2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer wOBA Forecasts, Part 2

Last week, I identified and discussed the hitters THE BAT X was most bullish on for wOBA compared with Steamer. While typically not a fantasy category, wOBA is still extremely important to pay attention to since it drives playing time and spot in the batting order, both of which fuel counting stats. So let’s now flip over to the hitters Steamer is more bullish on compared to THE BAT X.

Jose Siri is exactly the type of hitter fantasy owners drool over, but are extremely frustrating. With both power and speed, he has the potential to go 20/20 over a full season. Unfortunately, he strikes out often, and doesn’t walk enough. So that could hold back his playing time and/or keep him at the bottom of the Rays lineup, hurting his counting stats. Steamer is significantly more bullish here than every other system, while THE BAT X is more bearish than everyone else except its sister system, THE BAT. Steamer is most optimistic about Siri’s strikeout rate, and the only thing I could think of driving that bullishness is just age-related improvement. He has routinely struck out over 30% of the time in the minors with a high SwStk%, so it’s hard to believe he’ll suddenly make better contact now.

Steamer is also higher on his BABIP, but in line with the other systems, while THE BAT X and its sister THE BAT are well below everyone else. Siri has had a history of high BABIP marks, so I think THE BAT X is too low here. Finally, Steamer is much more bullish on Siri’s power than THE BAT X. I’m actually going to side with Steamer on this one, given Siri’s healthy maxEV and history of good power in the minors. Overall, I’m leaning toward Siri’s wOBA finishing closer to Steamer’s more bullish projection, but I’m not sure that will even be enough to keep a starting job all year on the shuffling Rays.

Tony Kemp is an interesting name to find here and we learn that the two systems are close on both his walk and strikeout rates. However, they differ on BABIP, where THE BAT X is well below the rest of the system, including Steamer. It’s surprising THE BAT X isn’t projecting more of a rebound over last year’s low BABIP, especially given the rule changes that you would expect should raise BABIP marks across the board. Furthermore, THE BAT X is most pessimistic on Kemp’s ISO, as the only system (aside from its sister THE BAT) forecasting a sub-.100 mark. Its projection would represent a career low over any reasonable sample size, which I cannot get behind. I think this is an easy call that Steamer’s wOBA projection proves more accurate.

Former top prospect J.P. Crawford has yet to break out offensively, and has been pretty stable, making it surprising to find his name on this list as well. As usual, the difference begins with BABIP, where Steamer is most optimistic, but close to the other systems, while THE BAT X is most pessimistic and the only system below .280. I don’t see why we would expect him to post a mark nearly 20 points below his career average, especially as his batted ball profile has remained strong on line drives and his FB% has settled into the low 30% range, which is good for BABIP. Similarly, Steamer is most bullish on his ISO, but close to the rest of the systems, while THE BAT X is super pessimistic, projecting a .080 ISO, which would be the lowest of his career. That’s hard projection to explain for a 28-year-old! I’m again leaning toward Steamer’s wOBA forecast as proving closest.

Nolan Arenado rebounded nicely last year, making us forget that he’s no longer calling Coors Field home. None of the projection systems are buying it though, but THE BAT X is way down on his 2023 performance compared to the rest of the systems. Without Coors aiding him, THE BAT X expects Arenado’s BABIP to plunge again, while his ISO drops back below .200, for just the first time ovr a full season since his 2013 debut. Arenado has overperformed his xwOBA the last two years in St. Louis, so I definitely agree we should expect regression this season. But I think THE BAT X is overdoing it, and while Steamer’s forecast might prove a bit optimistic, I think Arenado’s wOBA still finishes closer to its projection than THE BAT X’s.

Former top prospect Triston Casas earned a cup of coffee with the Red Sox last year and figures to be the team’s starting first baseman this season, at least against right-handers. Here, the two systems project identical BABIP marks, though Steamer’s strikeout rate forecast is lower and nearly matches ZiPS. A bigger difference is in walk rate, where THE BAT X, along with THE BAT, are at the bottom end of the projection range among all the systems. I’m not sure why the system is so pessimistic, as Casas’ minor league walk rates have been phenomenal, and finished at 14.5% at Triple-A. You should expect that to drop in the Majors, but I think Steamer’s projection is too bearish. The two systems are also far apart on his power, with THE BAT X far more pessimistic than every other system, while Steamer is right in line with the rest. That Casas outperformed his xSLG during his small sample debut probably plays a role here, but is seemingly being overweighted given the tiny sample size. I think Steamer’s more optimistic wOBA projection is going to prove more accurate than THE BAT X’s pessimistic mark.

Adam Frazier now finds himself as the Orioles starting second baseman, at least against right-handers. While the systems do differ on his strikeout, walk, and BABIP projections, they aren’t as meaningfully different as the names above him on this list. The real difference here is driven by his ISO forecasts. Frazier just posted the lowest mark of his career and the first time his ISO slid below .100. Steamer is forecasting a partial rebound back just above .100, but still a mark that would represent the second lowest of his career. On the other hand, THE BAT X expects a further decline to just a .068 ISO, which would represent a career low for the third straight season. I can’t believe that trend continues, as it’s really hard to post an ISO that low, and do so while holding down the strong side of a platoon! I’m going Steamer here again.