All Questions Answered Thread: March 13, 2014
Since tomorrow marks the beginning of a busy drafting weekend, many of you readers will have some questions you’d like answered. In an effort to help, I am giving you a chance to get your questions answered today.
All reasonable questions posted in the comments by 8:00 PM EDT will be answered. What makes a question reasonable? Glad you asked.
A reasonable question would look something like:
• “Who would you rather have, Matt Holliday or Shin-Soo Choo?”
• “Rank these five players: Martin Prado, Kyle Seager, Aaron Hill, Chase Headley, and Jedd Gyorko ”
• “What is your projection for Mark Trumbo?”
An unreasonable question would be:
• “Who would you rather have, Albert Pujols or Adam Moore?”
• “I have these 20 players, and I’d like you to rank them.”
Of course there’s a gray area, but I’m a decent human being and will probably answer your question. Just please be gentle and don’t make the questions too time consuming or asking questions with 30 different parts.
You can ask about any relevant fantasy topic, from draft day etiquette to anything else on your mind, it will likely be answered. Or, you can ask random questions and I may answer those, too, if I’ve had enough to drink.
So, let’s get to it! Any questions?
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
I believe for your player values you devalue SB, esp vs HRs? This has changed over time but now in most leagues, I notice that HRs far outweigh SBs, making the latter more valuable to me? Given the way the league has changed now, aren’t SBs more valuable?
I don’t value or devalue anything. If SBs are becoming more scarce, than the values will reflect that.
For example, Jose Altuve gets a much higher rating this year than I would be comfortable with, mostly because of the SB value he provides.
I thought in your recent calcs you had a HR more valuable than a SB yet in most leagues, SB are more scarce. Is that incorrect?
Zimm had a really interesting point last night that if you use SGP instead of RL you see that something like 50% of SBs go undrafted but more than 3/4 of homers get drafted. I thought that was interesting, but it would suggest that SBs are even more scarce while being valued less at the same time…
SGP makes me sad.
Dybasty league. $260 cap, 14 teams, some inflation but not silly. I have won Mat Latos for $14 and Corey Kluber for $3. The way the league works is you choose a contract length at the auction price for between 1 and 5 years, and then you can’t cut them, so the only way out of a bad contract is to trade it. How many years should I give to Latos and Kluber?
I had a mis-impression of Latos that he is injury prone. I’m not sure where that came from, as he has four straight years of 184+ IP, increasing every year with the last two years being 200+ IP seasons. That being the case, and since he is only 26 this year, I think he is worth a 5 year contract at that price. He’s no scrub either, posting solid strikeouts and slightly better than a 1:3 BB:K ratio.
Kluber: on the one hand, he looks like another master of control, and the price is very attractive. He just doesn’t quite have the track record yet. At $3 a year, the investment is tiny but the potential payoff is quite excellent, so I would sign Kluber to a 5 year contract as well.
At those prices, I would give both Latos and Kluber a 3 year deal. If Kluber were younger I’d go the full 5, and Latos is worth locking up for a few years.
Unless it was someone like Jose Fernandez or Danny Salazar, I wouldn’t want to go a full 5 years for a SP. Too much risk involved.
cool initiative, thanks! starting at pick 97 in a 5×5 roto draft, I am seeking a 1B then SS. Would you rather take Rizzo (Yahoo! rankings suggest he will be available) plus B. Miller at the end of round 10, or E. Cabrera followed by J. Abreu?
if u currently have more speed than power, then rizzo side. if u are lacking in speed, everth side
I agree with Ben that if speed is a real need, then you probably have to go with the Everth side. I’m not an Everth fan (his track record, his low batting average, his injury history). He’ll hurt you in other categories as much as he will help you in SB. He’s not worth the draft position in my opinion. I’d go with the Rizzo/Miller side. Rizzo and Abreu are project for similar power numbers, but Abreu might hit for a higher average (can we be sure?). Miller looks like a good value with a combo of speed and power: well balanced and an excellent fallback SS for a 5×5 league. Maybe you can grab guys like Villar or Rajai Davis later if you feel like you need to catch up in SB.
Depends on your needs, but probably Cabrera/Abreu. More upside in the counting stats.
Aside from those coming off injury, name the five players that will have the largest increase in home run production over last year.
Pujols had nearly 400 AB last year, but was injured pretty much all year and shut down in August, so he doesn’t count. I’m going to exclude cup-of-coffee rookie/prospect types as well. In no particular order:
Billy Butler
Christian Yelich
Avisail Garcia
David Freese
Nolan Arenado
jose reyes
Damn that’s tough;
Avisail Garcia, Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder, Jacoby Ellsbury, and….how about Josh Reddick
McCann?
He was up for my last spot there with Reddick.
I like Reddick to hit more bombs, but considering he acknowledges it was a mistake playing through injuries last year, he probably shouldn’t count.
Couple of ranks:
Best Keeper value in a new keeper league (keep for up to two more years):
K Davis
A Garcia
Brantley
Eaton
K Calhoun
Most likely to produce value in 2014:
Springer
Buxton
G Polanco
M Franco
J Baez
A Russell
Singleton
Thanks, Zach!
If you only get them two years I’d take the guys who are going to help right away. Davis and Calhoun for me, despite being older. Eaton over Calhoun is defensible. Garcia has great long term upside, but will he hit it so soon?
Second list, Polanco. Russell is a Lowrie injury away too.
I’m in a league where we are able to horde prospects in our minor league systems. Could you rank these prospects based on fantasy value:
Kris Bryant
Jonathan Gray
Maikel Franco
Albert Almora
Eddie Butler
Carlos Rodon
bryant
franco
gray
butler
almora
rodon
Based on a present value weighing…
Bryant, Gray, Franco, Butler, Almora, Rodon
Please rank for MLB value next 4 years….Dahl,Betts, Almora, Mondesi Jr.
Betts, Almora, and I don’t care about the other two.
How is Mookie going to get to the majors? Almora seems to have a much clearer path.
Here are 5 relief pitchers I am targeting in a deep league. Black, Allen, Storen, Capps, Kintzler. Add 5 more to consider please.
Melancon, Bastardo, Santos, Benoit, Brothers.
Delabar, Hoover, Strop (I love him), Funky Cold Medina, Crain
Would you keep a 2nd tier Closer for $1 of 260 budget (4 keepers total)?
Absolutely. This might protect you from bidding wars and overpriced RP acquisitions in the auction.
If he provides the best value proposition compared to other options, sure.
Which pitcher would you value more long term in a 5×5 league, Tyson Ross or Ivan Nova?
nova
Nova and it’s not even close.
12 team H2H pts League, auction draft with $260 budget. Calculating a points over replacement level using projections, looks like SS is the one position you can acquire at a lower cost, ie Dozier for $3 vs. Spending $28 on Hanley. Good approach or is another position deeper?
In what league is Dozier SS eligible?
I think you nailed it with SS, though. I’m happy with a ton of guys at that position.
Better season this year….Fransico Liriano or Andrew Cashner?
I’ll say Liriano.
Probably only going to keep for this year: 11th round David Ortiz or 3rd round Pedroia
Papi if he’s 1B eligible (Yahoo)
Ryan Braun or Bryce Harper? What’s the earliest a reasonable person could draft either of them?
I don’t think it is unreasonable to draft either of them between the middle of the first round and the end of the first round, passing over guys like Chris Davis and Troy Tulowitzki, even Adam Jones. Both are great options but the two players might be on different trajectories: I would take the riser in Harper.
Late first for both, I suppose.
How many starts do you project Kevin Gausman for this year?
20ish. I don’t think he starts the year in the bigs.
$270 budget for 33 players. Is $44 for Cargo too expensive?
Yes.
8×8 H2H League with power cats added (OPS, TB, K/9…). If top 4 go as projected, who would you take #5?
I’m hesitant on Cargo because of injury in H2H. Everyone from 5-16 has big question marks, though.
Who are the top 4?
My five would be Trout, Cabrera, Goldschmidt, Kershaw, and Cano.
Keeper is Miguel Cabrera. Traditional 5 categories + OPS. Who do you take with your first pick — Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, or Joey Votto?
Votto. Secure the high OBP/OPS first baseman. Shortstop can be back-filled later with healthier options like Segura or Miller.
Votto.
Is it crazy to draft Kimbrel in the 6th round of a 12 team mixed league? I just want to draft an elite closer and then forget about it, and with his Ks I think he’s worth a 6th or even 5th round pick.
He’s worth a 3rd round pick.
