All Questions Answered
Hey! I ate some raw garlic last night and am still not functioning well enough to do an actual post. I won’t chat on Turkey day, so consider this the best I can do for now. apologies from my rotten gut. Please try to give all relevant league information and keep it to one or two questions at first.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
What kind of impact do you expect from Wil Myers this year?
I think he’ll have a bad batting average and good power in a half-season of play. It’s an educated guess — he’s had some iffy strikeout rates, and has struggled at new levels in the past — but it’s a guess as to playing time any way. Frenchy is still there and if he rebounds, they’ll need to shop him for a while.
Obviously playing time is biggest issue here. Not sure where you see the low batting average issues though. 2011 was first time in AA and he was 250s, but otherwise he’s been pretty good.
Struggling at new levels has NOT been a problem for him. The only time he struggled was when he was playing injured. If you want to blame it on a new level, go ahead, but you’d be wrong.
Because his strikeout rate has risen with each jump in level. Minor league BABIPs make minor league batting averages pretty un-useful. Chris Davis had great batting averages in the minor leagues, and a K% around 23%.
My fantasy gut tells me that Melky is going to look a lot more like the Atlanta version than either the KC or SF version. Your thoughts? Any way perceptions like mine actually make him a bargain bin type on draft day?
Yes he will drop in drafts next year for sure. I think Toronto could help his power, but the BABIP comes down. He was really out of shape in Atlanta, even being in good (legal) shape would make him a better hitter than he was there. I’d expect something more like Yankee Melky.
Does Robbie Cano have trade value at $50 in a Fangraphs points league? I picked up the last place team in a league and need to blow it up
Yes but not cheap Mike Trout value or anything. Profar might even be tough to pick up. Just look for a moderately priced “young veteran” (think 26-29) on a contending team and you’ll find a taker.
12 team mixed – 7 keeper max and $75 keeper salaries max ($360 budget for 30 roster spots). Keep Goldschmidt at $21 or go with duo of Kris Medlen ($10) and Josh Reddick ($10)? Or, Medlen ($10) and Billy Hamilton ($10)?
$10 is a lot of dough for a guy that’s behind a young major league veteran at his position. Not saying Stubbs can’t be beat, but at $10, you’d want to know before you kept him that he was going to play next season. I think Goldschmidt would have more power than Reddick, but there’s a chance both of their batting averages are around .270 next season, and they both have some speed. Medlen’s not an ace, but at that price he doesn’t have to be. Especially if it’s a five OF setup, I like Reddick and Medlen. Goldie will probably be the best player here, but he’s also twice as expensive.
Plops this is a great question. Sounds like a real, fun format to play in.
I am just asking because my initial reaction was to not pick up Goldie at $20 since he was so far above the average (7 keeper max/$75). Prima facie, you would want to keep players close to that $10 buck level and I imagine most of your league mates would too. Sometimes it is fun being the contrarian though. What if you spent all your cash on 3 really good keepers? You still have a deep pool of players and if you wanted a lottery pick you could pick them up for cheaper than a $10 Billy Hamilton. Maybe you could allocate the cash on 2 really good keepers and a bunch of cheaper keepers. Either way, sounds like a fan exercise for the Fangraphs crowd.
I also know this though: Goldschmidt is the ninth-highest rated player next year according to Bill James. So maybe I’m wrong. I know Bill James is exuberant, but that’s something.
12 team mixed roto – keep 7 in round they were drafted. can keep for max of 5 years with players moving up 5 rounds each year. Keep Wil Myers or Jurickson Profar in 27th round?
Given they both don’t have major league positions right now, I’ll take the shortstop. Look at how bad the shortstop position is right now.
How do you expect the 2013 seasons for the Cardinals young right-handed flamethrowers (Miller, Rosenthal, Kelly) to shake down?
Maybe in the order they were called upon last year? Kelly got the first crack at it, maybe he gets the rotation spot. Miller might have the most starter-ready arsenal, though, and for some reason I think Rosenthal does the pen for a year.
What beer you drinking with your Turkey?
Can’t think about eating right now. But since with family and driving all the way to Santa Rosa and back, I’d think it’s something I can get in a sixer that isn’t too too strong. Maybe like Stone IPA.
12 team mixed roto obp league – keep Goldschmidt in the 8th round or trade for something better?
I like him there. Even if he ‘busts’ and the k-rate gives him a bad BA, he’ll have power and speed.
I am interested in your thoughts on Anthony Rendon’s AFL performance. He has played 22 games for a triple slash of .338/.436/.494 and as the SLG suggests, he has hit zero HR. The number of games played is huge itself, but the power shortage is concerning. Can we chalk this up to small sample size? Or should this be hinting at the fact that he may be a 20 HR a year guy at best?
