ADP Battle Royale: Shortstop
Over the last few years the industry has begun to focus on NFBC leagues more and more. It is not because it is the most popular format in spite of its growth. It is because, on average, it has more competitive leagues due to the cost involved. This allows for a better average draft position. While ADP is not the end all be all, it can give us some insight into the market and if you have competing markets, it is good to compare them and see what information can be exploited. In this series of articles, I will look at the places where NFBC ADP is higher than the four other major platforms in an attempt to point out potential deals for those of you not playing on NFBC.
NFBC Versus ESPN
Trea Turner (NFBC ADP: 1.4, ESPN ADP: 13.2)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.
Tim Anderson (35.12, 120.9)- This is another amazing deal over on ESPN when Anderson is going in the second or third round of leagues in the industry and on NFBC.
Trevor Story (36.02, 112.4)- I understand with Story’s lack of home and disappointing end to 2021 him falling, but this is a bit extreme. There really isn’t a spot he could land where I would think this price wouldn’t still be a steal.
Bobby Witt Jr. (89.83, 212.8)- I think Witt’s price in NFBC is extreme, but this is on the complete other end of the spectrum. The truth is likely in the middle somewhere.
Javy Baez (63.52, 167.5)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.
Jazz Chisholm (72.62, 229.5)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.
Amed Rosario (148.2, 236)- Rosario is one of the guys that gets pushed down on other sites because so much of the ADP is catering to points leagues where he speed is less valuable. This presents a buying opportunity for getting really cheap speed when you wouldn’t have the chance in more competitive leagues.
Luis Urias (153.54, 206.8)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.
Willy Adames (166.49, 239.2)- This is another one I don’t really understand. Once he was traded to Milwaukee, Adames was fantastic and offers power and speed with enough average to not hurt you. He shouldn’t be outside the top 200 picks.
Brendan Rodgers (172.02, 234.1)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.
Dansby Swanson (123.56, 174.6)- I have been the anti-Swanson guy in the industry for a long time, but I am actually ok with his NFBC price this season which means I love his price on ESPN.
Chris Taylor (139.15, 193.8)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.
O’Neil Cruz (205.86, 259.1)- I love Cruz, but considering we don’t know when he will be up and he is on the Pirates, I am not surprised by the disrespect. I would be stoked to get him at this price though as he is one of my most drafted players already this year on NFBC.
NFBC Versus Yahoo
Bobby Witt Jr. (NFBC ADP: 89.83, Yahoo ADP: 212.8)- See Above.
Amed Rosario (148.2, 244.8)- See Above.
Luis Urias (153.54, 249.8)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.
NFBC Versus CBS
Amed Rosario (NFBC ADP: 148.2, CBS ADP: 265)- See Above.
Nicky Lopez (236.96, 298.25)- I think that Lopez is penalized from the points league formats on CBS because while I think many people expect him to regress in 2022, an almost 300 ADP is way too low for a guy with his speed and contact skills.
Andres Gimenez (236.38, 317)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.
Josh Rojas (225.73, 286)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.
NFBC Versus Fantrax
Andres Gimienez (NFBC ADP: 236.38, Fantrax ADP: 331.08)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.
Jonathan Villar- (266.71, 326.31)- I would expect Villar’s price to rise quite a bit on both site once we know where he is landing and the role he will have.
Amed Rosario (148.2, 202.17)- See Above.
Gio Urshela (278.93, 319.09)- Urshela is a good price on NFBC, so that means I like him a lot on Fantrax and even more on a place like Yahoo, where he is being undrafted this season.
