2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Stolen Base Forecasts, Part 2

Yesterday, I pivoted the 2023 projection showdown pitting THE BAT X against Steamer to stolen bases. These were the hitters THE BAT X was more bullish on for steals than Steamer. Now let’s find out who Steamer is more bullish on than THE BAT X for stolen bases, given a constant 650 plate appearances.

Steamer’s bullishness wasn’t as grand as THE BAT X, so the projection differences are narrower. Interestingly, from the 199 hitters included in the comparison, the two systems forecast identical total stolen bases per 650 PAs. So it’s not as if Steamer is projecting fewer and therefore the bullish individual player differences are less. It all ends up evening out once you get past the outliers.

After getting traded to the Royals mid-season, prospect Drew Waters made his MLB debut, getting his feet wet with 109 PAs. It was a very solid debut, as he posted a .347 wOBA, driven by power, a high BABIP, and willingness to take a walk. However, he failed to even attempt a steal, after swiping 18 bases in 353 PAs at Triple-A, and stealing 28 bases in 2021. The stolen base pace discrepancy is pretty clearly driven by THE BAT X’s bearishness on Waters’ hitting, as it forecasts the lowest OBP of any of the systems, by far. I’m guessing a lot of that is due to Waters’ xwOBA overperformance, but as mentioned in previous showdowns, it’s a small sample and I think THE BAT X is too heavily weighing a rookies’ small sample Statcast data. I’d side with Steamer here, making Waters a nice sleeper in OBP leagues.

Vaughn Grissom enjoyed a solid cup of coffee with the Braves, doing everything you’d hope from both a real and fantasy baseball perspective. The five steals were in line with his minor league record, so the question is whether he could repeat that .353 OBP to give him a similar number of opportunities again. Steamer is a bit more bullish on Grissom’s OBP than THE BAT X, but not dramatically so. I see no reason to believe he’ll swipe the single digit bases THE BAT X forecasts in just under 500 PAs, so once again, I’ll lean closer to Steamer. I think the speed is more bankable than the home run power, as his maxEV and Barrel% are unimpressive and probably don’t support a mid-teen HR/FB rate, which is higher than he posted at both High-A and Double-A.

It’s always an educated guess when projecting foreign players coming over to the Majors. We have another case in Masataka Yoshida, who signed with the Red Sox from Japan. None of the systems expect him to make a major contribution in steals, but where he ultimately lands will certainly affect his fantasy value. Steamer is far and away most bullish on his OBP, projecting both the highest walk rate and lowest strikeout rate among systems. On the other hand, THE BAT X is most bearish on his OBP, as it projects the lowest BABIP. He has posted a career BABIP of .326 in Japan, and never below .307 in a single season. Obviously, you can’t assume a 1:1 translation, but Japanese league averages have tended to fluctuate close to MLB averages.

That said, he has averaged a 154.8 PA/SB mark over his career and a 122.1 mark excluding his first two seasons when he stole less frequently. That equates to 4.2 and 5.3 steals over 650 PAs, which are closer to Steamer’s projection. However, steals are a bit more frequent in Japan than in the Majors. So, I think I’m going to lean toward a middle ground here, probably closer to Steamer, but more like four steals, instead of five. Calling for a .388 OBP to get to those five steals is asking for a lot as well. But man, if he reaches there, he’s going to be a star in OBP leagues.

It’s a surprise to see the veteran DJ LeMahieu appear here, as Steamer projects just over double the number of steals as THE BAT X. The last time LeMahieu stole fewer than three bases was back in 2012, and that came in just 247 PAs. Some of the reason here is OBP forecasts differences again, as THE BAT X is low man on the totem pole, while Steamer is most bullish. THE BAT X is projecting the highest strikeout rate among all systems, and actually LeMahieu’s highest strikeout rate since 2015! That’s pretty bold, and quite the call if right. I see little reason to think LeMahieu is suddenly going to swipe just two-three bases all season, but am more apt to go with four and change than five and change like Steamer.