2026 Projection Showdown: THE BAT X vs Steamer ERA Forecasts

For the first time, we can now compare THE BAT X ERA forecasts to other projection systems. That’s because Christmas just arrived early — the pitcher version of THE BAT X has finally been released and is now available on our player pages. A shoutout goes to my friend Derek Carty for what I presume was a massive undertaking in developing the pitching side of his Statcast-driven THE BAT X model. Let’s all be selfishly thankful that he hasn’t been scooped up by a Major League team yet, allowing his analysis and projections to remain accessible.

I am excited to dive in now to see how they differ from the original THE BAT forecasts, but for now, let’s compare them to the Steamer projections, focusing on starting pitcher ERA. We’ll begin with the pitchers THE BAT X is forecasting for a meaningfully lower ERA than Steamer. Note that using an unweighted average of my data set, THE BAT X is projecting a higher ERA than Steamer, so their favorites are going to feature smaller gaps than Steamer’s favorites. As long as you use the same projection system for all pitchers, then it’s not going to make a difference if one is forecasting a higher run environment than the other, as player values are all relative.

I tried limiting these tables to fantasy relevant names, meaning if both systems projected high ERAs, the player was excluded, regardless of how large the gap in ERA forecasts is.

Remember Andrew Painter?! The one-time top prospect missed all of the 2023 and 2024 seasons recovering from TJ surgery after a dominant professional debut in 2022. He finally returned last season, but posted disappointing results that included an inflated 5.26 ERA and just a 23.7% strikeout rate, mostly at Triple-A. Despite the weak results, he’s the favorite to open the season as the Phillies fifth starter. THE BAT X is projecting a significantly higher strikeout rate than Steamer, with the latter forecasting well below every other system. THE BAT X is also far more bullish on his walk rate, as the only system (along with THE BAT) to forecast a mark lower than 8.5%. It appears THE BAT X is weighing his 2022 performance a lot more heavily than the rest of the systems. It’s really anyone’s guess what to expect out of Painter, so his appearance here is more of a reminder not to forget about him, as he’s certainly young enough to rediscover his pre-surgery form.

Staying on the TJ surgery recovery theme, Emmet Sheehan missed all of the 2024 season as well, but was fantastic with the Dodgers between the rotation and relief last year. All the forecasts are projecting some relief innings, despite the expectation he opens as the Dodgers’ fourth starter. THE BAT X is more bullish on Sheehan’s strikeout rate, forecasting two percentage points higher, while the two systems project similar walk rates. He has posted some big strikeout rates in the minors, but it’s still asking a lot for a high 20% rate in his first full season of at least 100 innings. The systems also disagree on his BABIP, as THE BAT X is projecting the lowest of the bunch by far. That’s due to Sheehan’s extreme fly ball ways and career .243 BABIP over a small MLB sample.

Hunter Greene looked like an obvious regression candidate in 2025 after he overperformed his SIERA by more than a full run the prior season. Instead, his ERA finished at an almost identical level, as he opted for the skills improvement path to fend off the possibility his luck would run out. While his strikeout rate jumped back above 30%, it was the massive decline in walk rate that really fueled the skills-backed breakout. His BABIP remained low, while his already high LOB% increased even higher. So every forecasting system is still projecting a significant jump in ERA this year. That said, THE BAT X is the highest on the totem pole for strikeout rate, forecasting Greene nearly repeats the career high mark last year, with only marginal regression in walk rate. Steamer, on the other hand, is lowest for strikeout rate and higher on walk rate. Greene’s velocity, which was already high, jumped even higher last year, so I think it’ll be important to monitor whether he sustains those gains. It results in a jump in Stuff+ and ensured a return to the 30%+ strikeout rate plateau. I think THE BAT X’s metric forecasts might be a little too bullish for my blood, but I still think its ERA projection, which bakes in more than enough luck trio regression will prove closer.

Gee golly, who expected a 3.53 ERA and 85 ERA- from Chad Patrick, ranked just 24th in the Brewers organization? He somehow managed a 25.2% strikeout rate, despite a paltry 24.9% CSW%, which suggests he’s at risk for some major strikeout rate regression. All the systems are forecasting an ERA jump to at least 4.00, but Steamer is the most bearish of the bunch. The two systems also disagree on BABIP, where THE BAT X is well below Steamer, giving Patrick’s extreme fly ball ways more credit.

