A Shortcut for Projecting Pitchers ROS

by
June 22, 2016

The summer is heating up which means the standings are starting to solidify in your league. Big trades are going down and you find yourself uncharacteristically indecisive – do I make this deal or not? Will it actually improve my team enough to matter?

Trade and player evaluation can take time, as can league-specific scoring calculations, so thankfully for those playing Ottoneu I’ll share a quick shortcut to projecting pitchers for the rest of the season. Since Home Runs Allowed are the plague in Ottoneu points leagues that are founded on linear weights, they play a critical role in evaluating any pitcher over the course of the next few months.  In addition, you’ll need to account for strikeouts and walks, which are the primary indicators of pitcher’s skill readily available.  Using just these three quick stats you can get an estimated value of pitchers for the rest of the season.

Here’s the shortcut calculation: K’s – BB’s – HRA’s

Using Depth Charts ROS season projections, I’ve listed the Top 100 pitchers ROS based upon this shortcut formula, and compared it to the true calculation of scoring projections for each pitcher in both points formats (FGPTS and SABR).

Top 100 SP ROS
Name Team IP SO-BB-HR RANK FGPTS RANK SABR RANK playerid
1 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 125 128 1 841 1 772 1 2036
2 Max Scherzer Nationals 126 112 2 729 2 680 2 3137
3 Chris Sale White Sox 128 106 3 704 3 670 3 10603
4 Noah Syndergaard Mets 114 98 4 669 7 630 7 11762
5 David Price Red Sox 131 94 5 672 5 662 4 3184
6 Jose Fernandez Marlins 98 91 6 610 11 567 14 11530
7 Corey Kluber Indians 123 91 6 671 6 649 5 2429
8 Stephen Strasburg Nationals 104 89 8 596 14 563 17 10131
9 Madison Bumgarner Giants 120 88 9 663 8 627 8 5524
10 Jake Arrieta Cubs 119 86 10 688 4 644 6 4153
11 Jon Lester Cubs 120 83 11 639 10 616 10 4930
12 Carlos Carrasco Indians 108 77 12 566 18 546 22 6632
13 Jacob deGrom Mets 115 76 13 607 12 587 11 10954
14 Zack Greinke Diamondbacks 117 72 14 599 13 583 12 1943
15 Johnny Cueto Giants 123 70 15 653 9 627 8 6893
16 Chris Archer Rays 111 69 16 555 19 533 24 6345
17 Matt Harvey Mets 116 68 17 583 15 567 14 11713
18 Gerrit Cole Pirates 113 65 18 573 17 566 16 13125
19 Jose Quintana White Sox 115 64 19 547 21 554 20 11423
20 Jeff Samardzija Giants 112 62 20 551 20 548 21 3254
21 Danny Salazar Indians 93 62 20 472 36 447 45 5867
22 Dallas Keuchel Astros 119 61 22 579 16 575 13 9434
23 Justin Verlander Tigers 116 61 22 533 22 526 25 8700
24 Aaron Nola Phillies 97 59 24 463 39 459 39 16149
25 John Lackey Cubs 102 59 24 493 31 482 33 1507
26 Masahiro Tanaka Yankees 106 58 26 483 34 482 33 15764
27 Julio Teheran Braves 116 58 26 505 29 497 29 6797
28 Kenta Maeda Dodgers 99 57 28 485 33 474 36 18498
29 Steven Matz Mets 92 56 29 468 37 457 41 13361
30 Michael Pineda Yankees 85 56 29 401 62 400 62 5372
31 Cole Hamels Rangers 117 56 29 509 27 507 28 4972
32 Drew Pomeranz Padres 93 55 32 464 38 437 47 11426
33 Carlos Martinez Cardinals 99 53 33 493 30 490 30 11682
34 Francisco Liriano Pirates 102 52 34 490 32 470 37 3201
35 Yu Darvish Rangers 72 51 35 369 77 347 98 13074
36 Wei-Yin Chen Marlins 108 51 35 478 35 486 31 13071
37 Jon Gray Rockies 97 51 35 424 50 433 48 14916
38 Collin McHugh Astros 103 51 35 454 43 458 40 7531
39 Hisashi Iwakuma Mariners 102 51 35 444 46 450 42 13048
40 Adam Wainwright Cardinals 108 50 40 509 28 516 27 2233
41 Sonny Gray Athletics 117 50 40 531 24 526 25 12768
42 Matt Shoemaker Angels 89 50 40 406 59 403 56 4776
43 Drew Smyly Rays 80 50 40 372 75 357 88 11760
44 Vincent Velasquez Phillies 78 49 44 367 79 347 98 11189
45 Scott Kazmir Dodgers 88 49 44 415 55 402 58 4897
46 Felix Hernandez Mariners 83 48 46 410 57 400 62 4772
47 Gio Gonzalez Nationals 95 48 46 453 44 448 43 7448
48 Jake Odorizzi Rays 91 48 46 412 56 402 58 6397
49 Taijuan Walker Mariners 94 48 46 398 63 397 68 11836