He’s so all over the place that it’s impossible for me to say. That .494 SLG was actually almost a hundred points above league slugging this year, though, at least last time I checked, so the “AFL correction” was smaller this year. I’d pencil him in for that kind of power and then be happy if I got more. Unfortunately, he’s still playing third base.
Will Trevor Bauer contribute anything in the Major Leagues next year, at least enough to make it worth stashing on my bench at the start of the season?
I still have him ahead of Skaggs, Bradley, Anderson for that final rotation spot (and ahead of Collmenter, unless he has a bad spring training). Wait as long as you can, of course, because of the rumors they want pitching (which make no sense to me).
Thoughts on Johnny Gomes as a lefty platoon guy for Garret Jones in an ottoneu league? He should get at least a platoon job on a big league club, right?
yah but only worth keeping at $1 because he gets the wrong side of the platoon and there are always dudes like that around. So probably not worth keeping.
forgot to mention it’s an obp league – Trading $10 Medlen and $10 Reddick for $3 Rizzo too much if it also allows me to keep Goldschmidt at $21? Rizzo + Goldy would cost just a few bucks more than Medlen + Reddick. Thanks!
Yeah I do that. You’ll get a great 1B out of it either way. and Medlen and Reddick are good, not great.
How much is the most I should spend to retain Trout in Otto pts (I have the coupon due to him being voted off my team)?
He’s a $50+ player, so even if it’s silly, I’d go right up to something like $54 (minus five after).
12 Team H2H, 6×6 (OPS/QS), Keep 8 + 2 rookies. I’m keeping Dylan Bundy but also have a choice between Arenado and Rendon. Both have fairly obvious negatives. Arenado took a big step back and Rendon with the injuries. Thoughts on who to keep?
Arenado. He’s not behind a guy with Zimm’s contract, and his Double-A season wasn’t great, but at least he managed 573 PAs.
In keeper, scherzer or goldschmidt?
The hitter. Remember Scherzer already grabbed his shoulder.
After Jose Reyes, Shields, Cano, J Zimmerman, and Bruce, what three other players should I be keeping in my 12×12 H2H league? Options include: Lawrie, Bundy, Teixeira, Bourne, McCann, and Napoli (I don’t intend to keep more than two pitchers).
Dylan Bundy being a potential exception to that two pitchers rule, obviously.
Also important to note: we have LF, CF, and RF as positions, rather than three OF, so having a plus fantasy contributor who qualifies at CF is a little more important than some other positions.
Bourn and Lawrie I like best. If you have to choose keepers before Napoli signs, go with Bundy. It’s close either way given Napoli’s down year.
Im in a 20-team dynasty league. Two different questions.
1.) Would you consider selling very high on Miggy? I know it sounds crazy, but im not sure his value will ever be higher. Or is he just one of those guys you just never trade
2.) Please rank these SPs in terms of 2013 and then in terms of the next 3-4 years: Kyle Gibson, Robbie Erlin, Casey Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal.
Thanks.
If Miggy got me Trout and a pitcher, and I needed a pitcher, sure. Depth is sometimes under-rated in 20+ teamers. Miggie is approaching post-peak. We’ll see how long he plays third. But specifics matter here, so you’ll need to see what the trades look like.
2) They’re all fantasy #2s most likely. Love Erlin’s curveball, more than Kelly’s. Rosenthal has heat and a curve, and Gibson was showing heat/slider in the AFL. Slider has the biggest platoon split, and Gibson’s entire body of work is near the bottom of the list. Rosenthal gets a little ding because where was all of this before last year? Erlin got hurt but got excellent numbers when he was in, and though the fences will make a difference, they won’t stop the sea air from rolling in. I’ll take Kelly, Erlin, Rosenthal, Gibson next year, and over the course of the next three-to-four years, Rosenthal moves up and Kelly moves down.
Please choose two pitcher:McCarthy,Gee or Lewis?
Lewis is the easy one, just because he’s been successful where he’ll be next year. I wish Gee had a better fastball or McCarthy was under contract next year. McCarthy I guess. Wish he ends up in the NL.
No real question – I went on a Sonoma beer tasting tour this weekend, and have a new found respect for Lagunitas – what they lack in upside they make up for in depth (their whiskey aged stout – wow). No hyperbole needed for Russian River – and yes, Pliny tastes just as good going down as it does coming up!
thumbs up except for the last part
I’m starting a league for next year with a group of six law students. The league will be competetive- people will be paying attention. However, not all participants are Fangraphs readers/SABR-inclined. Does anyone have recommendations for a fun league/format? Are any of the free leagues better than others? All suggestions welcome.
