AL $1 Option: Nate Robertson
Last season was a year to forget for Tigers pitcher Nate Robertson. A sprained thumb suffered during Spring Training contributed to him opening the season in the bullpen, a place he was unfamiliar with having made starts in 163 of his previous 174 outings in the majors. His new role, along with more injuries, kept him under 50 innings pitched for the year. And when he did pitch the results were just not there. But last year’s troubles are why Robertson is an attractive end-game target for those in AL-only leagues this season.
In addition to the thumb injury, Robertson also suffered in 2009 from a lower back strain that landed him on the disabled list. And if that wasn’t enough, he had surgery to remove a mass from his left elbow that kept him out for 60 days. Robertson ended the 2009 campaign with inflammation on the left side of his pelvis. And in November he had surgery for a torn muscle in his groin.
And you thought you were happy to see 2010 come.
This year Robertson finds himself battling for a spot back in the rotation. He has had a strong Spring and thru games on Tuesday he leads the Tigers with 14.2 IP. Robertson has 2-0 record with a 3.68 ERA, with 6 BB and 14 Ks.
For the five seasons prior to 2009, Robertson averaged just under 31 starts per year for Detroit. His strong showing in Grapefruit League play should help him sew up a spot back in the rotation this year. In 2009, Robertson had a 3.86 ERA in six games as a starter and a 7.48 ERA in 22 games out of the pen.
In addition to pitching out of the pen, two other things stand out as outliers for Robertson last year. Historically a ground ball pitcher, he had a 0.99 GB/FB ratio last year. Also, Robertson usually has pretty solid control, but last year he had a 5.07 BB/9, nearly two full walks above his 3.24 career average.
Assuming Robertson reverts to throwing strikes and getting ground balls, he should be a fine $1 pitcher to target at the end of drafts. In addition to everything else that went wrong last year, he also had a .344 BABIP, 33 points above his career norm. Robertson does not need to make any improvements in his game, he just needs to be healthy and have a reasonable amount of luck to be a good addition to your fantasy team.
You forgot to mention his declining GB rates and the tragically low(lucky) HR/FB rate.
I did mention his GB rate and I hardly think one year qualifies as a trend. I’m more than happy to give him a normal HR/FB rate if he has a normal (for him) GB rate.
One year doesn’t qualify as a trend. Eight consecutive years he failed to reproduce the previous year’s GB rate…. that’s a trend. His GB rate is trending downwards, and his FB rate is trending upwards… With a HR/FB rate that’s due for some serious regression, that’s scary. The bad luck on Balls in Play is hope for improvement, but I would be more worried about the GB/FB rate as well as the HR/FB rate.
His skills are clearly declining, as evidenced by the low Zone% and drop in velocity on all 3 pitches (granted, the sprained thumb might have had something to do with that). But I digress.
While you have a case about the GB rate, I really think you are overstating it as three of those eight years were samples of under 50 IP and a fourth one the rate went up marginally.
To me, the question is how close he can get to his career rate of 47%
Nate Robertson?!?
Only once in his career has he had an ERA below 4 for a full season. This is the type of pitcher who does more damage to your ERA and WHIP than is worth the $1 spot. I’d rather take Matt Harrison at a buck instead.
In 2007 even with a 4.76 ERA he returned positive dollar value. Obviously I believe he can do better than that this season.
The downside here is much worse than whatever upside you might get. If you were to offer me a pitcher whose best season in the last three years was 9/4.76/1.47/119 two years ago for $1, I’d pass.
I like to divide $1 pitchers into two categories: consistent innings eaters that won’t absolutely kill you with their numbers, a la Doug Davis and Kyle Lohse. The other group being young rookie-type breakout candidates like, Harrison, Vin Mazzaro or Gio Gonzalez with a some amount of upside.
I don’t see Robertson fit in either category.
Well, I guess it’s all in how we define a $1 pitcher. I’m thinking of a 12-team only league and certainly #3 SP for their teams like Davis and Lohse will not go that cheaply in that format.
I wonder if either Harrison or Mazzaro will go for $1, either.
I agree that Gonzalez is interesting if he makes the rotation but talk about guys who could hurt your WHIP…
You might be right with Davis and Lohse, I’d have to check where I have them – my deep leagues they usually go pretty cheap.
With Gonzalez he has upside given his K rates which could offset that ugly WHIP, plus he’s 24 – but then again he could become Daniel Cabrera. Mazzaro is 23. The point is these guys have more potential upside, whereas I know what I’m getting with Robertson.
Reportedly Harrison was clocked at 97, and his last appearance struck out 8 in 4 innings. I’ll be keeping an eye on his next two appearances as he’s in the rotation to start the season.
I’ve been in a 12-team A.L.-only roto league, I don’t usually spend more than $70 on pitching and I usually target some $1 pitchers.
That said, Brian, with the greatest of respect, I think I am going to have nightmare that I have uttered in my auction “Nate Roberson $1” and am only met with silence.
Put aside Robertson’s ERA for a moment and look at his FIP — It’s NEVER been below 4.5 and he’s averaged 4.74. So the prospect of him returning to normalcy is frightening. His career Whip is 1.47 and he hasn’t bettered that mark since 2006, when he had a career-low BABIP.
In my league last year, the worst team ERA was 4.55 and the worst WHIP was 1.40. Why would I want starter who would drag down the ERA and WHIP of the worst pitching staff in our league? I’m sure the answer isn’t wins as Robertson averaged fewer than 10 his five healthy season. And if one is in a 5×5 league, Robertson has average 6 per 9 innings over his career, and while that’s not awful, it’s also nothing special, and certainly not enough to offset the damage he’d do to ERA and WHIP.
Who would I target as $1 pitchers? Two years ago I picked up Jeremy Guthrie, who flew under the radar because my co-owners were skeptical of his preceding good year because he hadn’t lived up to expectations in Cleveland. Last year I picked up Brian Matusz for $1 because I’m in a keeper league so I was looking a year ahead for one of my spots. As for this year:
Luke Hochevar – showed flashes of dominance, plays in a good pitcher’s park
Colby Lewis — he’s going for more than buck in many leagues but my co-owners may not know much about him.
Gio Gonzalez — had a better FIP in his first full season than Robertson’s best; makes bats miss and needs to improve his control. Also pitches in a good pitcher’s park.
Derek Holland — likely back in the minors but love his potential, some of which he showed last year. Stint in minors likely best for his development
There are others, of course, but the choices available to me are more limited because it’s a keeper league.
Maybe I’m missing something in your analysis. Can you explain how Robertson reverting back to form helps a roto team?