6 AL Starting Pitchers Throwing Softer

A week ago, I discussed six American League starting pitchers with the largest increases in fastball velocity from April to May. Today, I’ll check in on seven AL starters who have suffered through a decline in fastball velocity. But since we’re 2 1/2 weeks into June, I’m now comparing May velocity to June velocity. Since velocity stabilizes rather quickly, then the three starts or so in June should be enough to analyze the data.

Now isn’t this funny. Jered Weaver sat second on my list of fastball increasers, jumping from 83.1 mph in April to 84.9 mph in May. But now in June, his velocity is back below 84 mph (not sure why my May number now shows 84.8). And whattya know, his ERAs in April and June when his velocity sat below 84 mph were 5.83 and 6.64, respectively, while his May ERA when his velocity rebounded a bit was at 2.83. And the skills backed up those performances as well, as his xFIP and strikeout rate were best in May. As crazy as it might sound (is it?), if he were dropped in AL Tout, I’m not sure I would even place a FAAB bid.

Phil Hughes sat at 92.1 mph with his fastball last year en route to his breakout performance. This year, his season average is just 90.9 and his fastball has been even slower in June. He’s still a strike-throwing machine, but he’s not fooling anyone and his fastball has generated its lowest SwStk% since 2011. Sure enough, that was the year his velocity had declined as well, and it turned out he was suffering through shoulder issues. Whether he’s hurt right now or not, I don’t know, but he clearly needs his fastball to rack up the strikeouts. I wouldn’t count on much of a rebound.

Jeff Samardzija’s June velocity is down a full mile per hour from what he averaged last year. It hasn’t affected the pitch’s SwStk% though, but his always lethal splitter’s SwStk% is about half of his career average. He’s been hurt by the White Sox’s terrible defense, as the team sports the third lowest UZR/150 in baseball, which has inflated his BABIP and suppressed his LOB%. I’m sure that will improve some, but I don’t know what happened to that splitter, and he’ll need his best pitch to have any chance of rebounding. I’d buy low, but it would have to be at a hefty discount as I’m slightly concerned.

Edinson Volquez’s May velocity was actually higher than he averaged in every single previous season since he made his debut in 2005. So a decline in June is nothing to worry about. More worrisome is a 3.10 ERA vs 4.17 SIERA. The ball park and defense should help him beat his SIERA, but certainly not by a full run.

Danny Salazar’s velocity was up from last year’s full season mark and in June it’s back down to just about what he averaged last year. He’s still making everyone swing and miss, but for some reason, an inflated rate of his flies are hopping over the wall. In watching him pitch, I wonder if he’s a great example of the good control, bad command group. His walk rates suggest excellent control, but I just don’t come away feeling like he possesses excellent control when I watch his games. Agree? Disagree?

Corey Kluber averaged 93.2 mph with his fastball in 2013. In 2014, Kluber averaged…93.2 mph with his fastball. So far in 2015, what do you think his fastball has averaged? If you guessed 93.3 mph, you would be right! How’s that for consistency? He finds himself on the decliners list simply because his velocity was up in May and now has just dropped back down to around where he normally is. Man, if only the Indians had a defense. Though with Giovanny Urshela and Francisco Lindor up now, that BABIP could come down quickly.