AL Starting Pitcher Z-Contact% Regressers

Last week, I discussed the American League starting pitchers that have improved their Z-Contact% the most. Let’s now check in on the pitchers whose Z-Contact% has risen the most.

Alex Cobb missed all of 2015 and the majority of 2016 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery and while his velocity has been fine, his Z-Contact% is sitting at a career worst mark. Oddly, he has counteracted the lack of misses inside the zone with a career best O-Contact%! I can’t explain that. His velocity being back is a good sign, but his changeup has generated the whiffs it has in the past. He’s not going to pitch a whole lot of innings, but he should be better moving forward despite the current ugly Z-Contact%.

Andrew Triggs was a popular sleeper pick this year and deservedly so, but his stuff hasn’t fooled as many this year. His fastball velocity is way down, dropping around two miles per hour, while both his slider (cutter) and changeup have been less whifferific. You wouldn’t know that he was struggling thanks to a .214 BABIP, but the hits are going to start falling unless the velocity picks up.

At age 33, Justin Verlander posted the highest strikeout rate of his career last season and his Z-Contact% was the second lowest of his career. This year he’s back to where he had been before, even with his fastball velocity up to its highest mark in years. Only his slider has generated a double digit SwStk%, compared to last year when his fastball and changeup also were in the low teens. Weirdly, he has yet to induce a pop-up after inducing 31 of them last year and almost one per game started through his career. He’s not the ideal buy low target.

I would guess that Jose Quintana’s 10 strikeout performance yesterday was fueled by some swings and misses on pitches inside the zone, so his Z-Contact% probably dropped closer to his 2016 mark. I’ve always been pessimistic here because he owns no standout pitches and his SwStk% were always below average. Heading into yesterday’s game, his pitches were more pathetic than ever, with his high SwStk% sitting at just 7.1% from his curve ball! I still don’t want to own him at his perceived value.

This is my comment on Phil Hughes.

Carlos Carrasco’s Z-Contact% stands at its highest since his 2009 debut. Like Cobb, he has offset the increase in in-zone whiffs by pushing his O-Contact% down to a career best mark. His fastball velocity is down a bit and there’s seemingly always concern of injury. But everything looks decent at the moment.

Derek Holland is doing the same as Cobb and Carrasco and he’s upped the usage of his excellent slider at the expense of his fastball. That’s a good pitch mix change, but he’s still unownable outside of AL-Only leagues due to his home park and middling, at best, skills.

There are all kinds of warning signs for Danny Duffy, as the velocity sits at a career low, his strike percentage has dropped back to his pre-2016 levels, and both his called and foul strikes induced have dropped to career lows. The one piece of good news is his swinging strike rate is at a career best. I loved Duffy last year when he enjoyed a velocity spike in the rotation and regularly hitting the upper 90s. His peak so far this year is just 95.5, which is equivalent to sub-95 adjusted for the new measuring type. He’s a clear sell high.

Jesse Hahn’s 2016 velocity spike has mostly been sustained, which is good news, and his SwStk% is up as a result, along with his strikeout rate. His curve has been amazing, generating a 24.6% SwStk%, which is even better than his surprise 2014 debut. The ground balls are gone though, so we’re left with an overall meh bundle of skills. He’s fine in deep mixed or AL-Only, but don’t let that shiny ERA fool you into thinking he’s a shallow mixed league option.