Adam LaRoche Heads to Windy City

Yesterday, Adam LaRoche signed with the Chicago White Sox and figures to serve as the team’s primary designated hitter with Jose Abreu entrenched at first base. Though manager Robin Ventura did say that LaRoche would play about two games a week in the field. That’s a good thing for his offensive output, as the DH penalty has been found to cost a hitter about 17 points of wOBA. So perhaps it won’t be as drastic if he still sees the field every so often. Let’s take a look how the park and team switch may affect him.

We begin by comparing the relevant left-handed hitter park factors for Nationals Park and U.S. Cellular Field:

Immediately we find that our perception of the two parks is confirmed by the park factors. However, we’re less familiar with the effect a park has on the lonely single. And here, we find that LaRoche has played in a park that has inflated single totals by 8% since 2012 (remember, the factors listed are already halved to account for the actual number of home games). That should equate to a boost in BABIP, though it’s hard to believe that LaRoche has actually benefited. He has posted BABIP marks of just .298, .277 and .277 over those three years. While his batted ball distribution suggests better fortune moving forward, it could be offset by a less favorable home park for singles.

LaRoche has hit just 38 doubles over the last two years, which is only three more than he hit in 2012 alone. It’s a rather significant dropoff considering he had consistently posted doubles totals in the mid-to-high 30s previously. Once again, we see that Nationals Park actually increased doubles, but this time The Cell does as well, just not to the same degree. Simply based on positive regression alone, I would expect a bunch more doubles this year, but it certainly won’t be because of the new park.

Could you believe that LaRoche managed to hit three triples in 2013? He has even stolen seven bases these past two seasons! Who knew he had been hiding some speed in those legs all along? Perhaps the less unfavorable triples environment will get him back into the three-bagger groove.

Finally, we get to the most important factor of them all to fantasy owners — the one about the homers. Though not as favorable as it is to right-handers, The Cell still remains a pretty good place to hit the long ball if you’re a left-handed hitter. On the other hand, Nationals Park was quite unkind to those hitters when it came to allowing balls to leave the yard. LaRoche posted a batted ball distance of 290 feet this year, good for 56th in baseball, so he clearly still possesses excellent power. All else being equal, this is a fantastic move for his power potential.

Surprisingly, there is quite a dramatic difference between the strikeout and walk factors in the two parks. Nationals Park suppresses both, while The Cell augments both. And look at that walk factor! That was easily the highest in baseball. While walks don’t technically count in standard 5×5 fantasy leagues, they actually do so indirectly by increasing runs scored opportunities. LaRoche has shown excellent patience since 2011 and he should be able to maintain a similar mark, if not better, due to the park switch. He gets a big boost in OBP leagues versus AVG leagues.

Overall, Nationals Park is perfectly neutral, while The Cell inflates offense by 8%. Since fantasy owners care about home runs most, then the park switch is a clear positive.

But what about the new team? The Nationals rank third in the National League in runs scored and ninth in baseball. The White Sox, even with the benefit of the designated hitter, ranked 13th in runs scored in baseball and eighth in the AL. In other words, the Nationals had one of the best offenses in the NL, while the White Sox trotted out a thoroughly mediocre one. But, since the Nationals’ run total included LaRoche and the Sox will be getting him, suddenly the offenses are actually quite similar. So the move to the new offense should have any major effect on his runs batted in and scored totals.

Through all this, I have concluded that the park switch is a net positive, while the team switch will have minimal effect. Unfortunately, three issues could affect his fantasy earnings next year. First, he’s 35 years old, so betting on a hitter at that age to continue producing at the same level he had been is more times than not a losing proposition. Second, when the Sox play in NL parks, he’s going to find himself on the bench as Abreu mans first base. That’s going to cut into his at-bat total. Third, he has has severe problems facing southpaws in the last two years, posting wOBA marks of .280 and .253 in 2014 and 2013, respectively, against them. He could become a straight platoon player, only starting against righties, which would further cut his playing time. And since he’ll mostly play DH, the Sox could start anyone in his place.

So yes, the park switch is a good one for LaRoche, but given all the other potential problems I highlighted, it’s hard to imagine him earning similar fantasy value next year as he did this season.