#2xSP: 9.19-9.25 (Updated)

Here we are, for the penultimate edition of #2xSP this year. We’ve had a markedly better year than last, and the goal is to keep the ERA under 4.00 — after last week, woof — with a continued push for maybe 8.5 K/9 (high goal, but why not reach for the stars?) and hopefully lowering that WHIP under 1.30.

Here’s what we’re working with so far:

43-43 record
3.94 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.8 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
61 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP A.J. Cole – 13.3% ESPN – @MIA (93), @PIT (98)

It’s hard to really know what matters in samples as small as what Cole has put forth. What we do know for sure if this is a couple of pretty solid matchups, though going on the road can be a daunting task for any young pitcher. His first two starts on the road this year were solid — @BAL, @NYM — where he’s combined for a 3.46 ERA, 9.0 K/9 and an OPS against of just .640. Again, that’s just two starts, but those are solid numbers. Also solid is that Cole has induced double-digit swinging strike numbers in four of five starts, with the lone time he didn’t being eight in a season-low 78 pitches against the Phillies in his second-to-last start. That seems to back up the fact that he’s fanned more than a batter per inning — 31 in 28.2 innings — which should help us in the K/9 department. Now, let’s just hope for a couple quality starts.

UPDATE: We’re going with Clayton Richard instead of Cole, who will likely be bumped by the return of Joe Ross. The Padres face the Diamondbacks (95) and Giants (98) this week. Richard has a 1.70  ERA in eight appearances (six starts) with the Padres, with a 7.3 K/9 mark and a couple decent matchups at home this week.

RHP Robert Gsellman – 8.3% ESPN – v. ATL (85), v. PHI (80)

JACKPOT. The guy is barely owned and is facing the two worst offenses in baseball next week — AT HOME. Gsellman is pretty interesting through five MLB appearances (four starts), as he’s tossed 26.1 innings with 7.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a groundball rate of 48.6%. There’s room to work within each of those numbers — fewer walks would be nice for sure — and you’re ultimately talking about a guy who pumps mid-90s heat with a slider under the tutelage of Mr. Warthen. It’s a small sample size to be sure, but that slider has been pretty good so far (16.7% whiff rate, .661 OPS against). He’s run the fastball as high as 96 mph, and the two-seam variation is really, really heavy (60.6% groundball rate). He’s definitely…..interesting.

RHP Matt Garza – 7.8% ESPN – v. PIT (98), v. CIN (89)

Yes, that Matt Garza who signed roughly the same deal in the same offseason as a number of other pitchers who’ve been left for dead — notably, Ricky Nolasco and Ubaldo Jimenez. Garza’s season numbers are unremarkable — 4.22 ERA, 6.3 K/9 — as they ever were, but he’s put together a semi-interesting stretch here recently. First of all, one thing that stands out is his 54.1% groundball rate. He’s never been anywhere near that. He’s really spiked the two-seamer usage here in the last couple years, so there could be something more there. Garza’s last four starts have been….interesting. It starts with an outing where he allowed five runs, but just one was earned with nine strikeouts against the Pirates — whom he sees again this upcoming week. Overall however, he’s allowed one or zero earned runs in each start, for a 1.16 ERA, 25-7 K/BB ratio and .646 OPS against in 23.1 innings. We’re talking about a nearly 33-year-old righty here, so it’s still sort of unlikely he’s just flipped a switch overnight. But he’s got previous success in his career — and plenty of it — and a couple of really nice matchups, so we’ll gamble here. If you prefer, Dan Straily is also an option, but he’s much higher owned and has the Cubs at Wrigley to start the week. I’m not terribly enthused about that.