Trout or Cabrera in Head to Head Points League (2 matchups per week)
I have no idea of your points system, so I have no clue, but I have Trout as my #1 player this year.
Choose 2: Darvish, Sale, Desmond, J. Bruce
Choose 2: AGon, Holliday, Bogaerts, M. Carpenter
10-team, H2H, Scoring is non-traditional (R, HR, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG / QS, BB, K9, SV, ERA, WHIP)
Your league scoring is the worst. Leave this league immediately.
Thanks for your reply.
Agreed, at least he could have answered your question AND dealt on a heapin’ helpin’ of snark. What an awful response.
The problem is that it’s nearly impossible for me to say anything of value with such a strange scoring system.
Shot in the dark:
Sale and Bruce
Holliday and Carpenter
Since Zach was unhelpful and I like your scoring system, I’ll take Darvish and Sale and AGon and Holliday
Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts
Which one has better upside?
how do you project each for ROS?
For this season, Boegaerts has the higher upside since Correa might not make an appearance this season, at least not until summer/September.
Correa won’t play in the majors in 2014.
Bogaerts.
What is the percentage of chance that the Sox sign Stephen Drew and start Bogaerts in AAA?
In a 12 team mixed keep-forever dynasty league in which depth isn’t an issue, did I overpay for Mike Trout in giving Bruce/Bogaerts/Soler/a pick? It’s rare to get a chance at top talent for a package at this point in a season, so I pounced, but that felt high.
I don’t think that is a high price to pay for the top fantasy baseball player, who should remain in that position perennially. Bruce is good but has his warts, Bogaerts might be a first rounder some day but when and can we be sure? Soler is unproven. I think this is a good trade for you. It makes your team better now, and you cannot win a future year’s championship this year.
Depends on where the pick is, but the player package seems like you got decent value.
In head-to-head leagues, one would have to assume that Danny Salazar has a lower value simply based on the fact that he likely won’t be pitching for your fantasy team in the playoffs (limited innings). How do you like to factor this in when creating auction dollar projections in a 20-team league in which it’s difficult just to make it into the playoffs? Thanks!
Less innings means less chance to add value. Simple as that, no need to make it a different calculation.
Not that simple. This is a H2H league, not a Roto. If you can make the assumption that you’re a playoff team, then production over the last 3 weeks (playoff weeks) are infinitely more valuable than any previous production.
I would still draft Salazar where you see his value (ignoring the playoff weeks), but keep it in the back of your mind that you will trade him off and he will NOT part of your playoff roster.
What would be your top ten for a 5×5 obp league? Thanks
Reg 10
Mike Trout 1
Miguel Cabrera 2
Paul Goldschmidt 3
Clayton Kershaw 4
Robinson Cano 5
Andrew McCutchen 6
Max Scherzer 7
Yu Darvish 8
Chris Davis 9
Jason Kipnis 10
But I’d put Votto in there instead of Kipnis.
Your z-score method of generating auction values changed my life. Well, as much as fantasy baseball can. For a H2H daily lineup league, I’ve found equal utility in generating fVAR for per-PA stats alongside counting and PA-weighted stats. In fact, I take the average of the two auction values, which tends to bring big call-up players and part-timers closer to replacement level.
However, I’m a little concerned that the sum of players with positive auction values add up to far more than my league’s total budget. What would you do to address this, if anything?
You have to address this with the auction calc formula and the number of players at/above RL. They have to reflect the league.
If possible, can you provide a link to where I can read about this method of generating auction values? Thanks!
ESPN 5×5, $265, 9 Pitchers, 5 OF, keep 4.
Inherited a very bad team, so I need everything. Would you rather keep $1 Alexei Ramirez or $6 Wil Myers?
Ten teams! Thanks
$6 Wil Myers for sure. He looks like a stud. In a 5 OF league, I’d want to go into the auction with at least one solid OF secured. There are similar MI ilk to Ramirez, so he is replaceable.
Myers and it’s not close.
What are your projections for Grady Sizemore?
Sadness.
I’m in a 20 tan dynasty league. have to submit my keepers tomorrow. I need speed and Gordon looks like he’s going to be starting. should I keep him over Jared Cosart? I have Kluber, Skaggs, Straily, Minor and Cingrani as starters now.
You have a ton of pitchers, and Cosart doesn’t seem all that special and worth adding to your pitching keepers, in an already deep position. Gordon appears to be the lead candidate at this moment for the Dodgers 2B job, so I’d keep him and hope that he performs well enough this time to keep his job and contribute in SB.
No need for Cosart with the depth that you have.
we keep 20 players. I’m in year 3 of a total rebuild. my keepers are: W. Rosario, J. Montero, C.Davis. Rizzo, M. Adams, Wong, Aybar, J. Baez, Moose, Cecchini, M. Davidson, Eaton, Bradley Jr, Dickerson.
Just to chime in but I would think J. Montero is an easy drop there.
I hear what youre saying about Montero, but I think there’s too much upside there in a dynasty league. He’s not worth much right now, but if he turns things around with his hitting ability, he’ll be worth a lot. If it was a re-draft league, I wouldn’t go anywhere near him. I’m afraid someone picks him up and then I regret it. That’s how I ended up with Chris Davis. Someone gave up on him, and I picked him up. He’s pretty similar to Davis in the sense that he was a universal top tier hitting prospect but took some time getting used to major league pitching.
Last keeper in 12-team, 12 keeper lg: Billy Ham, Matt Moore, or Matt Adams?
I’ll ask so that others might be able to provide a more informed answer: who are your other 11 keepers?
Moore in a vacuum.
TO be fair, Matt Adams would not fit in any vacuum I’ve ever seen.
12 team, mixed, points keeper league.
We can keep up to 5 keepers if we choose for our 1-5 draft picks. I have Goldy, Cutch, Adam Jones as 1, 2, 3.
Am considering keeping Ryan Zimmerman, Kenley Jansen, and Matt Kemp as 4 and 5. Any thoughts? One or two or none of those guys?
Thanks
Zimm and Kenley sound good.
How has Dickey’s knuckleball velocity looked so far this spring? If he can sling it at 76-78 will we see something closer to 2012 than 2013?
Honestly, I have no clue. Jeff Zimm is the man to ask about Spring Velo.
i have picks 15,16 in a 5×5 h2h. i already have goldy and freddie keepered. should i go for Kipnis and ________. or two differnt players. maybe longo?
At 15 and 16 I think Kipnis is an excellent grab if still available. He could be a 25/25 guy in your middle infield. For pick 16 looks at outfield: in some mocks I see Braun slipping to here. If no sure-fire stud OF is available at that pick, snag Longoria or Beltre or Hanley Ramirez if they are still on the board.
Kipnis works nice in your setup.
What does Gallardo’s velocity look like this spring?
No clue.
I’ve been looking around and I still can’t seem to find anything here. Sorry.
in a league where Mauer is C eligible, what number pick or round would you target him?
He should be C eligible in every league. He’s a mid/late-fifth round target for me.
How many starts does Alex Wood make this year? Does he finish the year in the bullpen? Thanks!
I think he’ll be in the rotation for the full season given Atlanta’s injuries and lack of depth.
Who are some SPs who may become valuable RPs this year?
I have no idea what you mean.
Who are some starting pitchers who will not make their team’s rotation and end up in the bullpen?
Carlos Martinez
Ah. If Detweiler loses the 5th starter spot in WAS, he could be sneaky.
Capuano in BOS, too, since he’s likely to start there anyway.
Joe Kelly in STL another.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/top-relievers-qualified-as-a-starter/
In a 10-team roto keeper league, would you rather have Hosmer or Pujols. I feel Hosmer is being overrated. Is it because of his power potential or because he is one of the few 1B who contribute SB.
Hosmer is on the rise, while Pujols is on the decline. Hosmer does contribute the rare HR+SB combo. If he develops more HR power, he approaches Goldschmidt territory. While not likely that he will be as valuable as Goldschmidt (certainly not this year, except maybe in points leagues that penalize batters for striking out), at least there is potential there.
Hosmer, for both reasons. He’s well-rounded.
Rank for 5×5 roto dynasty: Cameron Maybin, Josh Reddick, Leonys Martin, Khris Davis, Marcel Ozuna, Lorenzo Cain, Junior Lake.
Some context if it matters: My team is young overall, and the OF is my last obstacle to competing. I have Oscar Taveras and Gregory Polanco in the upper minors. My infield is Sal Perez/Wilson Ramos, Hosmer/Goldschmidt, Kipnis, Simmons/Bogaerts, Rendon, so there’s a mix of power and speed but no burner.