I like ottoneu, but it’s not really a first-timers sort of thing. Yahoo’s pretty much the best accepted platform, given how many different scoring options they have, the price (free), and lack of bugs. Usability. EsPN has some dynasty options that are better. Also, you better make your lineups real real deep, or add more players. Six will mean you’re all playing with stars. Ten with deep lineups should make it better.
List me 3 really good stouts.
You would think of drafting Melky if he fell to the _ round?
Obsidian’s stout is great. Rogue’s chocolate stout. Alesmith Speedway stout is my favorite, but I’m going to write up coffee stouts this week — they actually make a decaf one and I think I need that.
I like Melky for a bottom-line pencil of about .280 10/10, so that’s final five-to-ten rounds in mixed leagues. To be my util.
There really is no reason to expect Melky to produce at Yankee levels, While it is possible it is unlikely. I mean during his age 26-27 seasons (1207pa) he slashed .322/.360/489….This upcoming season at the age of 28 and moving to a hitter friendly stadium I don’t think he should be expected to regress to what he was 3 years ago…unless you believe ped’s are responsible for what he did the last few years. It’s more likely he has simply improved as a hitter. I mean really….how many guys are juicing in mlb who stink? Probably tons. We all know about his babip-fueled avg…..sure he may not hit .345 next year but is really going to ops anywhere near the .716 he managed while he was a yankee? This really is a great signing for the jays,
I love the signing because he doesn’t even need to put up two wins to make it worthwhile. He never did that before the last two years. He’s in shape now, and wasn’t in Atlanta, but if you look at his power, it hasn’t grown in leaps and bounds. I’d figure him for about league-average power, a few stolen bases, and then we’re arguing about his batting average, which is the most ridiculous stat in baseball to predict. Love it in real life, don’t love him in fantasy.
On the minor league side of a keeper league, I’ve got Billy Hamilton, Jorge Soler, Gregory Polanco, Gary Brown, and Robert Stephenson. Need to pick one to throw back….should it be Brown or Stephenson? (not very worried about batting pitching balance)
Harpago17, thanks for the question. You have to weigh your teams needs and your league rules. Are pitchers devalued by daily moves and large rosters? Alternatively, are they extremely important because you only start 3 a week?
With that said, I’m a BIG proponent of evaluating *fantasy* prospects through the context of their proximity to the majors. While Stephenson is arguably the furthest away, he likely has has an extremely high ceiling. On the other side of things, Gary Brown is a very low ceiling prospect. I actually like his hitting ability more than most but you’re basically getting a two category CF (SB/R). And remember that Billy Hamilton has been moved in CF and could see time atop the Reds lineup at some point this year. While he’s the same category guy as Brown (SB/R), he could be elite in those two.
I’d drop Brown.
Of all the free agents available, who do you think will post the highest OPS+ in 2013? If the answer is Hamilton for you, who’s #2?
Napoli re-ups with Rangers and beats out Swisher with a resurgent year.
NL-only 2-catcher roto auction keeper league: Would you rather have a high-cost Starlin Castro plus Billy Hamilton at the keeper minimum or a high-cost Buster Posey?
Buster. Two catchers. One League. One less team.
12 team H2H 6×6 with standard categories plus obp and holds. Keep 4 players, no keeper restrictions, just straight up keep 4. Which 4 do you keep? Here is my list of options:
Braun, Mccutcheon, Holliday, Bautista, Choo, Headley, Kipnis, C Santana, Tulo, Sale, Darvish.
Braun, McCutch locks. Holliday is a “not” lock for me, as his wheels are declining and he’s definitively post-peak. Same for Choo. I can’t keep a pitcher in a keep-four. so that leaves Bautista, Headley, Kipnis and Tulo for two spots. man, even after that year, I’m taking Tulo. I kinda feel like you can get Kipnis back for cheaper than he should be, so now it’s Headley v Bautista, and they both just had real different years. You have two OFs, but Bautista should be better than Headley if you believe in going back further than a year when doing projections.
10-team deep-bench keeper league. Points (think wOBA) and $290 salary with really high inflation due to a transition from dynasty format.
I need a 2B to round-out my infield. Pay $9 for Aaron Hill, $22 for Robinson Cano, or buy a replacement level guy for a couple bucks on draft day? Thanks.