Former top prospect Cade Horton enjoyed an excellent debut last year, at least from a results perspective with a sub-3.00 ERA. Of course, it wasn’t supported by his underlying skills, as his strikeout rate sat at just 20.4%, and he overperformed both his SIERA and xERA by significant margins. While THE BAT X is projecting better strikeout and walk rates than Steamer, the difference is rather small and doesn’t fully explain the ERA gap. The two systems disagree on BABIP as well, but again, the margin isn’t dramatic. Offsetting those differences somewhat is a lower LOB% from THE BAT X. It doesn’t seem obvious why THE BAT X’s ERA is nearly 0.30 lower than Steamer, but perhaps it’s a series of small differences than are adding up. He’ll really need to up that strikeout rate to avoid serious ERA regression. Luckily, his minor league track record suggests it’s possible.

Pitching a bit more in relief than as a starter, Braxton Ashcraft impressed last year and now gets a chance to open the season in the rotation. THE BAT X is highest in projected strikeout rate, while Steamer is lowest, as the only system below 20%, albeit barely. With a pitcher friendly ballpark behind him for his home games, and a vastly improved offense, Pirates starters like Aschcraft now look like prime sleepers.

With a 2.76 SIERA and 3.46 xERA, I’m shocked that Chase Burns will have to actually compete for a rotation spot. An inflated BABIP and suppressed LOB% made his small sample debut look far worse than it was. But, you can’t overlook that mid-30% strikeout rate. THE BAT X is all in here, projecting a 30.3% strikeout rate for a guy who has all of 43.1 MLB and 12.1 Tiple-A innings to his name. It’s aggressive for sure, though the numbers support the bullishness. On the other hand, Steamer is forecasting the lowest strikeout rate of all the systems, which would still be impressive, of course. Depending on when your auction/draft is, Burns could end up being quite the profit-maker coming off an inflated debut ERA and without a guaranteed rotation spot.

Jacob Misiorowski, along with Burns, was another eagerly anticipated arrival, and similarly posted a 30%+ strikeout rate, but underperformed both his SIERA and xERA. Unlike Burns, Misiorowski struggled with his control, which has plagued him his entire career. In fact, his 11.4% walk rate during his MLB debut was actually the lowest he has ever posted at any professional stop! While he could get away with such poor control when striking out 30%+ batters, it makes him far riskier if that strikeout rate declines any, or that walk rate creeps back up to some of the levels he has posted in the past, like the mid-teens. THE BAT X is projecting a strikeout rate decline like every other system, but Steamer is well below the rest, while the two are forecasting similar walk rates. Given his elite stuff grades from both PitchingBot and Stuff+, I definitely lean toward THE BAT X’s strikeout rate projection. It’ll really come down to where his walk rate lends to determine his ERA, but I always like betting on a young pitcher finding his control and buying the strikeout rate.

With pinpoint control and command, Bryan Woo has suddenly turned himself into one of the AL’s best pitchers. As usual, Steamer is lowest on his strikeout rate and highest on his BABIP, causing the disconnect in ERA forecasts between the two systems. Somehow, some way, Woo managed to experience a strikeout rate surge last season, despite his CSW% dropping to below average. It’s hard to believe he can post a similar strikeout rate without a CSW% rebound to at least around his 2024 level. So it’s hard to say which projected strikeout rate I believe in more, but probably THE BAT X’s, ever so slightly since he could still suffer some regression and finish right around there. That said, his lack of truly outstanding stuff is going to make me shy away from paying full price.

Let’s now flip over to Steamer’s favorites.

Nick Lodolo was an obvious sleeper after underperforming both his SIERA and xERA in 2024, and sure enough, he delivered, posting a 3.33 ERA and even slightly improved skills. The underlying projected metric comparison here is fascinating. Steamer is projecting a similar strikeout rate and increased walk rate, resulting in an ERA that jumps just back over 4.00. Meanwhile, THE BAT X is projecting the highest strikeout rate of all systems and the lowest walk rate, but by far the highest ERA! Even its BABIP is slightly lower than Steamer’s forecast! The only difference I see is in LOB%, which is pretty significant, but significant enough to more than offset the better metrics everywhere else? Weird. I wouldn’t let THE BAT X’s ERA forecast turn you away from Lodolo this season.