If you want speed, some measure of future security, and to aid in competing this year (as you should since the rest of your roster looks quite stacked) the only name on that list that I would consider is Martin. He should hit for average, steal plenty of bases, and score runs, especially if he ends up at the top of the Texas order.
I’m looking more from the perspective of who to cut as I draft. I know one of Abreu or Tanaka will be there for my first pick, and after that I may be scrounging for saves. (With 1B, INF, and UTIL spots, I can start 3 1B at a time so Abreu makes sense even with Hosmer and Goldschmidt present.)
After Martin they all have some upside with a good bit of risk, so I’m having trouble prioritizing who to cut.
Davis, Lake, Reddick, Ozuna, Martin, Maybin
There are many who predict that Rex Brothers will take over the closer role by midseason. However, Brothers is arbitration eligible in 2015, and I am concerned that Colorado will limit his save opportunities so that they will be in a position to sign him for less money.
Agree or disagree:
Rex Brothers will be given a few matchup-based save opportunities, but will remain in the setup role all season, unless LaTroy Hawkins either implodes or gets injured.
Agree for the most part. I have no handle on how COL does things, though, because they’re incredibly dumb.
Is Younder Ventura worthy pitcher in a slighly deeper mixed 10 team? Post draft and thinking about using a waiver claim.
No – I think he is a fringe option in 12-teamers, and not worth a pickup yet in 10-teamers. Right now he is all hype, but doesn’t have the track record or play for the team to justify dropping anyone of value for him at this point. I don’t see him projected as being a game-changer type that would make it worth trying to get ahead and claiming him now.
If you hear he’s won a rotation spot, and you need SP, then go for it.
Would Danny Duffy be fantasy relevant in very deep leagues if he made the rotation?
Sure would!
In a 10-team H2H categories league that counts both saves and holds as separate categories, with most teams probably carrying 5-6 relievers, do you take relievers earlier than standard leagues? Does your valuation of standard relievers vs. starters change?
It’d bump RP up a little bit, yeah. You can chase SV+HLD with a lower ERA/WHIP than chasing W+K.
In a dynasty league who would you rather have (no inflation) Machado or Bogaerts?
Manny.
If Carlos Martinez had a guaranteed rotation spot, where would he place in SP rankings and around whom?
Around the Bartolo range, a mixed-league contributor.
Oh my goodness, such a nice endeavor…thanks!
In a head-to-head keeper league, where this year’s performance is slightly more important to me than keeper value, how do you rank Kazmir, Porcello, Gausman and Bundy?
Thanks again.
1. Porcello
2. Kazmir
3. Gausman
4. Bundy
Porcello, Kazmir, Guasman, Bundy.
15 Team Mixed-
What is the latest round you would wait to grab your first SP at maximum?
Is an ‘ace’ required to realistically compete?
5
Depends if it’s roto or h2h, but probably 5th or 6th.
do u value pitchers less or more in h2h? why?
Strategy is different depending on who else is off the board. Have to weigh punting in H2H while you really shouldn’t do so in roto.
H2H, with OBP and SLG: Braun or Votto in the 1st? Longo or Stanton in the 2nd?
Votto and Longo.
Thanks. Very much appreciated.
I play in a 5×5 roto keeper. Please rank these pitchers: Tanaka, Teheran, Salazar, Shelby, Moore,Shields. Thanks
Salazar, Shelby, Shields, Teheran, Moore, Tanaka.
seeing wide variation in PA projections for Mike Napoli — 600 on PECOTA, 472 on Steamer. Makes a big difference for all his counting stats, including of course HR. Is reality likely somewhere in the middle, or do you favor one or the other end of those ?
I favor Steamer in this case.
Is Mark Reynolds going to be a startable 3b option for a NL only league?
Probably not.
Who hits more bombs- Khris Davis or Chris Carter.
chris hits 35
Ch.
Batting in front of Trout, is it completely unreasonable to project an 85 run floor out of Kole Calhoun?
If you had to pick one catcher to just plug into the slot and forget about for the rest of the year out of Ramos, Montero and Gomes, who would it be?
ramos when healthy is top 10
85 floor? No.
Montero, because I like his ballpark and trust him to stay healthy over Ramos.
Who will win the Rangers closer job? If it’s Feliz, will 94 mph be enough to be a decent pitcher?
I think it’s Feliz, and 94 is enough for him to be good, but not great.
Who is your daddy and what does he do?
Or: Which two would you drop of Morrow, Odorizzi, Mejia, and Skaggs?
My daddy is a nerd and works for Boeing.
I’d drop stinky and Mejia.
I wanted to say drop Morrow and Odorizzi, but Mejia is probably the right answer, with a career high of something like 120 iP.
Thanks for the answers, gentlemen.
Any concerns on Choo’s elbow? Cortisone shots in March are worrisome…
Little worried, but not freaking out yet.
He says it happens every Spring. And he did hit a home run last night after that shot, so…
Yeah, I get super concerned anytime a pitcher farts and gets a funny look on his face, but I tend to believe more in the resiliency of hitter.
Assuming Cabrera and Trout go 1-2, who would you go with for the 3rd pick? OBP league.
cutch easy
Goldy.
What’s your projection for Schoop? Will he be fantasy relevant this year?
Also, is Odor a decent keeper in deep leagues? Do you see him getting traded to net Texas some SP help?
I don’t think Schoop is relevant this year.
I wouldn’t be keeper Odor.
I dont have a lot of time for researching players. I’ve chosen to draft hitting based on value in the auction, wRC+ and expected playing time. For pitching, aside from auction value and playing time, what 1 or 2 stats do you recommend I focus on?
K and FIP
Carlos Gonzalez or Jose Altuve?
as a followup and less snarky commet: for your fantasy rankings what (or who) did you set as replacement value for 2B? Why is it that Altuve is SO much higher than SS like Andrus or Evereth.
You think this is snarky, but it’s actually Altuve.
BOOM. THE TABLES HAVE TURNED.
well played.
Which is absolute insanity.
Thanks for this -14 team OBP 1 catcher league, please rank: Wieters, Montero, Martin, Castro, Salty
Wieters, Montero, Castro, Martin, Salty.
14 Team Ottoneu FanGraphs Pts. League
Pitching Staff
Cashner
Corbin
Hamels
Miley
Santana
Outfield
Holliday
Bruce
Rios
Aoki
Crisp
Gattis (also using as 2nd catcher)
Only taking into account this year; would you spend a large chunk of my money on a big name Pitcher (Verlander, Tanaka, Cain) or big name OF (Braun)?
Please rank these three SP’s for this year only:
K.Gausman
Y.Ventura
M.Pineda
thanks
Ventura, Gausman, Pineda
6×6 keeper league (4 keepers) with OPS.
Should I trade away Stras and Segura for Edwin Encarnacion? I’ve already got Votto, Prince and Matty Carp.
I wouldn’t: it doesn’t appear that this trade would fill an area of great need for you. Segura should again be one of the top-5 shortstops and with the guys you currently have his speed will be valuable.
Uh, no.
Really like Baez. Is there any chance he could be up by all star break or breaks camp.Play in keep four, twelve team roto..would you suggest picking him up this year? Possible top 48 by next year?
I like him, but that’s too aggressive. Expect AA/AAA time this year with good shot at breaking camp next year. Expect an adjustment period when he makes it. Top 48 from 2016 on.
Jesus you really do love him. Don’t expect much of anything from him this season, even if he does come up to bigs.
I recently signed Medlen to a multiyear extension in a dynasty league (pre-injury of course). What chance would you give of him ever effectively starting a game in the Majors again after two TJ?
Dr. Andrews has said the odds of returning from a 2nd TJ to approximately the previous form has been around 20% overall, and it’s been higher for RPs than SPs.
25%?
5×5 12 team roto keeper league with 5 OF, 1 CI, 1 MI, 1 Util
Can keep 8 players. Lock keepers are
Trout
Bautista
Kipnis
Pence
Verlander
H. Bailey
Choose two out of this group:
Hamels
M. Carpenter (2B, 3B elig)
Craig (1B, OF elig)
Alvarez
Thanks
The Cardinals.
6 keepers: take six hitters or do we need a pitcher here?
Is the pitcher named Kershaw?
Holy shit this is vague.
NL only 13 team, 2 catcher league. Standard roto. $270 cap
Would you keep Russell Martin at $14? As it stands now (roster freeze is next weekend) only Lucroy and Ramos are available that are be better than Martin.