Cano Cano Cano Cano
A large group of people are taking over every team in the MLB, signing FA, making trades, and basically just doing a mock off season then simulating the results. I’m in control of the Nationals. What do you think about these two trades:
Pujols + Cash + Bourjos for Harper + Werth
Zimmerman for Alex Gordon
Sign Zack Greinke
Sign BJ Upton
Sign McCarthy
OF would be Gordon – Upton – Morse while 1B would be Pujols and rotation would be Greinke/Strasburg/Gonzalez/McCarthy/Detwiler
Yay?
(The Marlins owner messaged me this:
Jayson Werth is not a nice contract. I am willing to take on his contract.
My proposal: You receive: Ricky Nolasco and the rights to Jeff Mathis, a prospect I got in the Blue Jays trade. I receive: Bryce Harper, Michael Morse, and Jayson Werth.
I am one of the few teams that can afford to take on Werth and you also get a reliable starting pitcher. I need more players on my team. I think it’s a good trade for both of us.”
Should I just quit the league now or what?)
sounds like something that everyone thinks is really cool at first, but then like 2-3 weeks into it, no one is even paying attention anymore because they realize there is no incentive to care.
who’s your third baseman? Rendon?
Also, gah on the marlins offer.
He meant trading Zimmermann (SP).
Yes Jordan Z.
I think Harper will have a big year next year so I dunno about that bit. Like all of the rest of it though.
finished in last place this year after a some of my more expensive guys (teixeira, halladay, etc) fell flat on their faces and turned to stockpiling long term value–prospects and players coming off injuries that could be had at lower auction values.
what do you think about michael pineda? the fact that its a shoulder problem scares me, yet his talent is undeniable. what kind of numbers do you think he’ll put up next year? iver how many innings? have you heard anything about his health that might encourage/discourage me from targeting him at the next auction draft?
As a righty with an arsenal that lefties will enjoy, pitching at home in a park that lefties love, I think his Mariner numbers are impossible. But a mid-to-high threes ERA? With almost a K per inning? That’s worth keeping. Yes, shoulders suck, but he’s among the younger shoulder guys.
Good chance he may not pitch in 2013: http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2012-11-03/michael-pineda-injury-update-yankees-shoulder-surgery-2013-rotation
don’t pay more than a $1 and or last round pick for a DL stash
12 teams, 5×5, 10 keepers. No draft pick or dollar cost to keep someone, and we can keep players forever. LF/CF/RF instead of OF, 2 Util spots.
Gonna try to make some offseason trades, but if I can’t….who’s the odd man out from these 11? — Pujols, Pedroia, Andrus, Wright, Braun, Kemp, J. Upton, Ellsbury, Kershaw, Hamels, Wainwright.
that’s a helluva group. Given you have CF, and the fact that I think Upton could be a true talent .280/20+/20 guy, I guess it’s Upton. I’d love it to be one of your pitchers, but they are all good and Waino’s arm should be good for another year even if he’s in trouble again long-term.
Thanks.
I hadn’t even considered letting Justin go, the idea of having him hold down my RF spot for another decade or so is very enticing. I was bouncing between Waino and Andrus, and probably leaning Waino, but it seems I’ve got something else to think about now.
for the record i think eno’s talking crazy and you have it correct with the andrus-waino thing. actually i think it’s wainwright easily. there’s always pitchers
but really with this group at your disposal you should be able to find some kind of trade
well waino’s an answer, and I usually skew towards the hitter over a pitcher, you can see that in this thread alone. I just usually have three pitchers by round ten, because I do the ‘multiple late ones/ early twos’ approach.
1-team league?
Yeah, I didn’t build that roster with a ton of trades over the past 5-6 years…I’m just in a league all by myself. Thanks for your insightful input.
Does Profar start the season in Texas? If so do you see him as a possible top-10 (5?) SS going into the season, or is that merely his upside for this season?
If things are as they are now, I doubt they move Kinsler to the OF right now and make Profar a second baseman. It just seems like too much to put on Profar. If he starts with the team as it’s constructed now, he’s the backup at every infield spot, and top-10 or top-5 is only upside. If he had a job now, I’d put him around 5-7 most likely. Betting on rookies in one-year leagues doesn’t always work.
Eno, I know you have a massive man crush on Kipnis. How do I do here? I trade my Kinsler with a franchise tag for Kipnis with full eligibility and my 5th for his third. There will be 80 players less keepers.
I’m assuming that means Kinsler can only be kept for another year or two? I love it.
Yes, I have to keep him or dump him. How about some reasons on why you are so high on Kipnis? I scouted him at ASU and liked what I saw, but didnt see All-Star potential off the one time I saw him.
I just believe in his power and he already showed good speed. If he hits 4 more homers than his Bill James projection, he’s going to give Kinsler a fight for his money, and that’s before you factor in Kinsler’s age and the draft pick upgrade.