| NFBC | Player | Team | Position(s) | ESPN | Yahoo | CBS | Fantrax |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4 | Trea Turner | LAD | 2B, SS | 13.2 | 2.5 | 5.17 | 3.37 |
| 2.48 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | SS, OF | 5.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.24 |
| 5.13 | Bo Bichette | TOR | SS | 27.4 | 6.9 | 10.17 | 7.65 |
| 35.12 | Tim Anderson | CWS | SS | 120.9 | 32.1 | 40.67 | 55.71 |
| 36.02 | Trevor Story | COL | SS | 112.4 | 41.6 | 40.5 | 49.79 |
| 42.43 | Marcus Semien | TEX | 2B, SS | 38.8 | 33.5 | 54.67 | 32.63 |
| 47.87 | Xander Bogaerts | BOS | SS | 42.5 | 28.4 | 36.83 | 44.49 |
| 50.29 | Francisco Lindor | NYM | SS | 60.2 | 43 | 41.5 | 59.21 |
| 56.48 | Wander Franco | TB | SS | 28.4 | 44.4 | 61.33 | 43.54 |
| 63.52 | Javier Baez | DET | 2B, SS | 167.5 | 63.3 | 80.67 | 83.35 |
| 72.62 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | MIA | 2B, SS | 229.5 | 87.3 | 103.17 | 97.96 |
| 83.35 | Jorge Polanco | MIN | 2B, SS | 84.3 | 100.4 | 102.67 | 90.91 |
| 87.89 | Corey Seager | TEX | SS | 46.7 | 65.9 | 41.5 | 68.81 |
| 89.83 | Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | SS | 212.8 | 221.5 | 80.4 | 109.38 |
| 108.02 | Carlos Correa | HOU | SS | 70.3 | 74.9 | 78.5 | 85.09 |
| 123.56 | Dansby Swanson | ATL | SS | 174.6 | 132.1 | 116.67 | 130.65 |
| 123.93 | Jake Cronenworth | SD | 1B, 2B, SS | 83.9 | 126.1 | 145.33 | 123.63 |
| 129.36 | Willy Adames | MLW | SS | 236 | 171.4 | 140.67 | 136.94 |
| 139.15 | Chris Taylor | LAD | 2B, SS, OF | 193.8 | 132.1 | 178.17 | 151.08 |
| 143.01 | Gleyber Torres | NYY | SS | 157.2 | 177.4 | 138.17 | 157.68 |
| 148.2 | Amed Rosario | CLE | SS | 255.1 | 244.8 | 265 | 202.17 |
| 153.54 | Luis Urias | MLW | 2B, 3B, SS | 206.8 | 249.8 | 197.17 | 182.96 |
| 172.02 | Brendan Rodgers | COL | 2B, SS | 234.1 | 217.9 | 185.83 | 168.28 |
| 205.86 | Oneil Cruz | PIT | SS | 259.1 | 244 | 206.83 | 219.65 |
| 211.69 | Eugenio Suarez | CIN | 3B, SS | 244 | 163.6 | 197.83 | 193.08 |
| 212.02 | Brandon Crawford | SF | SS | 227.8 | 217.3 | 224.5 | 210.65 |
| 225.73 | Josh Rojas | ARZ | 2B, SS, OF | 215.6 | 251.5 | 286 | 245.72 |
| 229.83 | Gavin Lux | LAD | 2B, SS | 258.3 | 251 | 222.8 | 216.36 |
| 236.38 | Andres Gimenez | CLE | 2B, SS | 259.8 | 244.8 | 317 | 311.08 |
| 236.96 | Nicky Lopez | KC | SS | 259.2 | 240.4 | 298.25 | 274.27 |
| 266.71 | Jonathan Villar | NYM | 3B, SS | 260 | 245.7 | 312.5 | 326.31 |
| 278.93 | Gio Urshela | NYY | 3B, SS | 249.6 | — | 223.67 | 319.09 |
| 309.83 | J.P. Crawford | SEA | SS | 245 | 234.3 | 324.67 | 293.94 |
| 320.82 | Miguel Rojas | MIA | SS | — | — | 343 | 344.5 |
| 326.93 | David Fletcher | LAA | 2B, SS | 217.5 | 251 | 315 | 319.66 |
| 349.35 | Joey Wendle | MIA | 3B, SS | 259.9 | 243.7 | — | 354.81 |
| 352.26 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | TEX | SS | 259.7 | — | 343.33 | 302.77 |
| 352.48 | Ha-Seong Kim | SD | 2B, 3B, SS | 259.6 | — | 378.33 | 378.9 |
| 367.29 | Jose Barrero | CIN | SS | 259.9 | 246 | 362.5 | — |
| 400.98 | Edmundo Sosa | STL | 2B, SS | 259.8 | — | — | 440.65 |
| 416.32 | Ramon Urias | BAL | 2B, SS | — | — | — | 407.51 |
| 417.07 | Didi Gregorius | PHI | SS | 258.7 | 177.4 | 256.67 | 371.92 |
| 418.08 | Paul DeJong | STL | SS | 259.7 | 240.6 | 364.67 | 401.39 |
| 422.83 | Bryson Stott | PHI | SS | 260 | 130.3 | 331 | 452.89 |
| 425.01 | Tyler Wade | LAA | 3B, SS, OF | 259.6 | — | — | 516.75 |
| 443.39 | Jeremy Pena | HOU | SS | — | — | 431 | 462.84 |
| 475.24 | Kyle Farmer | CIN | SS | — | — | — | 430.68 |
| 503.19 | Nick Ahmed | ARZ | SS | — | — | — | 489.26 |
| 504.17 | Willi Castro | DET | 2B, SS | 260 | — | 404.5 | 493.19 |
| 507.1 | Elvis Andrus | OAK | SS | — | — | — | 493.7 |