Yeah, I’d hang onto him for that.
League with 5 cats + OPS and FPCT. Please rank Wright, Longoria, Stanton, Puig.
I’m going to ignore the dumbass FPCT and say Stanton, Puig, Longoria, Wright.
It is a dumb category but you shouldn’t ignore it. I definitely would be playing as many DHs and OFs as I could fit into my lineup. If Zobrist is SS eligible and ends up playing RF for the Rays, he might be the friggin’ fantasy MVP.
OK maybe 1Bs would be better than DHs since a DH would be a 0.00 z-score and a 1B would be very, very high due to easy putouts.
(Last comment: a 3B-eligible, 1B-playing Miggy is pretty insanely valuable too. Probably the easy #1 considering Trout won’t touch the fielding chances Miggy will get.)
Hey Zach! Thanks for doing this. How would you rank Hutchison, Baker, Alvarez, Doubront, Cahill and De La Rosa for this season?
which DLR?
Doubront, Cahill, Alvarez, Baker, Hutch
The Jorge variety.
I’d put him above Alvarez, then.
AL only minor league draft. Top 50 prospects per fangraphs all owned so we will be choosing from 50-100 and anyone not on the list. College and overseas players are eligible. How fast would you grab Rodon? Anyone else worth considering? Perhaps Trea Turner?
Rafael Montero and Justin Nicolino stand out to me.
AL only…
In a dynasty league with deep benches, but with prospects taking up roster spots, is Alfaro worth hanging holding onto?
Would need more info, but Alfaro is in the 100-150 range on prospect lists and would probably be in the 80-100 range if you made it more fantasy oriented.
Nope.
How much value do elite closers have in k/9 leagues? I typically don’t value closers highly but in my keeper league I have a chance to grab Greg Holland with an early pick and I’m wondering if this is wise. I could go with a guy like Alex Gordon, Ortiz or Jordan Zimmerman instead.
Closers have great value in those leagues, but I think I’d take Holland.
Better AL keeper auction draft strategy to get a good deal on Jose Abreu… Throw his name out first while better corner infielders are on the board (and so teams may temper bids to get
a better guy), or wait as late as you can
For his name to be called and hold on to enough auction dollars to win him?
Name called late.
Pretty much regardless of who’s left, early guys get bigger bucks.
At 2B: Gyorko or Aaron Hill?
At 3B: Gyorko or Sandoval?
Thanks!
Gyorko / Sandoval
I’m picking sixth in an 8-team keeper/dynasty roto league (first year of the league). Uses AVG and OPS. Assuming Trout/Cabrera/Goldschmidt/McCutchen are off the board at 6, how would you rank Kershaw/CarGo/Harper? I’m guessing I’ll be picking between those three.
Also another question for the same league, how early in the draft should I feel comfortable taking guys like Xander or Profar?
How would you rank these young endgame AL only starters, best to worst in a redraft: E Johnson, Carrasco, Hutchison, Maurer, Gibson, peacock, Keuchel?
Hutch is the only one that even makes me think.
6×6 (remove BA ad OBP & SLG | Remove wins and K’s, add IP, QS and K/9). I can keep 4 of the following:
Yasiel Puig
Aroldis Chapman
Cliff Lee
Jean Segura
Jose Bautista
Manny Machado
Shin-Soo Choo
Wil Myers
I’m hungover and the cafeteria at work is out of pancakes. Should I get eggs benedict or a loaded omelette?
Not enough information. How many different types of cheese are available for this omelette?
omeletee with meat in it. get your protein – u dont need the benedict right now this isnt a fancy restaurant
Cheese options are limiteds. A shredded co-jack type deal, or slices of cheddar/american/pepperjack. Meats available are bacon, sausage, kielbasa, ham, turkey.
Eggs are yucky.
This is incorrect.
This is my AQA thread, so no sir, you are incorrect.
NL-only roto keeper league, inflation at auction is probably 20-25%. I’m keeping Kershaw, Wainwright and Tyson Ross already for $54 of my $260.
If I can’t find a trade partner, is Minor worth keeping at $19?
I should note that we have no benches. If you own a starter, you get every start they make.
Sure is.
What is your most optimistic and most pessimistic projections that are also realistic for Yasiel Puig with my league’s hitting categories barring injury: R, HR, XBH, RBI, BB, SB, and AVG? Thank you in advance.
I like a combo of Oliver and ZIPS projections for him.
Hi! Thank you so much for doing this thread.
What are your thoughts on going after players with a history of injury like Jason Heyward, Albert Pujols or Matt Kemp? It seems like there is the potential for having either a terrific season or wasting a pick. I’m leaning away from taking the risks, but at some point these players will need to be drafted. Are there any in-draft tactics that helps you decide?
It’s a bit of a philosophical question! Thank you for the advice.
I think there’s a big difference between guys like Heyward/Kemp and Pujols.
If they’re young, it more worth it. But in the case of someone like Pujols who has had injuries that in the past he’s played through and now are taking him down as he ages, it’s not a great gamble.
Is it wrong to coach a team who’s facing a team you don’t want to face in the playoffs? Maybe to suggest to them two-start pitchers or hitters they should swap out?
It’s not right, but it’s not an impeachable offense either.
It’s not right, but it’s not an impeachable offense either.
So, whatever.
25-team mixed dynasty league. You have topper rights ($1 more than winning auction bid) on any player you don’t keep. Let’s say another team has Ryan Braun, who can be kept at $38 this coming season. With inflation, I’d say he’s worth at least $40. But Braun’s suspension (and relatively poor performance) last season may drive down his price at auction.
Under the circumstances, would you target Braun in trade (a) with the intent to keep him at $38; (b) to use your topper rights on any bid below $40; or (c) not at all?
Hope this is a reasonable question! Thanks. sds
In a 25-teamer, I’d keep at $38.
Hi Zach and thanks for your time answering all of our burning questions.
I am in a 14-Team H2H points keeper league where keeper position is determined by where the player was previously drafted with yearly adjustments for inflation.
I am in a position to keep 2 out of the following 3 SPs and I was wondering what pair of pitching dudes you like heading into this season, with a possible eye towards long-term keeper consideration:
Corey Kluber (21 round [last round])
Michael Pineda (21st round)
Jeff Samardzija (13th round)
Thanks again!
Corey Kluber Society, and A Jiz Dramas
I’m in a league that allowed draft picks to be traded last year, so a few other teams have a ton of early picks. I have almost all normal draft picks except I’m missing my 3rd round. I have 12th pick in a snake draft. I have to strategies to take make up the gap with the teams with insanely good draft picks: Draft more upside than normal and wait even extra long on SPs. However, since I’m waiting on SPs, would it be a good idea to take 2 closers in a row with the 12th pick of the 5th round and the first pick of the 6th? Assuming all closers are on the board, which two would you take?
Kimbrel and Aroldis.
6×6 league with OPS and Holds as the added categories. 1 Util spot, no MI or CI. Must keep 10 players, and we can keep players forever with no cost or penalty. Pretty sure I’ll be keeping Pedroia, Bogaerts, Wright, Braun, Ellsbury, J.Upton, Kershaw, and Wainwright.
Who would you pick for the last two spots? Pujols, Kemp, Hamels, Bailey, or Springer?
Thanks.
Kemp and Hamels.
10 team H2H league with daily changes, max 10 starts per week. Pitching categories are W, K, WHIP, ERA, SV, and HD. There are 3 RP slots, 3 SP slots, and 2 flex P spots, plus bench positions. I have three questions.
1) Do you have a good method for projecting holds? Steamer and ZiPS don’t do it.
2) Do you have any recommendations for how to value closers relative to set-up guys?
3) Does it make sense to target RP that are also SP eligible and use 6 relief pitchers on a daily basis?
Standard 5 x 5, 12 teams, keep 7 players. Keeping five hitters plus Gray. Keep Scherzer at $17 or D Robertson at $0 for final spot?
Free Robertson.
Is keeping Brian Roberts for $2, AL only OPB, ridiculous?
Pretty much.
That’s $0.25 per expected start!
Thanks for answering. Can you rank the following in terms of mixed league relevance this year: Straily, Kluber, Gausman, Cashner, T Ross? Also, who do you like most out of the second-year pitchers: S. Gray, G. Cole, Teheran, Salazar?
Kluber, Cashnet, Straily, Ross, Gausman
Salazar.
Should I keep Marte or Cole as a 9th rounder in my league’s snake draft? Already keeping Puig – league is h2h/5×5.
Cole it is then.