12-team, mixed league, fangraphs points system, no-limits on keepers but $400 cap. Have been offered Matt Moore ($25) for Wainwright ($25) straight-up. I like Moore, but see him as not much better than Jarrod Parker (who I have at $5) with possibly more upside. Wainwright is right on the line for keep/non-keep for me. So I don’t like the trade. Can you convince me I’m wrong?
I love love Moore’s stuff, but to take him over an established guy like Waino… at same price? I’ll keep Wainwright.
Can’t get a top 1B, so I’m trying to gauge value from group of Hart, Morse, Ad.Gonzalez, LaRoche, Trumbo, and Freeman. League uses OBP instead of average. Rank ’em?
I’ll take Freeman first, with Hart and Morse coming second (both tall guys with potential to K-bust, don’t have great BB% but lots of power, with Morse coming third because of uneven power history). Trumbo next, although Gonzo might make sense as a cheaper play with equal value due to good OBP.
what do you expect out of andrew cashner next year? will he go the entire year in the rotation? is top 40 reasonable?
No way he can make it through the full year. His rate stats might make him useful, but I’ll target him as a top 75 guy, a final guy for my mixed league staffs, who might end up surprising. But given that injury history…
Eno, I am in a league that carries 10 minor leaguers. I graduated Profar and Middlebrooks recently and made a few blunders along the way. I dropped Castellanos, Parker and Goodwin.
Here is my current roster: Taillon, Rosario, Gregory Polanco, Alen Hansen, d’Arnaud, Gary Sanchez, Kyle Gibson, Davidson, Tyler Austin, and someone else I cant remember.
We cant add anyone from the past draft until the next phase of the draft.
My question is who do you see as the next Yelich, Tevares, Liriano, Arenado? I also would like your opinion on my roster and if you see anything I can drop to make an improvement.
Is Heathcott improving? When I scouted him at Area Code Games he was really solid and garnering Hamilton comparisons. I need some help with my minors roster!
One manager has Tevaras, Liriano, Machado, Arenado, Bundy, and Sano!
You’ve got a few questions here that are hard to answer. Who do we predict to be the next, “Yelich, Taveras, Liriano, Arenado”? What do you mean by that? All of these guys came from very different pedigrees.
As for your roster, it’s strong. But I say that not knowing who is available to be picked up. I am not a fan of Davidson or Gibson and would say those two would be the first to go if you see someone you like.
I guess the reason why I dubbed those guys is because they all caught serious helium in the prospects ranks. My other player is Carlos Martinez. I was asking if you had some recommendations as whom to try and target or add under the radar like players who may not be all that highly touted as of yet. Hence the reason of the afforementioned.
Jay, I just didn’t know what you meant, that’s all. Again, it’s hard to say who to target without knowing who is available. I would never suggest targeting prospects in a trade though. That’s a receipt for disaster.
12-team 5×5 (OBP instead of BA), 2 C and 5 OF mixed league, $260 cap. We keep 10 per year, and we have contracts (5-year max). Need help with my keeper decisions. Right now, I plan on keeping:
C/1B – Posey ($5, 3rd year of 5-year contract)
C/1B – C. Santana ($5, 3rd year of 5-year contract)
2B – A. Hill ($2, no contract)
3B – Machado ($1, no contract)
OF – Braun ($45, last year of 3-year contract)
P -Bumgarner ($5 – 3rd year of 5-year contract)
P – Medlen ($1, no contract)
I have 3 keeper spots open, and these guys to choose from to round them out:
3B – Freese ($3)
2B/3B – Seager ($1)
OF – Holliday ($34)
P – Hamels ($27)
P – J. Parker ($1)
P – Chapman ($13)
At this point, I’m leaning Freese, Seager, and Parker, based on value and upside alone. I’m not a fan of keeping Closers (which is where I think Chapman stays next year), and the other big names don’t offer a lot of value. Thoughts?
Secondly, I was offered Rosario ($1) and Prado ($6) for C. Santana. Since I already have Posey, it does make some sense, even in a 2 C league. And Prado will be 2B/SS/3B/OF eligible in our league. Even with that, I’m leaning toward declining it. Nuts?
Rosario trade is okay from value standpoint, but Prado in OF is less valuable and you don’t need him on the infield. Holliday is out for sure for me. so cut two more? I guess Hamels is too close to his price, so him. You’re really keeping Machado hoping that he ends up at short again, so keeping a three-B makes sense. I like Seager over Freese (as a pre-12 Headley kind of guy), so it’s Freese (oft injured, high-BABIP batting average, league average kind of power) versus the best closer, pretty much at closer price. I guess it’s Freese, but there’s an argument for Chap over Freese based on your roster construction. You don’t NEED three third basemen.