50 Andrew Miller Yankees 37 47 50 324 111 293 143 6785
51 Rich Hill Athletics 92 47 50 448 45 424 52 4806
52 Carlos Rodon White Sox 93 46 52 408 58 398 66 16137
53 Lance McCullers Astros 88 45 53 419 52 402 58 14120
54 Kevin Gausman Orioles 102 45 53 419 51 425 51 14107
55 Marcus Stroman Blue Jays 105 44 55 461 40 475 35 13431
56 Tim Lincecum 140 44 55 532 23 545 23 5705
57 Ian Kennedy Royals 107 44 55 396 65 400 62 6986
58 Michael Wacha Cardinals 98 43 58 436 47 433 48 14078
59 Rick Porcello Red Sox 91 43 58 392 68 411 55 2717
60 Patrick Corbin Diamondbacks 102 43 58 433 48 446 46 9323
61 Nate Karns Mariners 91 43 58 393 66 383 72 12638
62 Dellin Betances Yankees 37 42 62 291 147 260 181 6216
63 Robbie Ray Diamondbacks 86 42 62 386 71 379 74 11486
64 Jordan Zimmermann Tigers 108 42 62 428 49 448 43 4505
65 Anthony DeSclafani Reds 99 41 65 417 54 426 50 13050
66 Jeremy Hellickson Phillies 88 40 66 338 95 352 93 4371
67 James Shields White Sox 105 40 66 393 67 401 61 7059
68 Kyle Hendricks Cubs 81 39 68 375 73 375 76 12049
69 James Paxton Mariners 83 39 68 380 72 375 76 11828
70 Mike Fiers Astros 89 39 68 354 87 355 91 7754
71 Chris Tillman Orioles 109 39 68 417 53 420 53 5279
72 Kenley Jansen Dodgers 36 38 72 360 81 339 103 3096
73 Nathan Eovaldi Yankees 86 38 72 356 85 371 80 9132
74 Jason Hammel Cubs 74 37 74 326 107 324 114 4538
75 Mike Leake Cardinals 114 37 74 458 41 485 32 10130
76 Josh Tomlin Indians 81 37 74 304 134 324 114 9388
77 Hector Santiago Angels 104 37 74 405 60 398 66 4026
78 Marco Estrada Blue Jays 108 37 74 401 61 390 70 1118
79 Kyle Lohse 161 37 74 518 25 559 18 739
80 Tyson Ross Padres 66 36 80 340 93 332 108 7872
81 Josh Johnson 82 36 80 356 84 358 86 4567
82 Ricky Nolasco Twins 79 36 80 315 122 339 103 3830
83 Junior Guerra Brewers 72 36 80 309 129 304 135 5702
84 Jimmy Nelson Brewers 98 36 80 396 64 403 56 10547
85 Craig Kimbrel Red Sox 37 35 85 344 92 321 118 6655
86 Michael Fulmer Tigers 85 35 85 332 102 344 100 13218
87 Ervin Santana Twins 106 35 85 387 70 414 54 3200
88 Danny Duffy Royals 73 34 88 322 116 309 128 3542
89 Jerad Eickhoff Phillies 79 34 88 314 124 317 122 12664
90 Aroldis Chapman Yankees 31 33 90 308 130 283 155 10233
91 Alex Wood Dodgers 62 33 90 293 145 291 146 13781
92 Chad Bettis Rockies 89 33 90 339 94 362 84 10587
93 Matt Wisler Braves 97 33 90 348 90 368 82 12804
94 Dan Straily Reds 80 33 90 292 146 294 142 9460
95 Jake Peavy Giants 82 32 95 350 89 352 93 1051
96 Yordano Ventura Royals 86 32 95 358 82 361 85 11855
97 CC Sabathia Yankees 87 32 95 334 100 349 97 404
98 Matt Moore Rays 75 32 95 303 136 301 140 1890
99 Aaron Harang 166 32 95 511 26 555 19 1451
100 Andrew Cashner Padres 88 31 100 360 80 374 78 8782

As you can see, the rankings ROS look fairly similar, but be reminded we’re just using a quick shortcut to estimate expect value.  Hopefully this handy shortcut will help you as you made key rotation decisions this summer.  We can discuss the differences in these pitcher rankings (and value of the shortcut) in the comments.

 

 

 





 

Trey is a 20+ year fantasy veteran and an early adopter of Ottoneu fantasy sports. He currently administers the Ottoneu community, a network of ~1,200 fantasy baseball and football fans talking sports daily. More resources here: http://community.ottoneu.com

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OddBall Herrera
8 years ago

Shame on all of those with lower expected value than Josh Johnson

0
Trey Baughn
8 years ago
Reply to  OddBall Herrera

JJ is a true sleeper. Tim Lincecum might actually be the biggest surprise considering the difference in ranking between the shortcut method and actual scoring calculations…but that looks entirely driven by his 140 ROS projected IP for some reason…

0
Avi24
8 years ago
Reply to  Trey Baughn

Somehow Buehrle was not on this list, yet the others were included. Very puzzled.

0
Nelson S.
8 years ago
Reply to  OddBall Herrera

Like poor Joe Ross, whos below Aaron Harang even. Harang!

1