First rd , 10th pick h2h keeper league. who do you take? Fielder or Braun?
Braun.
Jarrod Parker top 25 pitcher this year? Increased k rate with his nasty changeup should happen!
lol no
problem is he needs to advance control of his fastballs or get a better slider. he gets good whiff rate from the change, but that’s it.
10 keeper h2h league. when do you snag Abreu?
Middle rounds at some point.
4 players that WILL debut before September 1 that you would want as forever keepers. In order please. (I’m leaning taveras, Baez, springer, Russell.) Thanks.
Tavares, Taillon, Springer, Abreu (cop out but whatever)
I have the #1 pick in a 10 team 5×5 redraft snake. In my mock last night my pitching staff ended up as: Darvish, Strasburg, Cole, Cobb, Gray, Porcello, and relievers Nathan, Henderson, Hunter. I feel like I should be happy with this. Would that be a solid staff to start the year? What category should I be looking for on my bench?
You should be looking for RP.
Thanks- I’m normally good at jumping on the guys who take jobs away in April, so I don’t put a priority on relievers in the draft beyond one sure thing-ish kind of guy. Glad to see that you think the starters are okay, though! Thanks again.
Oops- forgot I have Bucholz as the 7th starter and Alex Wood on the Bench. Sorry.
Where/how can I find auction values on the site?
Not up right now. If you’re looking for ottoneu values, Chad has you covered in FG+.
Danny Salazar and Andrew Cashner. Who is gonna produce better numbers this year? Thx Zach
Salazar is my spirit animal.
Dumpster diving in OF in a deep AL only… Please rank: Jd Martinez, kubel, Melky, Presley, ibanez, nava, urrutia
Thanks so much!
Nava, Melky, and Ibanez all have chances to be good for you.
I have a pleasant dilemma to start off. I am in a H2H 5X5 Keeper league using OBP and QS instead of AVE and W’s.
We can have 7 Keepers and I can go in several directions:
Hitters: McCutchen, Braun, Harper, Encarnacion, Kipnis, Bautista
SP: Wainwright, Lee, Fernandez, Scherzer, Bumgarner, Verlander, Sanchez
RP: Kimbrel, Chapman
I would appreciate any thoughts you had on the choices. McCutchen, Harper and Encarnacion seem easy, but the rest are hard to pick without a clear direction.
Have to keep Fernandez and Baumgardner, too, and that takes you to 5.
Last two would probably be Kipnis and Waino for me.
Thanks.
Only took be 80 minutes to catch up this morning. The response has been overwhelming thus far, and I love it. I’ll be back in throughout the day!
Thank you for doing this. LOVE AQAs!
12-team, standard 5X5 roto league w/ MI/CI/5OF/9P and $260 cap. Which five would you keep? And are any of them worth keeping for more than one year at an extra $5 per year? Thanks!
Jedd Gyorko $8
Xander Bogaerts $6
Rajai Davis $6
Kole Calhoun $6
Todd Frazier $6
Danny Salazar $6
Francisco Liriano $6
Hyun-Jin Ryu $6
Michael Pineda $6
Salazar and Ryu worth locking up long-term.
Salazar, Ryu, Gyorko, Booger, Liriano
High risk, high reward question:
In a roto league where keeps are forever, and hitters are ranked by RC and pitchers by W’s and league-adjusted ERA, who do you think has the greatest upside long-term: Frazier or Giolito? All three OF spots have to manned, and MiLBers can be held for no cost. Thanks!
when is Matt harrison going on the DL? i needa stash
Posey or Rios as fourth keeper in a 12 team/1 catcher roto league? Or take a chance on B. Hamilton?
Posey
Long term do you see Gyorko moving back to 3B? If so, when?
If they can’t lock Headley up, he’ll be there next year.
Could you please comment on Khris Davis’s value in a dynasty? Should we trust the scarcely found elsewhere tool (The power), or should we worry that he’ll get exposed with more playing time, a la Brennan Boesch?
Yeah, could be Boesch, but could be a Nelson Cruz. I think he’s at least got the ability to hit 20-25 a year, and that’s worth something.
Shortstop: Simmons or B. Miller. Both can be protected for the next three years. Thanks.
Miller.
Taking Trout #1. Of these, who would you go with in rounds 2/3? (league is pitching heavy so I believe these will all be available)
Encarnacion
Beltre
Pedroia
Tulowitzki
Harper
12 Team, H2H points
Wow. Beltre and Harper please.
How would you rank these five SPs? P. Corbin, D. Straily, Ivan Nova, Alex Wood, Shelby Miller.
See my SP rankings on the site.
6th pick in a 12 team 6×6 snake (OPS CG’s are extras).
Am I insane to like Harper with this pick? I think his upside makes it so enticing, especially with Davis, CarGonzo not jumping out at me in the moment. Byrce just strikes me as Griffey Junior and I want to be in on 93 like breakout from Byrce…..
If you believe in the upside and health, it’s not insane, but I wouldn’t do it. Too many “established” guys up top.
12-team auctioin, 6X6 roto (OPS, K/BB) league w/ MI/CI/4OF/9P and $270 cap. We keep 5 players. I already plan on keeping:
Adam Wainwright $15
Jason Kipnis $16
Jose Fernandez $4
I need to pick 2 more from this list:
Brian McCann $6
Jedd Gyorko $5
David Robertson $4
Trevor Rosenthal $8
Andrew McCutchen $41
Hyun-Jin Ryu $4
I’m leaning towards McCann and Gyorko. What do you think? Thanks!
Your instincts are right with Gyorko, but I would probably go with Ryu as the #2.
Just wondering your thoughts on my last keeper, if that’s all right. It’s a 10 team standard 5×5 where we start C,1B,2B,SS,3B,OFx3,UTIL; we can keep any eight players.
Right now I’ve settled on seven: Trout, McCutchen, Freeman, Wright, Machado, Jose Fernandez, Bumgarner.
For my last keeper I can choose from: Aroldis Chapman, Greg Holland, Verlander, Cole, Kemp, Profar and Rosario.
I was thinking Chapmsn just to give me quality guys covering most positions but was also thinking about Profar. Thoughts on the eighth? Swap out anyone from my seven? Thanks!
Cole.
In a keeper draft (20tm, pts league) how you would rank these top available players:
a. rizzo, j. abreu, d. salazar, m. tanaka, j. gyorko, b. miller, a. simmons.
Sorry if that’s too many names.. i couldn’t see anyone who obviously needed to be left out.
Awesome post!
. I’m in a 12 team H2H redraft where we use R,HR,RBI,OBP,SLG,NSB on offense. I tend to weight NSB down a bit because the close relation of the first 5 offensive stats. This has created an unusual problem I noticed when calculating value for positionally weighted z-scores. The drop off for certain positions has become rather extreme. For example, there is roughly a $20 drop of between Tulo($34) and Ian Desmond,which make sense because SS with power are rare and OBP skills. Roughly the same difference between a Goldschimdt/Davis/Votto and Rizzo/Abreu(which I have at $25ish). There is a big caveat though. This is a snake draft. How should I handle such a significant drop off? I know I should probably take the best player on the board,but if I don’t take a top tier shortstop, I’m not going to find anything close. The real problem is that I am picking fourth…An awful spot.
In an 10tm, NL-only, traditional scoring, would you rather keep Kolten Wong at $1 or Kershaw at $40?
Depends on inflation, but probably Kershaw.
I’m in a 12 team 6 keeper OBP league where each keeper is assigned a round based on their average draft position of the previous season. The majority of the keepers are top 100 players going into the new year.
I have five solid keepers and the 13th overall selection in the draft. Would drafting Buxton, Baez, or Springer there be a smart decision?
Um, no.
I’m looking for some keeper help. 10 team 6×6 league (OPS and QS), keep 4 with no restrictions. I am the champ, so I have last pick. Whoever I drop most likely will not make it back to me. Which 4 would you keep?
Prince Fielder
Bryce Harper
Yu Darvish
Adam Wainwright
Jean Segura
Eric Hosmer
Jason Heyward
Thanks for the input.
Bryce, Yu, Segura, Waino
You’re the best for the help! Keeper question. 14 mixed league 5×5 25 man roster 250$ salary cap. Keep 7 w/some salary inflation. Keeping Tulo (18); Craig (7); Kipnis (14); Beltre (21); David Price (18); Kenley Jansen (4).
Who gets the final spot:
Brandon belt (6) or Desmond Jennings (13)?
Deezy to give you OF depth.