Thanks for the response. Good points regarding the 3B conundrum. I’ll have Machado occupying one of those spots, since he won’t be SS eligible to start 2013. So, it looks like Chapman may be the way to go. If I made the Prado/Rosaro-for-Santana trade, I could plug Prado in at SS. In which case, the trade makes a lot of sense.
Have you ever played Scoresheet Baseball?
For the first time this year, came in second-to-last in King Kaufman’s AL Keeper. But I have some young guys at key positions, and could do better next year. I hate hate hate the interface, but the idea is fun.
Why don’t you like us enough to chat on Thursday. Gosh, Eno.
Well *I* like you enough to do that, it’s just my family wouldn’t be a big fan of it.
Ottoneu points league:
I’m looking for a 1B/Util and am targeting billy butler ($22) or goldschmidt ($8). Should I trade Jered weaver ($24) straight up for either or is this an overpay for one side?
with the surplus value in the Goldschmidt contract, that one makes more sense. He also plays in the field more often. I’d ask for a sleeper/$1 type pitcher back, still. Weaver in ottoneu points league still has surplus value beyond his price.
AL-only Scoresheet league…dynasty w/ 13-keepers
I was offered Miguel Cabrera in exchange for Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, a crossover slot, and a r30.
Seems high to me, but I am over the crossover limit of 2 (I also have Edwin Jackson and Matt Garza), and I’m not liking the career progression of Gonzo and H-Ram. But I’m not crazy about sticking Cabrera at third, and he has no 1st base eligibility.
Pull the trigger, or pass?
I like it but I’d like to know who plays short for you after.
I was using H-Ram at third. JJ Hardy is my shortstop.
…and I’ve got no replacement at first…yet…
Dynasty points league — assume you have the guy as long as you like. What’s the theoretical dollar value difference between Jurickson Profar and Oscar Taveras?
Again, that’s a very difficult question to answer without knowing your point system. Theoretically you first need to account for the position difference. How does the average SS and COF perform in your league? That should help you find the positional value to add to Profar’s points total. Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s talk about those two.
There isn’t a prospect with a wider array of probabilities than Taveras and his fantasy upside is far greater than Profar’s fantasy upside. When I watch Taveras I immediately think controlled aggression. I could see Taveras hitting 300-330/20-25/15. The issue is the flame out risk. His swing is so violent and his plate discipline is lacking. I HATE betting on those guys but I’ve been wrong on them quite a bit. I was low on Sandoval for the same reason (tho, add his body to that equation too).
Then you’ve got a guy like Profar… he’s a sure thing (as close to one as there is in the minors today). The big question mark is where he winds up defensively. It SOUNDS like second base which totally changes the equation above. Is that position change something you want to risk? The level of offense required is so much higher. I see him going 300/15-20 (Arlington bump)/20 with a GREAT OBP.
All in all, I can’t give you a dollar difference. What I can tell you is – without knowing your team – I’d take Taveras’s upside over Profar’s certainty. In the end, it’s fantasy baseball and only offensive superstars matter. Profar’s defense doesn’t help you.
I’m in a 12 team, 7×7 H2H league.
Offensive cats = R, 3B, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, SLG
Pitching cats = K, W, SV, HD, ERA, OBA, K/BB
We keep 8. My sure-fire locks are Posey, Votto, Pedroia, Hanley, and CarGo.
But that only leaves 3 spots left for these guys : Butler, Choo, Weaver, Cliff Lee, Latos, and Aroldis.
Which of those 3 guys make the cut? I’m leaning toward Butler/Weaver/Lee…
Choo’s out easily. I guess Aroldis is a closer, and I’m usually looking for my first closer around round nine, so he’s out, as good as he is. Butler has to be in. Latos is younger than Lee, but Lee’s better and the Phils could re-stock. Weaver is an easy in.
Mine is a 12-team, 10-keeper league. Offensive categories are R, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, SB, BB, K, AVG, OBP, SLG. Pitching categories are IP, W, L, CG, SV, HRA, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB, K/9, and QS.
I am definitely keeping the following guys: Butler, Wright, Hanley, Adam Jones, Verlander, Price, and Kimbrel. I’m also 99% sure that I’m keeping Medlen.
My options for the following two spots: Montero or Santana (I’m leaning Santana), Choo, and Matt Harvey.
I also have Freeman, Brett Anderson, Jaime Garcia, EJax, and Papelbon, but I don’t think they’re really keepers.
Any advice you have is much appreciated.
If you have Butler, freeman’s not a keeper. Ejax, Garcia, Paps are easy drops.
