2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer wOBA Forecasts, Part 1, A Review

Let’s move on to batter wOBA forecasts as we review the results of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in various statistical categories. Today, we’ll begin by reviewing THE BAT X’s wOBA favorites, as compared to Steamer. While wOBA is typically not a fantasy category, it strongly correlates with home runs, RBI, runs scored, and batting average. And of course, keeps a hitter in the lineup if it’s high, while puts the hitter at risk of losing playing time if low. Let’s now find out how THE BAT X’s wOBA favorites performed.

Once again, THE BAT X takes the cake. Though it missed on the player it was most bullish on, it proved closer on four of six projections. Let’s discuss the players.

THE BAT X was most bullish on Mike Trout, who missed both forecasts en route to his lowest career wOBA. It was actually the first time his wOBA dipped below .400 (we’re ignoring his 135 PA debut in 2011), which is absolutely incredible to observe. Trout’s season was once again cut short, this time due to hamate bone fracture in his wrist, suffered after a swing, so it didn’t affect his performance before his season ended. He was just having a down year, and who knows if he would have gotten hot the rest of the way to bring his wOBA back to .400. What drove the career worst offense is a strikeout rate that rose to a career worst, that relatively in line with his past three seasons, a HR/FB rate that fell to its lowest since 2016, and ISO the lowest of his career. Since he also stopped stealing bases in 2020, he’s no longer the fantasy monster he used to be, and his recent injury history makes him a tough draft day buy at a high cost.

Shohei Ohtani laughed at all the wOBA projections, massively exceeding even the most optimistic of them. Career bests in strikeout and walk rates and ISO, along with an above career average BABIP led to the elite performance. In 2024, he’ll be returning from having undergone Tommy John surgery, so I would probably shy away at what figured to be an exorbitant price to roster him. There’s too much risk given the unknowns on how exactly his performance might be affected.

Kyle Schwarber was the only name that Steamer hit on, almost nailing his wOBA. What’s interesting here is that Schwarber posted the worst BABIP of his career at just .209, and while that killed his batting average, he was able to offset it with a career best 17.5% walk rate, which actually boosted his OBP higher than in 2022 and just above his career average. So much for the new defensive shift rules helping him! His BABIP on ground balls did increase from .128 in 2022 to .164 in 2023, but that’s still well below his career average of .204 on the batted ball type. I’d imagine he enjoys some better luck next year.

Willson Contreras exceeded THE BAT X’s optimistic projection by a marginal amount, as his BABIP jumped back above .300 after dipping below for two straight seasons. His walk rate also returned to double digits for the third time. Aside from those improvements, it was a pretty typical year for him, as he has been pretty darn consistent as a fantasy producer these past three seasons.

Woah J.D. Martinez! At age 35, he found the fountain of youth, or maybe just a move to the Hollywood lifestyle in Los Angeles was all he needed to rebound. While his strikeout rate surged above 30% for the first time, as his SwStk% hit a career worst, his power returned. His ISO jumped above .300 for just the second time in his career as his HR/FB rate surged to the third highest mark of his career. These types of performances are always difficult to predict and at age 36 now, I would be cautious about paying full price for him next year.

THE BAT X nearly nailed Nick Castellanos’ wOBA, which partially rebounded after his weak 2022. He still fell a bit short of his career mark, but it’s a good sign that 2022 was the fluke rather than the beginning of a decline. Castellanos’ strikeout rate did jump to the second highest mark of his career, while his walk rate remained in the low-to-mid 5% range for the second straight seasons. However, his power rebounded, as his ISO returned to the .200 plateau, just above his career average, while his HR/FB rate rose back into double digits, actually finishing at the third highest mark of his career. I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of 2022 again and feel comfortable believing his 2023 level should be maintained in the near future.