| 549.99 | Taylor Walls | TB | SS | 259.9 | — | — | 852.37 |
| 566.55 | Niko Goodrum | DET | SS | — | — | — | 552.81 |
| 575.32 | Jose Iglesias | BOS | SS | — | — | — | 556.37 |
| 577.12 | Cole Tucker | PIT | SS | 259.9 | 240.1 | — | 68.81 |
| 579.94 | Alcides Escobar | WAS | SS | — | 248.9 | — | 563.61 |
| 600.73 | Kevin Newman | PIT | SS | 259.8 | — | — | 609.09 |
| 614.12 | CJ Abrams | SD | SS | 259.9 | 238.2 | 99 | 478.4 |
| 631.45 | Mauricio Dubon | SF | 2B, SS, OF | 259.8 | — | — | 615.06 |
| 646.95 | Andrelton Simmons | MIN | SS | 260 | 245.4 | — | 625.12 |
| 662.42 | Geraldo Perdomo | ARZ | SS | 260 | — | — | 598.05 |
| 695.19 | Thairo Estrada | SF | SS | 259.9 | — | — | 573.98 |
| 709.83 | Royce Lewis | MIN | SS | 259.9 | — | 331.5 | 551.78 |
| 714.27 | Jeter Downs | BOS | SS | 260 | — | — | 646.01 |
| 721.93 | Luis Rengifo | LAA | SS | 260 | 235.9 | 452 | 789.2 |
| 727.36 | Harold Castro | DET | 2B, SS | 259.9 | — | — | 706.45 |
| 731.23 | Oswald Peraza | NYY | SS | 259.9 | — | 352 | 696.04 |
| 733.77 | Jordan Groshans | TOR | SS | 259.9 | — | — | 565.96 |
| 740.07 | Sergio Alcantara | CHC | 2B, SS | 260 | — | — | — |
| 746.15 | Gabriel Arias | CLE | SS | 260 | — | — | 799.13 |
| 748.61 | Anthony Volpe | FA | SS | 259.9 | 6.9 | 139.5 | 587.73 |
| 748.89 | Ronald Torreyes | PHI | 3B, SS | 260 | — | — | 963.34 |
| 749.77 | Ryan Kreidler | FA | SS | 260 | — | — | 1027.6 |
| 749.89 | Nick Maton | PHI | 2B, SS | 260 | — | — | 973.2 |
| 750.12 | Andrew Velazquez | LAA | SS | 260 | 238.4 | — | 1251.5 |
| 750.64 | Dee Strange-Gordon | MLW | SS | 259.9 | 246 | — | — |
| 750.65 | Danny Mendick | CWS | 2B, SS | 260 | 1.2 | — | 1062.15 |
| 750.89 | Jonathan Arauz | BOS | SS | 260 | — | — | 1194.7 |
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
I actually feel like ESPN’s ADP is pretty good for their own site.
For every player you mention, the answer is always either “ESPN points devalues SB” or “ESPN points penalizes SO.”
Using NFBC ADP when you’re doing an ESPN points league seems even less helpful than just relying on ESPN’s ADP.
The obvious exception is if your ESPN league happens to be a 15-team roto league, I guess.
ESPN hasn’t used the same lists for points and roto in the past. Right now they’re the same, which is insane. I’ve been primarily using ESPN for 15+ years and I’ve never seen this sort of disparity between their roto rankings and other sites. They’re doing it differently this year.
You may be right about past years, but my memory is that in previous years ESPN’s ADP would fall somewhere in between points and roto.
This year it seems 100% directed at their points leagues.
I believe they used entirely separate lists. You can look at their ADP from last year here: https://web.archive.org/web/20210223165317/https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/overall.php
Some rankings are off from the rest of course but nothing crazy and players like Turner are right in line with the others. If they were incorporating points leagues at all, SB-first players like Turner, Marte and Merrifield would take a huge hit and SPs would take a huge jump. Those are happening this year but they weren’t at all last year.
That ADP you found for 2021 is what I remembered–but with a different interpretation than you, I guess. 🙂
For 2021, I see: Mondesi is much lower than everywhere else. (You’re right that other speedsters aren’t far off, though.) Muncy, Rizzo, Brantley, Santana are much higher than everywhere else.
Maybe I shouldn’t say it was “in between points and roto.” Nudged toward points? But it was the same list used for both league types.
This year is certainly more extreme towards points leagues. We agree there.