Brett Anderson makes me pause. Him vs Harvey… Harvey should have more Ks, but if he turns out to be as good as Anderson overall, you’ll be lucky.
I like Montero, and the fences could help him, and I love that he gets extra PAs, but unsure how long he gets enough catcher time to be a catcher. Santana is safer bet, and with just a tiny bit of BABIP luck, could have a monster season.
But Harvey vs Anderson is the hot prospect, bird in hand vs bush sort of thing that you’ll probably just need to figure out on your own.
Sorry, I meant Miguel Montero…am I crazy for considering Santana over him. Sorry for the confusion. And thanks again.
Nah I take Santana over either Montero.
Hey Eno,
Hope you start feeling better. Do you expect any regression from Shields in 2013? And would you rather keep him or Darvish?
Thanks, it’s crazy up in this house right now. As good as Yu is, Shields is just that much safer because of the two fewer walks he gives up. It’s not like his 8.9 K/9 is so terrible, just not league-leading. And I do think Yu wll have a better BB% next year. But that’s a gut. The numbers … well wow, look at Bill James projecting Yu to be better. And he’s younger! I think I’ve talked myself into Yu, just not sure about YOU.
Who do you think will have more value in years 2013-2015 from a 5 x 5 perspective, Billy Butler or Pablo Sandoval? Butler qualifies at 1B next year.
Pablo. He’s a third-baseman and I think Butler’s a true talent 25 HR guy most years, and not necessarily a first baseman every year.
In a dynsasty league with +10 for a W, -5 for a L, -2 for ER, -1 for H, HBP or W and +1 for every out and K. We also have a 10 player minor laegue roster. Would you trade Skaggs for either the new Jay, Johnson or for Hellickson?
Thanks
I would trade Skaggs, yes. I’d probably take Hellboy, considering he has upside remaining, is younger than Johnson, and less injury-prone.
Hey Eno, was wondering if you could help me round out my keeper list by giving me some priority rankings.
Jhoulys Chacin
Michael Pineda
Juan Nicassio
Ernesto Frieri
Jake McGee
Sergio Romo
Tim Collins
Jhonny Peralta
I normally don’t keep RP’s, but I’m really impressed with the crop I ended up with this year, especially given that this is a HLD’s league. Keeping Frieri and McGee would also be my first attempt to play for SV’s in this league, however, SV’s seem to be hoarded by a few select teams and completely punted by most others.
My rotation keepers right now are Verlander, Gio Gonzalez, Cueto, Lester and Masterson, so I actually look pretty good there.
I have Troy Tulowitzki at SS, and I may try to trade for a 2B/SS type. Zobrist is an unlikely target though as the team I traded him to probably wont trade him back to me.
As always Eno, your advice is always appreciated!
I’ll take Pineda’s log-term upside over any of those pitchers, even with your rotation.
Then I like Frieri’s chance of settling in in as a closer.
The rest is a crap shoot. McGee? Sure. Romo? Okay. Nicasio is still in that group though, so if you’re going to keep two relievers and two starters, it’s Nicasio second for me. Peralta? I guess, but he seems so fungible.
How do you expect the Oakland and Baltimore rotations to start, and more importantly, end next year? Both have a ton of young talent, so who gets slotted, who goes to the bullpen, and who stays in the minors?
I don’t think Miguel Gonzalez is going to hold off any youngsters for a while, so he’s the guy to go for Bundy, maybe at the beginning of the season, maybe after the magical super two date. Johnson might last longer.. who’s he battling? Arrietta? Eh, he might last all year.
Oakland: Anderson, Parker, Milone, Griffin seem locks all year. I’m not sold on Straily, and he and Werner both have options. I guess Straily’s the first one up when Colon pops.
This is a pretty broad question, but in a dynasty league with no restrictions on keepers, how many players out of a 22-man team would you recommend keeping? Obviously it depends on who you have, but I’m having a hard time determining a cut-off point so that I keep enough to field a good team, but also am able to pick up good prospect-types in the draft. For example, what’s your strategy regarding relievers (my league has saves and holds as categories)? Should I keep guys like Kenley Jansen, Matt Thornton, Addison Reed, Jonny Venters, etc.?
Thanks, Eno.
I love those relievers. I’d drop your bench at least. Maybe keep only a holds guy or two, there are always new holds guy every day. I’ll think you’ll want 3-5 picks at least. Maybe more but I doubt you have much more than a three-man bench.
JD, who produces more value in the Majors over the next 5 years, Matt Barnes, Zach Lee, or Michael Wacha?