A couple of quick ranks …
1B – Hosmer, Rizzo, AGon and Ortiz
OF – Choo, Rios, Holliday and Pence
Take a look at the consensus rankings for these, if you would.
In a 9-team NL-only 5×5 keeper league with 12 bench spots, is Vic Black worth keeping — I’d have him at $0 bc he’s still a farm player. I have Parnell, and think the handcuff is good, but there are a lot more players near him (Roark, JGray, Mejia) I think I’d prefer? Where do you put Black on that list?
(basically the question is if Black worth a roster spot coming into the season)
I think if you have to choose between Vic and Gray, the choice is easily Gray.
That being said, i’m not sure Vic has much value this year.
Who are 2 or 3 post hype sleepers your are all in on?
None. But I’m cautiously in on Dustin Ackley.
I have to keep 2 of the following Bauer, Cosart, Duffy or Taylor Jordan. Who should I keep?
Duffy and Cosart
Keep 5 (no fees) standard 5×5:
Puig, J Upton, Pujols, Scherzer, Kershaw, Segura, Hosmer, & C Gomez.
Kershaw, Puig, Scherzer, Gomez, Segura
Thanks
Mesoraco for $3 or D’Arnaud for $5?
D’Arnaud. I was in on Meso when he was drafted, but I’m out now.
Why?
In 4×4 roto, what are approximate values for Pedro Strop and Carlos Martinez?
4×4?
Yes. No runs and no Ks.
5×5 h2h 10 team league
I was offered hanley ramirez for ryan braun.
Would you accept the offer?
I don’t think I would.
I’m finding myself coveting an unusual number of Padres hitters this year, namely Gyorko, Headley, and Venable. For their expected auction prices, they seem to offer huge values. Am I crazy? My league includes H & OPS in addition to the regular 5 hitting stats.
Not crazy! I like Yonder and Denorfia, too.
To get more specific, the Padres scored 3.81 R/game in 2013 (7th-worst), and they’re projected to score 3.97 R/game in 2014 (5th-worst). Is there any reason to hope that these players might improve on the R/RBI totals they put up in 2013?
Full year of Yonder, Gyorko improving, Grandal and Everth being more present all helps cause. Headley could bounce back in contract year, as well.
I’m trying to start a roto league this year with some guys who aren’t very familiar with fantasy baseball. They are wanting to make it more like fantasy football with stuff like “how about a homer is 3 points and a strikeout is -1!” Is it cool for me to just say “hey we are doing classic roto whether you like it or not. try it and you will like it” or should I just go for a league wide vote?
Points leagues aren’t bad if the settings are decent. Something like 1 point per Total Base, points for SB-CS, stuff like that.
Or, install the SABR points setting and see how that goes. Tell them it’s traditional baseball points and see if they get into it.
Dynasty League, no restrictions. 5×5 w/ OPS instead of AVG. Best Keeper: Kemp, Hosmer, Donaldson?
Donaldson.
First time fantasy player. 10-team roto league w/ 5 keepers, inherited a bad team. This is my SP lineup: C. Sale, M. Wacha, P. Corbin, U. Jimenez, E. Santana. I also have Porcello, Smyly, and Pineda.
Did I screw up? (Apologies if this is an unreasonable question, feel free to disregard if so! happy friday!)
Hard to say if you screwed up w/o knowing what decisions were made. But, in a 10-teamer, that’s not a promising rotation.
5×5 pick 3: Homer Bailey, Allen Craig, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Alex Gordon. TY!!!
Gordon, Bailey, Craig
Jean Segura vs. Jose Altuve — position aside, what do you see as the relative strengths and weaknesses of each? I’m thinking that if you snag a cheap 2B/SS like Miller, Profar, or Lowrie then you could grab either one of these guys, and Altuve is cheaper so why not him?
I like some of the later SS this year, so Altuve becomes the best bet.
I think Altuve is going to struggle with R/RBI, but less so than last year.
Better Oriole -man for this year: Till or Gaus? For next year?
Till this, Gaus next.
Out of Schoop, Semien, Olt who would start opening day and what is their full year fantasy value?
I suspect none will be around Opening Day, but Olt has most value this year.
5×5 NL-only keeper league, my keepers are:
Starlin Castro, SS
Carlos Gomez, OF
Michael Cuddyer, OF
Aroldis Chapman, RP
Homer Bailey, SP
Andrew Cashner, SP
Mark Melancon, RP
Bobby Parnell, RP
Jedd Gyorko, 2B
Evan Gattis, C
It’s a little pitching-heavy, so how long would you wait on SPs? I’ve targeted Samardzija, but do you think it’d be wise to instead wait on the Kennedy/Hudson/JJohnson $-values? And given the structure of my hitters, would you emphasize power or speed when the auction comes? Thanks.
Def should try to get as much SP depth as you can, since that’s your weakness. Going after 1 guy isn’t going to cut it.
which stat category do u prefer and why: Wins or QS?
QS. Both rely on defense, but at least QS doesn’t rely on their team’s offense to score runs.
Thanks for this, guys!
So: 12 team, mixed keeper points league.
We can keep two “rookie” keepers at the back end of our draft (picks 24 and 25). I ‘m keeping Wil Myers, who should give amazing value for that late pick.
But I have to choose between Travis d’Arnaud and Brad Miller for my other rookie eligible keeper.
What would you do?
Thanks again!
Forgot to mention: d’arnaud had only 99 ABs last season, so he is keepable for the next two years as a rookie (rule = 130 ABs).
I would go with d’Arnaud anyway, but I think this ought to seal it. Miller strikes me as pretty average for a fantasy middle infielder. d’Arnaud carries more risk but more upside too.
Brad Miller, and I’m going to say it’s not close.
How far will Cano’s counting stats and slashline dip this year from his career numbers, playing half his games at Safeco?
I see HR and SLG dipping, but some of those HRs should convert down to 2B instead of outs.
For 2015, which pitcher do you like better: K. Gausman (Bal) or Y. Ventura (KC)?
Whoever starts more, sooooo….Gausman.
What is your biggest positive note and your biggest negative note about Adam Eaton this year? (not a keeper league). Im especially interested in his SB upside – He stole 44 bases in the minors in 2011. How many SBs do you project this year?
Positive: Could steal 30 bags with ease
Negative: Better in OBP than standard
Thanks! I was a little scared of his very low # of attempts last year, but I’m glad you folks think a bounce-back in that category is within the realm of possibility.
1. Punting steals and saves in deep leagues, sound strategy or defeatist?
2. Darin Ruf, how many at bats could you reasonably expect?
3. How early is too early for Jose Abreu?
4. Corey Dickerson, possible stealthy contributor, or is he left off the roster?
1. H2H its fine, not in roto
2. Dont know
3. Round 6
4. If he’s playing every day, I want him.
Thank you so much for your ridiculously prompt response man!
We do net steals/saves, it makes the fringe options in those cats even sketchier. Ruf gets on base and hits but there aren’t at bats for him right now, after Abreu there is a bit of a cliff at 1b. With Dickerson he just seems like a 5 cat contributor that could be ohsovaluable later on.
In a 20 team league mixed, would you be comfortable hitching your catcher wagon to Dioneer Navarro/Yasmani Grandal?
Carlos Quentin, where should I draft him? I have him ridiculously high on my board as of now
Marcus Stroman/Brandon Morrow, who has more starts?
I’m in a 5×5 roto w/OBP instead of average. My no-brainer 1st round pick is votto should i miss out on trout/miggy/goldy. I’d rather be BOLD – how about Harper?
How about you just take Votto.
Pick 3 keepers from the following (standard 5×5):
> Prince Fielder (2nd rd pick)
> Pat Corbin (13th rd pick)
> Everth Cabrera (14th rd pick)
> Anthony Rizzo (13th rd pick)
> Jed Lowrie (22nd rd pick)
> Clay Buccholz (22nd rd pick)
thanks!
Hmmm. Everth, Rizzo, and………Corbin I guess.
lol @ corbin
I have Longoria @ 3b, XB @ SS, and Abreu @ UTIL. I have a bench spot that can either go to Brad Miller or Chase Headley. Who should get the spot. Traditional 5X5 re-draft.
Brad Miller
Dynasty points league — what’s an example or two of an appropriate complementary piece to go with Shin-Soo Choo to get Edwin Encarnacion?
I have no idea what you want from me.
AL-only, 12 team with OBP SLG RP HR SB-CS. Playing to win this year, but keep any of them one more time:
keep 2 (already locked in on my other 2 keepers).