Yusei Kikuchi’s skills collapsed last year, but Steamer is projecting a bit of a rebound, while THE BAT X is projecting further erosion of his strikeout rate to another new low since his 2019 debut. It’s hard to know what we’ll get this year as the quality of his stuff declined and control reverted back to his pre-2023 days. I still think that THE BAT X is being overly pessimistic, but I guess that’s the ultimate downside.

Luis Castillo’s fastball velocity fell for the third straight season, taking his strikeout rate down to a career low. It didn’t affect his results though, as his ERA was right in line with his career mark. Steamer is projecting a marginal rebound, while THE BAT X is projecting additional decline to a sub-21% strikeout rate. I wouldn’t bet on the trend continuing downward and think THE BAT X is far, far too bearish here. But seriously, the trends aren’t looking great and it’s highly doubtful I’ll be paying full price for him.

You really never know how a pitcher’s performance is ultimately impacted after returning from major surgery, and I was personally very curious to see how Spencer Strider would be affected after two absolutely dominating seasons in 2022 and 2023. Turns out, he was significantly impacted. His fastball velocity fell, while that pitch and his slider earned significantly worse stuff grades, all of which led to a strikeout rate plunge. Steamer is projecting some sort of a rebound, while THE BAT X is projecting more of the same. It’s really all just a shot in the dark, because we know what the pre-surgery version was capable of and we now have a year of the post-surgery version. Does he improve this season further removed from the surgery and another offseason to get his stuff back? Who knows! He’ll certainly be one of this year’s bigger upside plays and could be worth the risk depending on his price.

A 4.19 ERA for Tyler Glasnow?! THE BAT X’s projection would be his highest since 2018, while his SIERA and xERA haven’t been that high since 2017 when he was a completely different pitcher, having posted just an 18.4% strikeout rate. Steamer, and all the systems, seem to be quite bearish on Glasnow, projecting strikeout rate declines and his highest ERA since 2020, but THE BAT X is on bear island all by its lonesome. A decline in fastball velocity is a concern, and surprise, surprise, his overall Stuff+ dipped to below average at just 98 last season, so perhaps some caution is warranted here. Perhaps the oft-injured pitcher was just not fully healthy, which his elevated walk rate could back up.

Ever since showing diminished fastball velocity during spring training, I was bearish on Aaron Nola last year. Of course, I didn’t expect a 6.01 ERA and time missed to injury. The majority of the systems project a decline in strikeout rate, but THE BAT X is lowest there, while also forecasting the highest walk rate. Interestingly, it’s also projecting the lowest BABIP of the bunch, which would represent his lowest since 2018 and second lowest of his career. That’s a weird combination and not something I could foresee happening. It’s clear Nola should be better this year, but how much he rebounds is anyone’s guess. I will probably be willing to speculate if he comes cheap enough as he showed good skills and results as recently as 2024.

Shane McClanahan has now missed the entire 2024 and 2025 seasons, though he did record 3.1 minor league innings last year. We have seen a healthy McClanahan post strong skills and results, but he is now officially just a dart throw. Steamer is projecting the highest strikeout rate of all the systems, but still well below his career average, while THE BAT X is second lowest. I have no idea how his various maladies will ultimately affect his skills and how many innings he’ll be able to throw this season. He’s someone to monitor closely during spring training as a potentially high reward name that could come relatively cheaply.

It was a tale of two halves for Sandy Alcantara, as he was significantly better in the second half, when he was further removed from his recovery from TJ surgery that knocked him out for the entire 2024 season. That second half improvement might make him a popular sleeper this year as fantasy owners remember his pre-2023 form. The difference between Steamer and THE BAT X here stems mostly from the strikeout rate forecast, in which Steamer is more bullish on, whereas THE BAT X is lowest among all systems, forecasting another decline to match his lowest career mark set back in 2019. I just can’t see that happening, so I’m definitely betting on him finishing closer to his Steamer ERA.