Out of hand I’ll say I believe Wacha is the first to reach the bigs. So it’s EASY to say he will as he’ll have the head start. With the said, me Barnes, Wacha and Lee in that order over the next 5 years.
I’m in a 11-team, A.L. only,auction roto league. 15 keepers+ 9-farm. 260$ cap. I have Pujols at 49$ which eats up 19% of salary but need power. Players such as Longoria, Bautista, Cano, will be in the pot, plus others who may be unprotected because of $$$. My question is should I throw back Pujols and hope to get him or another guy at less $$ ? Or just ride out Alberts salary. Pitching is in pretty good shape, may need one good starter who will fetch 20$. Will need to fill 8- slots. Will sit at 162$ with Albert. I’ll be at 140$ without Albert, with Jeter added and two other contracts (Montero and Moustakas) extended an extra year. All flexibility disappears keeping Albert.
I’d drop Pujols, honestly. That’s a ton of money. He’s still a first baseman, and post-peak.
In an AL-only $50 salary cap, auction league, I currently have 5 pitching keepers… Verlander at $8.50, Darvish at $5.50, Shields at $2.75, and Moore at $1.00.
My general strat is to spend big bucks on hitting, not pitching… should I trade any of these guys, or are they all just too good to give up? I was looking at dealing Darvish but then Bill James.
I like Shields, but with his price, age and 2012 stats, he could get you a nice return. I’d shop him.
Would you trade Wil Myers and Derek Norris for C. Santana in a 14 team keeper league?
Yes actually, but some would be pissed to hear it. Myers might be a catcher for a year and might make you angry that year, but Santana is a real-life catcher and much better than Norris.
5×5 mixed, start 5 OF, 10 pitchers (generally 7-8 SPs), 1C. Can keep 4 for next season.
Options:
Verlander, Felix, Hamels, Strasberg, Posey, Holliday.
Which 4 do I keep?
Holliday is a lock to drop. I wish you had some non-pitchers to keep other than Posey. Verlander, Felix, Stras.
Eno,
I’ve been a longtime reader and occasional commenter on your fantasy chats. Recently I’ve started getting more into “actual” beer, (I’m a college student so most of my intake had been keystone/coors). I’m from Northern California so Sierra Nevada, Lost Coast, and Deschutes were all fairly prevalent growing up.
I’ve had Sierra Nevada’s Pale Ale, IPA, and miscellaneous pilsners. I randomly found Green Flash West Coast IPA today when I was out for lunch and ordered it based on your talks about it, and found it to be surprisingly different and overwhelming from anything I’d tried before. Basically I’m wondering how you got into beer, and if you have any suggestions for easing into more complicated and interesting beers without diving headfirst into beer I find a struggle to drink.
Thanks!
Everyone’s got their own taste, but if you maybe remember your first beer, you probably didn’t like it either. So there’s a balance between trying new things and enjoying what you like. Maybe try another couple more hoppy IPAs, and if it doesn’t work out, set out on another tangent. Belgians represent another type of angle, a little sweet for me, but if you start out with Saisons, you might like those, then there are dubbels and trippels. Or you could go dark — Stouts, then Porters, then barleywines, in a general progression. You can go from Pils into imperial Pils, maybe unfiltered Pils, but not much further. It’s a smorgasbord. Try em all. Worst case you arch an eyebrow and struggle through a beer.
Here’s a suggestion, since your palette is oreads struggling with beer, switch to bourbon. After about 12 years of craft brew snobbery, I found myself craving traditional beers. Then, I used Leinies or Miller to wash down bourbon. The benefits are that it’s cheaper for home consumption. You consume fewer calories with zero carbonation. And if purchased at a bar, you’re putting more money into your local economy.
Ok, one more question. I can’t remember if I’ve asked you this on a chat before but I’ll ask again. I’m in a 14-team 5-keeper head-to-head league that includes BB as a hitting category. I’ve already got Bautista, Price, and Cliff Lee locked in as keepers. My remaining options for the last two spots are Alex Gordon, Austin Jackson, Mike Napoli, Anthony Rizzo, and Paul Goldschmidt (and Roy Halladay, but I already know how you feel about keeping 3 pitchers). What would you do?
In dynasty,please rank Ackley,Simmons and Segura.Count H,BB,SO,2B,3B.
Lizzo or Scherzer?Still hitter?
Hi Eno, hope you felt well enough to enjoy Thanksgiving dinner. Dynasty league keeper smackdowns: Rd 1 Cole vs Walker, then Rd 1 winner vs. Fernandez; Rd 1 Myers vs. Taveras, then Rd 1 winner vs. Castellanos; Rd 1 Bogaerts vs. Baez, then Rd 1 winner vs. Correa