O. Arcia $5
K. Calhoun $14
X. Bogaerts $10
A. Cobb $10
Inclined to go Arcia (extremely cheap power for this league) and Bogaerts (upside, especially in ’15) for the potential to outperform by more, but worried that Cobb or Calhoun seem like safer plays.
Booger and Cobb.
Will either Anthony Gose (OF, TOR) or Zach Britton (SP, BAL) be fantasy relevant (12 tm, 5×5) in the next 2-3 seasons?
Nope.
What stats best predict walk-rate and strike-out rate for pitchers? First strike percentage and swinging strike rate? Is there a place where I can see a summary of what stats predict what?
Please rank out of the 7 (I have 12.13 picks at end of first), ESPN Standard 5×5 H2H 12 teams
Keep in mind since it’s H2H, consistency and health do matter
Prince
Edwin
Beltre
Adam Jones
Bryce Harper
Braun
Votto
$260 cap for 23 players. Is $30 too much for Kipnis? How about $26 for Bruce?
Too much for Kipnis, but more reasonable for Bruce.
If you have a H2H Categories league that counts doubles, which type of player do you fill it with, speed guys or power guys?
por que no los dos?
I guess because power is harder to find late and in a deep league. I wonder who has more 2B overall, the fast guys who leg out an outfield fly, or the power guys who bounce one off the wall?
Which Rockies OF for this year? possible keeper?
Culberson
Blackmon
Dickerson
Dickerson, no one there strikes me as a keeper
Who do you prefer in a league that uses QS instead of wins. Milone or Chavez
If I understand your system correctly, you are weighing player value at each category against the replacement level players typically found on a waiver wire.
Why is that, when most of these players won’t factor into a starting fantasy lineup? Wouldn’t it be better to weigh second basemen, for instance, against the top 12 or 14 2B average output at each category to determine how much better/worse each player is at a statistical category than the alternatives, and thus determine where to draft them at?
Unless I’m not understanding the system correctly, in which case, apologies.
It weighs against the average player first, then goes to position adjustments.
Got it. My point is that your ranking of Altuve seems to be propped up by a crappy class of 2B in the ‘replacement’ level area (guessing those are 2B in the #14-18ish ranks).
I think if you compared Altuve instead against the 2B that are actually on fantasy rosters, that his numbers wouldn’t be helped up as much, with studs at the top such as Cano, Kipnis.
This seems counterproductive, since you’re comparing Altuve, and ranking him higher than other similar players at other positions, based on players who shouldn’t be on a fantasy roster unless in case of injury or emergency.
Better long term dynasty value: M. Franco or R. Odor?
Probably Franco? This is a really great, tough question though, and I’m not an expert enough on either one of them to say with confidence.
Thanks for the answer and the acknowledgment of uncertainty.
Kalhoun, Rugg or CYoung as the best fantasy OF this year? OBP/SLG league.
Calhoun. I like him this year.
What’s the best pitching strategy for a 6×6 roto with Holds added as the 6th category? I’ve never played in a league like this before. Seems like most teams would have to start at least two SVs guys and two HDs guys to be competitive in those cats. Daily lineups, so I’m mostly worried about standing with too many RPs and losing roster positions that I could use for streaming.
If it’s roto, it’s best to get a good deal of both, and then count on it dropping your ERA and WHIP.
In H2H, it can be easier just to pick either SV or HLD and go after that one.
I’m drafting in a 16-team mixed H2H points league (snake draft). How should I change my strategy compared to a 10- or 12-team league?
The thing to be most wary of is closers, but that could change b/c your point settings may be less favorable for them.
In a snake draft, not much changes, you just have to go about your business. It gets sticky in an auction where certain values will get inflated both naturally and artificially.
5×5 10 redraft roto H2H only 200 players picked, very shallow. I have the 8th pick. Who should I draft with my first two picks (8, 13) based on current ADPs? Currently leaning Hanley, Encarnacion. And strategy wise, wait on pitching and stream with such a deep FA pool?
Correct on the pitching. Real easy to play the weekly matchups, so get an ace or two and then take higher upside guys later.
For the first two, those would be smart if E5 is 3B eligible. Otherwise, look to Adam Jones or alike instead.
Will ask earlier question differently. In 4×4 roto, 10 teams, who do you like better at same price, Strop or Carlos Martinez? Is either worth $10?
I’d rather have Carlos Martinez in a vacuum, but I don’t know what your 4 categories are.
H2H, Linear Weights league. Need a 2B. Martin Prado, Aaron Hill, Jedd Gyorko, or Profar?
I’m partial to Prado this year, but you could convince me of Gyorko.
AL only. Cut one of:
Nick Swisher
Mike Napoli
Colby Rasmus
Napoli! No C elig makes him much less useful.
How do you adjust your dollar values for keeper leagues?
All depends on how many you get to keep! If you’re only going to keep 2-4 guys, it’s not a big deal just to go through normal values and see what comes of it.
If you have to be smart about balancing a budget for keepers, I always try to find guys late who I think are bound for a breakout, and pay an extra $ to get them cheap while I can.
16 team league keep 6
5 standard cats plus TB, BB, K
Would you trade Hanley (5th rd keep) for Hosmer (19th rd keep)? Inflation of 3 rounds per year.
Both would slot at IF because of following keeps:
Rizzo (23rd rd) 1B
Arenado (22nd rd) 3B
Bogaerts (20th rd) SS
I think I’d rather hang on to Hanley for insurance purposes up the middle. 5th round is great value for him in a 16-teamer.
Do you hesitate to keep a young SP because of injury risks? Bogaerts ($3) or Jose Fernandez ($12)? I feel like I could throw Bogaerts back and buy him for <$10 while Jose would cost upwards of $30. OBP and SLG instead of AVG.
I hesitate with pitchers a bit, but that only knocks a couple dollars off their value. In this case, Fernandez is the easy choice.
Thanks for doing this!
So I have the 10th pick in my draft and have narrowed my choice down to Braun, Jones, and Harper. How would you rank these and what would be your rationale?
I listened to Collette and Eno discuss Jones v Braun and even then there didn’t seem to be a consensus. Harper clearly has the higher upside and could post a 30/20 season as soon as this year. Braunand Jones are both post peak and could take a step back at any moment. Will Braun stop stealing bases? Will Jones’ athleticism continue to supersede his poor plate discipline? Can Harper improve versus LHP? This is where my concerns are at. Thanks for any insight!
I don’t think it’s fair to say Jones is “post peak.” He’ll be 28 this season, so he still probably has a couple years of peak production left.
Braun worries me a bit, but his floor is just so high that it’s hard to go wrong.
Personally, I have them Jones-Braun-Harper this year.
Thank you sir!
In a AL 10 team keeper league with $280 auction budget.I traded Springer for Salazar. Did I make the right decision or will I regret giving up a potential talent like Springer? Thank you for your input.
You trade raped him.
Hey thanks for the help.
I am drafting tonight in a new 14tm 9×9 crazy roto league and for the first time ever, blown saves is a category along with WINS,QS,WHIP,ERA,SV,HLD,K,BB for pitchers. I am wondering if I should just not draft any closers and take a high score in BSV, take a 1 in SV instead of trying to find a balance between them. What do you think of that idea?
I really don’t think it makes sense to stay away from closers entirely, but it does mean to not take any of the more shaky bottom-tier guys.
I don’t think it makes sense to stay away from closers entirely, but it does mean to not take any of the more shaky bottom-tier guys.
Tanaka, Abreu, Jon Gray, Kris Bryant or Giolito? (with more focus on 2-3 years than just this year.)
Thank you!
Let’s go Abreu, but you could talk me into Tanaka
I’m in a dynasty league but am going for the title this year. Should I trade Springer(4 years) for J.Upton(1 year) with my OF looking like Cargo, Choo, Calhoun and Ozuna? Or should I go for a pitcher with my rotation looking like Verlander, Greinke, Parker, Dickey and Wood.
I’d look for a SP.
In a standard Yahoo 12-team league (23 round draft), are there any closer handcuffs that are worth drafting as one of your last few picks of the draft?
Strop and Farquahar, just to name two.
Who do you like at 1.12 and 2.1? I’m thinking one of [Braun, Fielder, Harper] and one of [Tulowitzki, Cano, Kipnis]. Is it too early for some of those? I’m less interested in guys Puig, Beltre, Encarnacion, and Gomez, but would any of them be a better pick?
If it were impossible for Aramis Ramirez to get hurt starting now, what would his upcoming season look like?
.280+, 20 homers, 70+ R, 85+ RBI
Pretty solid.
