2025 Preview: Potential Batter HR/FB Rate Surgers & Decliners — A Review

Preseason article review season continues! Today, let’s look back on a 2025 preview post where I identified potential HR/FB rate surgers and decliners. While I used to use my own xHR/FB rate equation when I projected a player’s HR/FB rate for the upcoming season, I decided to simplify things for this exercise. Instead, I used a metric I came up with called Barrels/(FB+LD) to help me come up with a list of names on both ends of the spectrum. So with the background out of the way, let’s review how these hitters ended up performing.

Welp, this was a sad list. Great start Podhorzer, great start! Out of the nine names, four of them did see an increase in HR/FB rate, but one of those four barely improved, which doesn’t exactly scream “surger”. Another one of the names failed to record a single PA in the Majors. Let’s dive into the names.

It’s absolutely absurd that Oneil Cruz posted the fourth highest HardHit%, highest maxEV (an insane 122.9 MPH), and seventh highest Barrel% among qualified hitters this season and yet recorded just a 17.7% HR/FB rate. Like just unbelievable. His fly ball Pull% was just around league average, so while it certainly could have been higher, it’s not to blame. His home park is death on left-handed home runs, as it sported the lowest left-handed home run factor in all of baseball this year, which definitely explains a lot of the underperformance. BUT! He only posted a marginally lower HR/FB rate at home compared to the road, and his road mark was just 18.2%. It’s not like he posted a mid-20% mark in away games where it’s very clear that his park crushed his chances at a 20%+ mark for the season.

Entering his age 27 season, I would love, love, love to see the Pirates trade Cruz. His fantasy value would almost surely skyrocket no matter where he lands, though his steals could be impacted, which could offset gains elsewhere.

It’s really crazy that Eloy Jiménez’s MLB career seems over, as the former top prospect will go down as one of the biggest recent busts. He spent his time this year at Triple-A for both the Rays and Blue Jays, posting a sad .313 wOBA in 215 PAs. If he can’t even hit Triple-A pitching now, I’m not sure there’s any hope left.

Alejandro Kirk was a good call! His HardHit% and Barrel% both surged and he even upped his FB% to set a new career high home run total. There should be more HR/FB rate upside here, but the current problem is he has posted significantly below average fly ball Pull% marks. He’ll need to at least return to the 20% plateau to take advantage of his obvious raw power.

Okay, so I was miffed at Cruz’s merely above average HR/FB rate above. I actually think I might be even more baffled by Bobby Witt Jr., who somehow managed to post a below average HR/FB rate with some elite Statcast numbers. Once again, he was slightly worse at home, but his road HR/FB rate was still well below what I would have expected. He could certainly afford to pull more of his flies, so that’s part of the problem, but I don’t think that rate is low enough to completely explain the pedestrian HR/FB rate. One of these years, he’s going to post a 20% HR/FB rate and hit 40 home runs, mark my words.

Gabriel Moreno rebounded nicely after a dip in HR/FB rate back in 2024, making him a solid second catcher while he was healthy. He still hasn’t even reached 400 PAs though which has limited his value to NL-Only leagues. The skill set is solid here and I think there’s some additional HR/FB rate upside.

How the heck did Nick Gonzales’ HR/FB rate go down versus 2024?! His Barrel%, right around league average last year, plummeted, despite decent enough HardHit% and maxEV marks. Since he doesn’t steal bases and plays in a weak lineup, the lack of power has made him worthless, and a guy you end up with accidentally in NL-Only leagues. He’s still young enough for a power spike though, at the very least getting that HR/FB rate into double digits.

Alright, so I definitely didn’t see that Giancarlo Stanton HR/FB rate spike coming, as he posted the second highest mark of his career, though it came in about half a season. Still, he clearly hadn’t lost home run power like his last two down years in HR/FB rate suggested, so some sort of a rebound looked like a strong possibility. He remains a much better option in shallow mixed leagues so he’s easier to replace when he inevitably gets hurt.

Gosh, what ha s happened to Austin Riley?! He was an obvious rebound candidate after a disappointing 2024, but 2025 was even worse! Like some of the other names above, his Statcast metrics are head-scratching because they remained elite, yet resulted in a HR/FB rate well below expectations. He might come the cheapest he has in a long time in 2026 and would be a prime profit target if so.

LaMonte Wade Jr. was supposed to have a starting job for the Giants, but that didn’t last and he ended up recording just 242 PAs…with absolutely no power. Unlike many of the other names above, Wade suffered from a true power outage. His HardHit% plummeted to a career low, while his Barrel% was cut in half. I think it’s safe to say that entering his age 32 season, full-time work will not be in his future.

Let’s now shift over to the decliners, where the hope is I performed a bit better!

Holy guacamole, not only did I perform better, but I actually batted 1.000 over six PAs! And these weren’t just minor wins, four of the six suffered double digit declines, which is just crazy to have identified. Let’s find out what happened.

It was a risk listing TJ Friedl atop this list given that his 2024 HR/FB rate was just 11.9%. Realistically, how far could his 2025 mark truly fall? Welp, it probably fell as far as anyone could have feared, dropping into single digits for the first time since his partial 2022 season. His Statcast metrics remained relatively stable…and seriously underwhelming. Since he makes pretty good contact and sports a league average FB%, it still led to 14 home runs, so along with the steals, he was still a respectable fantasy performer. But it was still well below his 2023 fantasy performance.

Gunnar Henderson was my USA Today Leviathan issue pick for 2025 bust and although he tried his best to avoid being one by stealing 30 bases, he likely failed to earn his cost in the majority (all?) of leagues. Of course, I didn’t expect his HR/FB rate to plummet to just 12.3%, from above 20% in 2024. His HardHit% only declined marginally, while his maxEV actually notched a new career high. However, his Barrel% dropped back into single digits, setting a new career low. The skills here remain strong and he’ll certainly rebound, but a low FB% does cap his home run upside at the moment.

I’m sure I wasn’t the only one calling for a HR/FB rate decline for Ketel Marte this year! He still did post the third highest mark of his career, but it was a far cry from what he recorded in 2024, when he posted his first mark over 20%. Offsetting the decline in HR/FB rate was his lowest strikeout rate over a full season since 2019 and a career high FB%. So he remained a strong fantasy contributor and likely still earned or came close to earning his cost. The Statcast metrics remain elite, as he actually set a new career best maxEV and Barrel% this year, so I would expect similar home run power in 2026, at the very least, though we’ll have to see if he could maintain the FB% spike.

Tyler Fitzgerald was one of the more obvious calls to suffer a HR/FB rate decline as his Statcast metrics screamed league average skills at best. This year, his HardHit% dropped below 30%, while his Barrel% was nearly cut in half. As those marks fell, so did his HR/FB rate, which finished in the single digits. It came over a small sample size though, but I doubt more PAs would have resulted in an improved mark.

Mark Vientos was another 2024 breakout that was probably a popular call to suffer a HR/FB rate decline, though I bet no one, not even more, saw a decline all the way to 14.9% coming. The Statcast metrics were still pretty good though, and he improved his strikeout rate, though there was little movement in his high SwStk%. He’s a pretty easy rebound candidate next year assuming he’s given a starting job, which would have been more of a given if he continued his hot August play into September. Alas, he only had that one good month, so I would imagine it’s not a given he’ll open the season with a regular gig.

Injury limited Luke Raley to just 219 PAs and his power completely disappeared. I definitely didn’t expect this kind of crash, and it’s pretty baffling considering extremely stable Statcast metrics. The upside here isn’t exactly high given his platoon role, and that’s if he finds himself with a starting job somewhere.