2024 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Hitter wOBA Forecasts — A Review

In mid-February, I compared wOBA projections from THE BAT X and Steamer forecasting systems. I then shared each system’s “favorites”, or the hitters each was most bullish on compared to the other, and added my take on which system I thought would prove to be closer. Given the size of each group shared in the original post, it’s clear that Steamer’s wOBA projections were generally higher, as the system was more bullish on significantly more hitters, so keep that in mind. Let’s now review the results.

I’ll start with THE BAT X’s wOBA favorites, so the hitters it was most bullish on compared to Steamer. You’ll notice that this is a pretty short list and after just seven hitters, we’re already down to just a 0.015 wOBA difference.

So out of the list of THE BAT X favorites, the system proved closer on four of the six, with one of the losses coming on Mike Trout, who accumulated just 126 PAs. Sadly, I was even more embarrassing than Steamer’s performance here, as I only got one take correct, where I chose which projection I thought would prove closer!

While Trout’s wOBA fell to its lowest since his 2011 debut before getting injured and missing the remainder of the year, there was lots to get excited about. His strikeout rate and SwStk% had rebounded so far, back to where they had been before both spiking over the past three seasons. He was hitting a ton of fly balls again like he did in 2022, which did destroy his BABIP, but also put him on a big home run pace. And finally, he suddenly decided to steal bases again, swiping six already, after he totaled that amount from 2020-2023! He still hasn’t recorded 500 PAs (he missed by one in 2022) since 2019, so he’s a real difficult guy to value, but he gave us hope for what we might expect next year.

Matt Chapman ultimately finished in between the two forecasts, but a bit closer to THE BAT X’s more bullish mark. This was his highest wOBA since 2019, so it was a surprise to see such an optimistic forecast from the system, and yet, he came close to hitting it. His power rebounded after last year’s outage, but the real key here was a strikeout rate improvement to his best mark since 2019, which paired with a single digit SwStk% for the first time since then as well. He also suddenly swiped 15 bases, four more than he had through his entire career heading into the season. I wouldn’t bet on a repeat, but he was only caught twice, so who knows!

Uhhh yeah, I think everyone who wasn’t ultra bullish on Shohei Ohtani was wrong! Naturally, I was cautious here as he recovered from elbow surgery which didn’t allow him to pitch. But perhaps not worrying about pitching boosted his offense. After a historic 50/50 season, I can’t wait to see how much he goes for in my local mixed league auction next year!

I was real surprised to find Steamer’s pessimistic Dansby Swanson projection, which forecasted a wOBA that would have been his lowest since 2019. Sure enough, the system once again makes me thing sometimes these forecasts are using crystal balls, because Swanson not only did post his lowest mark since 2019, but it was even lower than that pessimistic forecast. It was mostly due to a power outage, as his ISO slipped to its lowest mark since his first full season in 2017. Oddly, his HardHit% was right in line with past years, as was his maxEV. His Barrel% was down slightly, but not enough to justify the drop in wOBA. His xwOBA suggests he was a bit unlucky this year, but it actually also suggests he was even unluckier last year.

Yeah, of course Aaron Judge blew his projections out of the water. I only sided with Steamer here just because of how difficult it is to notch a .400+ wOBA, especially at Judge’s age of 32. A career best strikeout rate helped here, which may not be repeated, and his second highest BABIP is unlikely to be repeated as well. Given his age and injury history, his price is likely to be too much for me next year in batting average leagues.

Teoscar Hernández was the only THE BAT X favorite I sided correctly on. He fully rebounded off his down 2023, and getting out of T-Mobile Park as his home turf really helped. He posted just a .276 wOBA at home in 2023, versus a .353 mark on the road, so park factors clearly played a big role in that downturn. This year, he loved Dodger Stadium, posting a .378 wOBA there, versus a .343 mark on the road.

