#2xSP: 6.27-7.3

We’re trying this Thursday thing one more time, but we did have a bit of a screw up with Archie Bradley starting Sunday rather than the Monday ESPN had suggested. Ultimately it comes down to you, the readers.

If you prefer we go a little earlier with the picks on Thursday with the understanding that probables can change, I don’t really mind writing these earlier, instead of on Fridays. So if you have an opinion, make sure we hear it.

Here are the results so far:

22-21 record
3.90 ERA
8.1 K/9
2.8 K/BB
1.35 WHIP
36 quality starts

We’ve got a trio of lefties this week. Here they are, with this week’s matchups and the opposing teams’ wRC+ in parentheses:

LHP Robbie Ray – 9.4% ESPN – v. PHI (70), v. SFG (104)

It’s a wild week of pick your poison for #2xSP, as each of these lefties have the common thread off facing the co-worst offenses in baseball. Coming into play Thursday, the Braves and Phillies are tied at 70 wRC+, and luckily this week we were able to find a trio of pitchers where each faces that offense once. And yet, they each have an above-average matchup on the other side. Truth be told, I was recommending these three most likely even without the ultra-strong matchups — others considered were Dan Straily, Daniel Mengden and John Gant, for what it’s worth — but I think each was solidified by a super strong matchup over the course of the week.

I was moderately big on Ray coming into this season. In the second half last year, he really started to mix grounders and strikeouts — walks crept up too, I suppose — and that’s a skill set that’ll play up anywhere. But I liked Ray as a lefty with that skillset in a place where lefties absolutely launch the ball. It hasn’t been a perfect season for Ray, but he’s at 10.4 K/9 and 44.5% as far as groundball rate. I can work with that. I’m less enthused about his results this month — a 4.45 ERA for his third month in a row with a 4.00-something ERA — but he’s got 36 grounders and 33 strikeouts in 28.1 innings in June. I like it.

LHP Danny Duffy – 33.6% ESPN – v. STL (111), @PHI (70)

We recommended Duffy a couple weeks ago, and I almost feel guilty recommending someone this highly owned. Then again, by our rules we could have technically recommended Matt Shoemaker and Trevor Bauer, too. Those guys are clearly owned in even semi-decent leagues, so I apologize if that’s the case with Duff Man here — OH YEAH! It’s been a little bumpy with Duffy over the last week or so — including three home runs allowed to the Tigers in his penultimate start — but I really like his numbers since moving back to the rotation. His line against is pretty similar to what he used to allow as a starter (.729 OPS against) but he’s ratcheted the strikeouts to a rate much more commensurate with the stuff he possesses. Since starting again, he’s up to 50 strikeouts and just 11 walks in 40.2 innings. Nine home runs in that stretch is a bummer, but he’s walking nobody and has a 15 % swinging-strike rate in that stretch. I’ll gamble on that.

LHP Adam Conley – 19.6% ESPN – @DET (107), @ATL (70)

There are moments when Conley’s control escapes him, but for the most part I think he’s got a pretty solid profile as a lefty. He’s not quite a strikeout per inning guy, but he limits contact (.246 BAA), and has also done a good job limiting the hard contact, as opponents are hitting just .246/.334/.362 against him overall. Better yet is that he’s stymied righties with just a .682 OPS against. My primary worry against the Tigers is how he’ll handle guys like Miguel Cabrera and Justin Upton, with the added bonus of J.D. Martinez being on the shelf. By the looks of it, Conley attacks righties with more changeups (18.9%) while reeling back on the fastball (63.7%). Against lefties, he goes to work with heaters (69.3%) with fewer changeups (12.5%). That doesn’t necessarily strike me as the reason he’s been tougher on righties, though. Either way, he’s a guy I like quite a bit.