ADP Draft: Intro and Rounds One to Four

For the next few weeks or until any real news starts becoming available, I’m going to run a 14-team snake draft using today’s Average Draft Position (ADP) at FantasyPros. The ADP is available from six websites and their average. Simply enough, I gave each ranking two mirrored picks in a 14-team draft. Whichever site picked first got the 14th pick. When it came to each pick, I just took the highest-ranked player without regard to team construction. And here is the draft order:

Before I begin the process, I’m not sure at all what I hope to find. Maybe a site that values pitching more. Should owners go with the average or just go with NFBC where owners have more skin in the game? Are the drafters on some sites just drunk? Here are the results of first four rounds.

Note: Most of my ADP reference is from the NFBC because it’s available first in the offseason and I believe the owners research more since they have more skin in the game.

 

Here are my thoughts on the picks. These players are all good to great and it’s really tough to find fault or praise any of the picks.

Round 1

• The round went as I would expect. All the ADP’s have the same top-3 and ESPN is the only one that didn’t have Bellinger at #4.

• The only pick I might quibble on is Scherzer at 14 since I like Verlander and Buehler more than him.

Round 2

• I’m a little surprised Jose Ramirez fell to the 20th pick but that is where he was going earlier in NFBC this offseason. Maybe the non-NFBC sites are still feeling the pull of recency bias from last season when Ramirez struggled to start the season.

• The drafters at CBS have pushed up Strasburg ahead of Flaherty, Bieber, and Clevinger. I’d draft any of the three ahead of Strasburg as I’ve previously written.

• I just don’t understand how Pete Alonso is still going in the first 30 picks. His exact skill set can be found with other hitters going several rounds later.

Round 3

• With the picks of Corbin and Snell, Fantrax took four pitchers in their first six picks. I’m not going to call it a trend just yet, but it’s interesting.

• ESPN reaches for Anthony Rizzo as the 38th overall pick. The rest of the sources have him with an ADP range from 50 to 66. One possible explanation is that ESPN’s ADP may be more in line with point leagues. We’ll eventually find out.

Round 4 Remarks

• Again, the results are a little boring/expected.

• Mondesi goes off the board by the NFBC. Since the NFBC  is almost exclusively 5×5 Roto leagues using batting average.

• Hader becomes the first reliever off the board.