Note that I removed a bunch of names from the original list that accumulated fewer than 100 PAs. Over such a small sample size, anything can happen, so it’s silly to compare projection systems. Even this list includes six players with fewer than 200 PAs. So I’ll mainly touch on the fantasy relevant and the names I offered my take on.

Overall, Steamer only proved closer on seven of the 19 names here. It might have a lot to do with the fact that in aggregate, Steamer’s projected wOBA was higher than THE BAT X, and the league just posted its second lowest wOBA going back to 2015. My takes performed better, having been correct on four of six calls here.

Let’s talk Wyatt Langford first. The game’s second best prospect shot through the minors, having recorded just 26 Triple-A PAs and 54 Double-A PAs before opening the season as the Rangers’ starting DH/left fielder. While I acknowledged the fantastic skills he had shown over a variety of small and tiny sample sizes in the minors, I automatically went with the pessimistic forecast here solely due to the inexperience. While he did outperform his bearish THE BAT X forecast, he was still much closer to that mark and likely a disappointment to the majority. I think the biggest surprise was the lack of power. With 35/70 Game and 70/70 Raw Power grades, the scouting certainly suggested he wasn’t ready to showcase his power in-game. But still, he showed a lot of it in the lower minors. He also posted an above average HardHit%, strong maxEV, and respectable Barrel%. But the balls simply didn’t fly out of the yard or go for as many extra bases as you might expect. I love the foundation here and see significantly more power next season.

Triston Casas missed a significant chunk of the season due to injury, ending the year with just 243 PAs. I sided with the more optimistic Steamer here, as after a .367 wOBA during his first full season in 2023, I didn’t understand how THE BAT X was so pessimistic on his follow-up. Sure enough, THE BAT X almost nailed it, but it was mainly due to a spike in strikeout rate, as both his BABIP and ISO were pretty darn close to last year. Of course, things could have gone very differently had he been healthy most or all of the season.

Gee golly, if you speculated on Mark Vientos thanks to Steamer’s more bullish forecast, you’re probably thrilled! Though he wasn’t a regular all year, he still managed to outperform all expectations and knock 27 homers. His ISO surged and now matches his Statcast metrics, while his BABIP spiked, pushing up his batting average to respectable territory. His xwOBA suggests he overperformed, but it’s mostly on the BABIP and batting average front. I wouldn’t bet on another 26.5% HR/FB rate, but he should be a lock for another 20%+ mark.

I thought THE BAT X’s Jeff McNeil projection was a bit too pessimistic, even though I sided with it. And yet, it ultimately proved not bearish enough! A career worst strikeout rate and BABIP is a bad combo for a guy with limited power.

Suddenly Steven Kwan has power?! Okay, so it’s still below average, but was a lot less so this season. His HR/FB rate more than doubled and his ISO spiked, while both his HardHit% and Barrel% increased. All of these metrics are still well below average, but a nice step forward for Kwan. Combine this with his normally insane contact skills and low strikeout rate, and you got yourself a career year. That his steals slipped means he might not have even been as valuable in fantasy leagues, but at least this season ensures he remains the team’s leadoff hitter for years to come. That said, he’s not the type I like to draft as he’s still heavily reliant on his batting average and contact skills without really standing out in any counting stat skill.

Sweet, it feels good to get Isaac Paredes right, siding with the more pessimistic THE BAT X here, as I was really bearish here given his xwOBA overperformance. I get that his power has been driven by an extreme pulled fly ball tendency, but that seemed risky given how weak his HardHit%, maxEV, and Barrel% all were. Sure enough, his power plummeted this year, even though his pulled fly ball rate was right in line with his last two seasons. Both his walk and strikeout rates remained strong, though, but a ton of fly balls, combined with a high rate of pop-ups, crushed his BABIP again. It means that unless those pulled flies are going for home runs, he’s worthless in shallow mixed leagues. Of course, he’s still young enough to simply increase his power and boost those Statcast metrics, which could give him 20% HR/FB rate upside if he’s also continuing to pull his flies.