a hitting streak (or skill declines and a hitting slump). Even harder to quantify the former moving forward.
his projection system doesn’t account for playing time. Therefore when steamer has Chris Davis out for 15 games, his system assumes that spot is just dead rather than being filled with a waiver wire quality player. Its why a lot of his rankings are whacky.
his system has absolutely nothing to do with fantasy baseball.
A projection systen cannot weigh real world information such as injuries and a teams depth at a givin position. I think that’s the problem most of us have with JZ’s rankings (those of us who disagree).
I really hope Franklin doesn’t read fangraphs. Those rankings are cold blooded.
odd that Hill winds up higher than Phillips on the composite even though 3 of 4 project Phillips as the better option (yes, I understand that its because ZS irrationally believes Seager (in that offense), Altuve (with that power), Lowrie (with all his injuries) and Carpenter (with, well something) are all better options than Phillips)
Why is Infante is always underrated?
The preseason consensus rankings had sortable columns on the page if I’m correct. Why not this edition?
So, what’s the real reason behind Kendrick’s 10th ranking? He’s a 20/15 guy with a great average.
Why is it that when Rendon is mentioned, his strikeout rate is listed as a concern? It is above league average right now, during his rookie season, in which he is 23. What gives? Can someone please enlighten me?
I mistakenly used above instead of below. I meant to imply that it is better than league average right now.
I was wondering about that as well. He was the best pure hitter in a very good draft so those strikeout concerns are vastly overblown.
Given his 17.5% overall strikeout rate in the minors, I’d say his current strikeout rate is on the upper end of his possible outcomes. Doesn’t mean it’s not real.
Eno… I appreciate the response, but it didn’t really clarify why his current strikeout rate is concerning. I understand it is “real”, but even if it remained at the current rate for his career, it is by no means a concerning strikeout rate.
I’m saying that it could not be real, because I’d predict a higher MLB strikeout rate for a guy that had that MiLB strikeout rate.
Carpenter has a first half with a .352 BABIP and .176 ISO and the thought is that is a bit over his head so expect a drop.
2012 BABIP .346. ISO .169
2011 (AAA). BABIP .331. ISO .164
2010 (AA) BABIP .377. ISO .172
Is his performance this year really that far from his track record?
pretty sure minor league BABIPs don’t translate to the major league level. at least their hasn’t been any direct link proven yet.
In a 6×6 16-team league with extra-base hits and complete games, I need the complete games and most pitching stats in general. I just offered Jose Iglesias, Steve Cishek, and David Freese for Jedd Gyorko, Mat Latos, and Justin Masterson. Good deal?
At this point in the season, you know your team’s strengths and weaknesses. Hence, it is all about the categories. If you are basing your rankings on a traditional 5 by 5 league, how can Altuve be far ahead of Uggla?
If you rank each second baseman on a scale of 1 to 10 in the five categories, Uggla will come out ahead, even with is 1 in batting average.
Altuve scores near the bottom in HRs and RBIs. Surprisingly he does not help you in runs either. His batting average is okay, but not a huge asset. So unless you really need stolen bases there is no reason to even start Altuve regardless of your team.
I would rather look to balance my batting average around Uggla and get elite power numbers and excellent run numbers opposed to what amounts to mostly a hole with Altuve.
In OBP leagues, Uggla is far superior to Altuve too….
I have been a past complainer of JZ and every consensus article has multiple comments dedicated to complaining. We have known the source and reason for the weird rankings for some time now, so let me know change the subject of the complaint. What the hell is going on with the rest of season projections? I get that complaining about free baseball info on this site gets a few people riled up here, but I just bought some funny T-shirts, so I think I get to voice my opinion.
Why would I trust these rankings if they seem so ridiculous when included in these charts? If Steamer or Zips really thinks Josh Rutledge, Dustin Ackley, and Daniel Murphy are all going to be more valuable than Matt Carpenter for the rest of the season, I have far more of an issue with this than I do that some wackjob would actually rank them this way. Am I expected to believe in the brilliant mathematical analysis of these projections systems when the gap between the rankings and reality is so drastic? I don’t know why it is so hard to incorporate playing time into projections when it is commonly done in almost every other format. While I find the information useful in some aspects, it is far more complicated to use when you know there are major holes in the information being provided. While sabermetricians rag on ESPN, CBS, and Yahoo rankings, the information presented is usually reasonable. What good is a complete analysis when it can’t be trusted due to various reasons? It’s like having a million dollar mansion with a sink hole in the middle – it’s still better than my shack, but watch your step!