9 Stolen Base Targets

Though it feels like the end of the season is actually closer (maybe it’s just me), we still have about a quarter of games left to play. If you haven’t already been doing so, now is definitely the time to start focusing entirely on the individual category standings. Forget about overall fantasy value and worry about how many points you could realistically gain and lose in each statistic. Have a surplus of home runs and limited downside, but could gain a handful of stolen base points? Let’s discuss nine targets that are a mix of projected rest of season stolen base leaders and strong PA/SB ratios that could potentially be bigger contributors with more playing time.

I’m going to be annoyed at myself for the rest of the season for somehow not rostering Chandler Simpson before his recall. I just didn’t think he would prove to be strong enough offensively to warrant an MLB promotion, let alone be handed a regular job in Tampa Bay. Whoops. He ranks fourth in all of baseball in steals with 32 and has done that with the fewest number of plate appearances inside the top 30.

As a result, all fantasy owners likely know his name, but he’s shockingly owned in just 60% of CBS leagues. So that means in 40% of leagues, stolen base points are free for the taking. If he’s already rostered, it’s likely his team is toward the top of the stolen base standings and might be willing to trade him away. With his single digit strikeout rate, he’s also a batting average contributor, so he’s a near lock for two category contributions, while runs scored he’ll likely be close to neutral. Obviously, he’s going to hurt in home runs in RBI given the lack of production there. I’m very nervous about valuing him next year given my historical penchant for calling out high steals guys as undervalued and taking them earlier than most would consider!

José Caballero’s expecting playing time took a big hit when he was traded to the Yankees. Incredibly, he actually led baseball in steals and recorded just 18 more PAs than Simpson. Now the projections are forecasting just 41 PAs over the rest of the season, which may have led to him getting dropped in many leagues. He’ll now need an injury ahead of him to boost that playing time forecast, but he’s still projected for four steals in such limited playing time. He does nothing else though, so this is strictly a stolen base play if a handful is going to make a difference in your standings.

After an incredible run after joining the Mariners last year, Victor Robles has been on the IL nearly all season, last playing all the way back in early April. But he’s finally on the way back as he figures to start a rehab assignment soon. He’ll likely push Dominic Canzone to the bench, though he’s hit pretty well himself.

The former top prospect (he was the fifth best prospect in baseball in 2019!) has been a disappointment offensively for the majority of his career, but last year’s half season performance in Seattle made many people believe that a breakout is finally upon us. Personally, it just looks like a bunch of BABIP luck to me. However, he did steal 30 bases, while getting caught just once. So ignoring his BABIP for a moment, the fact that he suddenly ran wild was a really good sign for his future fantasy value. He still owns little power and isn’t going to hit .300 again, but he was on a 60+ steal pace last year, so he has to be monitored given the chance his running game continues.

Silly me for thinking that Victor Scott II’s excellent spring training plate discipline numbers (walk and strikeout rates), along with huge power he had never shown anything close to before, was the first sign of an impending breakout. Instead, he continues to strike out far too often and his power hasn’t improved at all. That said, he’s still managed to steal 29 bases, which is tied for ninth in baseball.

The problem here is that he has been brutal against lefties, and of course it’s not like he’s been any good against righties. It’s led to a loss of playing time and frankly I’m surprised it took this long. It makes it unlikely he’ll record anywhere close to those 160 projected rest of season plate appearances, meaning 11 steals might be difficult to attain as well. That said, he’s still starting here and there and given that he’s been caught stealing just twice this year, should keep running when he gets on base. Hitting at the bottom of the order though won’t help him contribute in any of the other categories though.

Jakob Marsee was recently recalled by the Marlins and the 24-year-old non-prospect has already been a fantasy force. He’s shown excellent plate discipline throughout his minor league career and it’s already carried over to the Majors. That should keep his OBP respectable, at the very least, resulting in more than enough stolen base opportunities.

He stole 47 bases at Triple-A this year and already has five with the Marlins, getting caught once. Obviously, he’s not going to hit over .400. Heck, the projections don’t think he’ll help your average at all. Even though he doesn’t strike out at an inordinate rate, the problem here has been a poor BABIP historically. He posted just a .282 mark at Triple-A this season and a .237 mark at Double-A last year. BABIP is a skill, even though there’s a luck factor at play as well. Of course, anything could happen over a relatively small sample size, meaning I’d just ignore Marsee’s potential to actually harm your batting average and bet on the steals.

I’ve always liked Sam Haggerty as a potential fantasy asset, but he’s just rarely been given extended playing time. Now with the Rangers, he’s on the weak side of a platoon, so once again his playing time is going to be limited. But man, he’s essentially played a full season in the Majors and has stolen 44 bases with just seven caught stealings.

He’s exactly the kind of guy who if he ever became a regular, it would immediately make him worthy of rostering in deeper mixed leagues, in addition to AL-Only leagues, of course. That’s likely not going to happen at this point at age 31, but one could dream. He’s even hit 11 home runs in his MLB career, so he’s not a zero in power either, and sports a decent enough .318 OBP so in those formats, he won’t hurt your in that category.

Jacob Young seemingly came out of nowhere last year to swipe 33 bases and find himself on many mixed league rosters. But he also posted just a .290 wOBA, meaning his playing time would likely be at risk if his offense didn’t improve. This year, he missed a couple of weeks due to injury, but is back in the starting lineup and playing regularly.

His stolen base pace has really slowed down, though, as he’s swiped just 11 bases in more than half the plate appearances. One of the drivers is a massive decline in success rate, as he’s already been caught as many times as he was all of last year. On the positive side, he’s reduced his strikeout rate, so if his BABIP improves, and his wOBA jumps to meet his xwOBA, he’ll end up with more stolen base opportunities than he has had given the sub-.300 OBP.

After 28 games at Triple-A, Hyeseong Kim finally got recalled to the Majors, and he’s been a pretty strong fantasy contributor. He figures to return soon from the IL, but as usual on a stacked Dodgers team, playing time could be tough to come by.

So far, Kim’s production has been inflated by a .426 BABIP, which obviously isn’t sustainable. A drop there is going to cut into his stolen base opportunities, but even with a low projected PA total and a meaningfully lower forecasted OBP, he still figures to steal a bunch of bases before the end of the season.

It’s funny that every year, Taylor Walls finds himself playing regularly at some point, before he settles back into a reserve role. Though he’s already recorded 317 PAs and figures to earn the second most PAs of his career this year, he’s not going to play nearly as often the rest of the way now that Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 is back and starting most days at shortstop.

I’ve always liked the skills here and am baffled why he hasn’t hit better. Double digit walk rates every year, SwStk% hovering right around 10%, and excellent speed should result in much better production than what he’s delivered. Even with the weak OBP, he still steals bases, and he’s on pace for around 28 steals if we were to double his current PAs to a full season. That’ll work in deep league, given that he’s also a non-zero in the other counting stats. Of course, you’ll have to accept the low batting average, as his BABIP has been poor every season since 2022.