Thanks for the last response. One more question. H2H, Linear Weights league. Keepers: Trout, Kershaw, Votto, Encarnacion, Mauer, Longoria, Heyward. In win now mode. For an overall draft strategy: Should I go risk/reward, assuming my keepers are a good safety net? Or should I go safe/reliable, assuming I just need a supporting cast? Or both?
i’d try to stay safe early and then takes some chances late.
Talk about getting a lot of comments.
I have three questions and they all have to do with your educated guess about who wins rotation jobs:
Carlos Martinez or Joe Kelly? Odds the winner keeps their job (assuming they have pitched well) if and when Garcia returns?
Straily over Milone and Pomeranz?
With Beachy now looking like he may have a second Tommy John, any way Alex Wood doesn’t get the fifth rotation spot?
Martinez and he stays.
Yes.
Correct.
CarMo stays. Straily. He’s in.
Do you think Chris Young has another vintage Arizona Chris Young season left in him, or do you think last year is a solid representation of what he is now? And assuming he starts for the Mets, would you be willing to guess as to where he’d see most of his at-bats? I’d be ecstatic if he led off; not because it’d be a really great option, but because I like Chris Young.
I think the HRs and SBs are there, but I just can’t see him hitting over .235.
would you trade Kyle Seager for Julio Tehran? I have 4 starters and a fifth in Cole Hamels but worried about Hamels long term. I have David Wright as my third baseman and Seager was the backup.
Thanks
If Seager’s the backup, move him. Never enough SP depth.
Hi, first time/long time, thanks for the insight.
My question is simple: Wright or Longoria?
Longo, but it’s basically a tie.
Tanaka, Pineda, Nova, Kuroda… who has the best year among those four?
Thanks!
Tanaka.
Thanks for doing this; what a mammoth undertaking! My question is a bit league-specific and convoluted, so feel free to bypass if looking at it makes your brain hurt.
I’m in an h2h-each category league. 10 teams.
However, we score on 8 hitting categories and 11 pitching categories. The lopsided nature has led other owners in the league to strongly focus on, and value, pitching. Teams leave the draft with between 8 and 10 starting pitchers.
My specific question is whether pitching, in such an environment, actually becomes a more treasured roster commodity that I should be spending early on in drafts, or if the excess (both of cats and roster slots) just sort of dilutes everything.
(I’d include the actual categories, but I’m trying to keep this question philosophical in nature so perhaps some other reader can gain something from it.)
Sure, but sometimes it helps to zig when others zag. If everyone’s taking P, you can sneak in great hitters and figure out a way to win enough cats to win most weeks.
5×5 OBP in place of AVG. Please rank the 3 safest draft picks once Trout & Cabrera are off the board. Thank you.
Goldy, Votto, Cutch.
In my Martinez v Strop question 4×4 are traditional roto categories: hr, sb, RBI, avg, saves, wins, ratio and ERA.
Do you think Cody Asche wins/keeps the 3B job all season? What is a rough ceiling for Maikel Franco if he can get a hold of the job early in the season? Thanks for taking the time.
I think he holds on to it for most of this year.
Ceiling for Franco is really high. If he’s up for a majority of the season, he could hit 20 dingers with a .270 or higher average, but his OBP will be atrocious.
I think he holds on to it for most of this year.
Ceiling for Franco is really high. If he’s up for a majority of the season, he could hit 20 dingers with a .270 or higher average, but his OBP will be atrocious.
Last minute keeper question:
15-team mixed 5×5 Roto (K/9)
Who takes the last spot: Feliz ($7), Soria ($1), Tyson Ross ($7), or Josh Johnson ($13). Longshot: Avisail Garcia ($10)
Thanks.
Take a shot on Soria, I suppose. But, I do like Avisail, just not quite at that price.
Which players should I target (whom I would normally avoid- obviously Adam Jones gets downgraded and set up men get upgraded) in a league which replaces AVG with OPS and OBP, and replaces W with QS and H?
Choo gets a nice upgrade, as does Mauer and Carlos Santana. Dexter Fowler another interesting one.
Was finally able to read through some of your earlier comments so sorry for the double question on Wood.
So I guess as a follow up (more educated guesses please), when does Yordano Ventura get the rotation spot?
Where and how can Lindor get time with the Indians this season if Asdrubal is not traded? How likely is it?
Oh and thank you very much for this. Very awesome and I am sure taking a lot of your day. Thanks for the time, it is appreciated.
I can’t speak much on when Ventura gets a spot, because it could very well be on the opening day roster. If he doesn’t win a job there, I’d still hope he’d be up again by June due to poor performance or injuries.
I’m not sure Lindor does get any time with the Indians this year. He’s barely 20 and has less than 100 PA in Double-A. No need to rush him.
Hi Zach, Please rank the following pitchers in a 12-team 5X5 keeper league: Smyly, Ventura, Kluber, Ross, Nova. Thanks for your advice.
Hi Zach, How would you rank the following sleepers: Mejia, Duffy, Carrasco, Burch Smith, Vizcaino? Thanks for your advice.
Hi Zach, Who do you see making the most impact in MLB this year: Kyle Zimmer, Eddie Butler, Andrew Heaney, or Marcus Stroman? Thanks for your advice.
Hi Zach, Who gets the bulk of saves for the Cubs this year? Thanks for your advice.
Hi Zach, Who (if any) of the following will outperform Welington Castillo (currently my backup C): Pinto, Avila, Norris, Grandal, Conger? Thanks for you advice.
Hi Zach, Do you think Kyle Parker or Ryan Wheeler get regular ABs for the Rockies this year? Thanks for your advice.
Hi Zach, Please rank the following OFs in a 12-team 5X5 keeper league: Calhoun, Lake, Dickerson, Pollock, Ozuna. Thanks for your advice.
Hi Zach, Do you think any of these OFs are surprisingly productive at the plate this year: Abraham Almonte, Choice, Lagares? Thanks for your advice.
Hi Zach, I’m in a quirky league that counts pinch hits. Do you see any guys (preferably NL) who 1) will be in the mix for pinch hit ABs and also 2) have some prospect/sleeper value? I’m looking at guys like Ryan Wheeler, Medica, Cesar Hernandez, Blanks, but would welcome any other suggestions. Thanks for all of your advice.
Sorry if I asked too many questions. I was keeping them in my head all day while waiting for my three-year-old to let me use a computer.
Thanks to everyone for stopping by today. Hopefully this helps get you ready for this weekend’s drafts.
Stayed tuned to RotoGraphs next week as the Roto Riteup will make its debut at some point!
4×4 keeper (BA,HR,RBI,SB) (W,S,ERA,WHIP). $260/23 player NL only. Who do u keep?
Hawkins $2, Lake $1 or Rendon $8? Thanks, Ed
I like Lake at $1 for his power/speed combo. Closers at $2 in NL only are tasty, but if only it were someone other than Hawkins!
Lake in this case.
Where can you find free Keeper Leagues? Yahoo seems to have none and I can’t really find any on ESPN and I don’t have the money for any money leagues.
Yahoo has free keeper leagues if you do it privately, but I’m not sure about their public leagues.
I’m late, I’m late for
A very important date.
No time to say hello, good-bye,
I’m late, I’m late, I’m late
Which side would you pick, with no players being keepable: Wright, Eaton and an 11th for next year for Bautista, Boegarts, and a 16th for next year.
Roto league. Already keeping Braun (25th round) and Chris Davis (13th round). At the same round cost (20th round) for either, would you rather keep Wil Myers or Starling Marte as the third keeper? Thanks!
this is my team is 5 sp and 2 rp max wanted to know where would i need some help this is points league and should i drop alex wood for chris archer or michel pineda or yordano ventura and should i pick up kelly johnson from waivers drop ben revere:
C Yan Gomes, Cle C
1B Joey Votto, Cin 1B
2B Kolten Wong, StL 2B
3B Manny Machado, Bal 3B
SS Everth Cabrera, SD SS
OF Ryan Braun, Mil OF
OF Jose Bautista, Tor OF
OF Matt Holliday, StL OF
UTIL David Ortiz, Bos DH
Bench Billy Hamilton, Cin OF
Bench Torii Hunter, Det OF
Bench Will Middlebrooks, Bos 3B
Bench Ben Revere, Phi OF
sp Madison Bumgarner, SF
sp Chris Sale, CWS
sp Alex Cobb, TB
sp Julio Teheran, Atl
sp Alex Wood, Atl
rp Ernesto Frieri, LAA
rp Aroldis Chapman, Cin