2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Runs Scored Forecasts, Part 2, A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed THE BAT X’s runs scored favorites, as part of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting their projections against Steamer’s forecasts. Now let’s find out how Steamer’s runs scored favorites ended up performing.

It’s a clean sweep for THE BAT X! Today’s 6-0 record added to yesterday’s 4-2 record has made THE BAT X 10-2 on runs scored projections for the 12 players that were compared to Steamer. That’s quite impressive, even given the tiny sample size of players. Let’s talk specifics now.

What’s really interesting is that Masataka Yoshida was actually a THE BAT X RBI favorite, but now appears as the biggest Steamer runs scored favorite! What this suggests to me is a different lineup spot assumption. Perhaps THE BAT X assumed a spot closer to the middle of the batting order, while Steamer assumed one atop the order. The lineup spot he ended up recording the most PAs was cleanup, but the second most was second. Still, since the rest of his PAs came batting third and then fifth through sixth, his lineup spots definitely tilted toward RBI, rather than runs scored, potential. As a result, THE BAT X was significantly closer here. Though part of the reason for that is because Yoshida’s OBP really disappointed at just .338, when the most pessimistic projection (THE BAT X!) was still bullish at .363.

Ty France was a surprising name to find second on this list and his actual 650 PA runs scored total finished almost perfectly in between the two forecasts. Amazingly, I hit it on the head with my original evaluation of the projections:

…but I do think Steamer’s projection is a bit too high. I think he’ll finish in between the two forecasts, but maybe a tad closer to Steamer.

I think what I’m most impressed with here is that somehow, some way, THE BAT X called France’s power collapsing. It was by far forecasting the lowest ISO at .137, while he had never posted a mark below .154, and the next lowest was .155 from sister system THE BAT. Sure enough, his ISO plunged even further to .116. I’m not sure how that happened given a strong 112.7 MPH maxEV, highest FB% in a full season of his career, and Barrel% just above his career average. His xSLG was significantly above his actual SLG, so I’m tempted to say that France was severely unlucky on the power results front this year and perhaps THE BAT X’s call wasn’t as much a loss of skill as it was just bad fortune. An extra eight home runs to push him to match the 20 he hit in 2022 would have bumped his runs scored pace to almost perfectly match Steamer’s forecast.

After a massive breakout in 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, MJ Melendez has now disappointed two seasons in a row, posting identical .310 wOBA marks. Driving the disappointment are ISO marks settling in between .163 and .176, after he posted marks above .300 in 2021. Somehow, he has only averaged an 11.4% HR/FB rate, despite a 113.2 MPH maxEV and double digit Barrel%. It’s not just his pitcher friendly home park holding him back either, as his power metrics are a bit higher at home than on the road. Since there was no improvement offensively, Melendez fell well short of the more bullish Steamer and even missed THE BAT X’s more bearish forecast. Since he played just 10 games at catcher, he lost his eligibility there in most leagues and will only be outfield eligible. That makes me lose interest in mixed leagues as I would be very interested in buying in cheaply in all league sizes and formats if he was still catcher eligible.

Tony Kemp was another odd name to find here and he ended up finishing in between the two projections, but closer to THE BAT X. He actually posted the best strikeout rate of his career and a mark in single digits for the first time, but a putrid .221 BABIP, the lowest mark of his career, offset the benefit of more balls in play. It resulted in just a .303 OBP, his lowest since a partial season in 2019. What’s amazing is that he still managed to finish within the projections and not far below, because not only did he post the lowest wOBA since his small sample 2016 debut, but the Athletics scored the fewest runs in baseball. It wasn’t even close actually as they were the only team to score fewer than 600 runs. And yet Kemp still managed to exceed THE BAT X’s pessimistic projection!

Vinnie Pasquantino has appeared on the showdown lists previously, so I’ll just rehash the fact that I love the skill set, but will remain cautious as he return from serious shoulder surgery. It’s incredible to see how low that runs scored pace was. Some of that was also due to an OBP that plunged to just .324, from .383 during his half season debut in 2022. Sure, his walk rate declined marginally, but it was mostly because his BABIP plummeted from .306 to .250 this year. He doesn’t exactly have an ideal BABIP profile given his high FB%, but I doubt he’s deserving of just a .250 mark. His .279 xBA is significantly higher than his actual .247 mark, suggesting it was mostly bad luck, at least according to Statcast. Both systems missed by a wide margin on the runs scored here.

It’s amazing that no matter how cloudy the playing time situation looks, DJ LeMahieu still managed to record more than 500 PAs. Anyhow, he also handily missed both runs scored projections and that was because he posted the lowest OBP since 2018. His .295 BABIP was marginally better than last year’s .285 mark, but still the second lowest of his career. And since his walk rate fell slightly after last year’s career high rate, the OBP was down. Oh, and I shouldn’t ignore the fact that his strikeout rate skyrocketed above 20% for the first time, coming in well above his last two seasons between 13% and 14%. His SwStk% still remained elite at just 6.8%, but that’s his highest mark since 2014. With no speed and a batting average that hasn’t even reached .270 in the last three years, he’s deep league material only.