2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Runs Scored Forecasts, Part 2

Yesterday, I listed and discussed six hitters who THE BAT X was significantly more bullish on for runs scored than Steamer. Let’s now find out who Steamer’s runs scored favorites are compared to THE BAT X.

Masataka Yoshida tops the list of Steamer favorites, as the former Japanese league hitter figures to open the season as the Red Sox leadoff hitter. Steamer is significantly more bullish on Yoshida’s walk rate, forecasting the highest mark among systems. Furthermore, it’s most bullish on his strikeout rate, as the only system projecting a single digit mark. On the other hand, THE BAT X is most bearish on his BABIP, as the only mark under .300. All those differences results in a much higher OBP projection by Steamer. The ISO and home run projections are close enough that the huge 0.024 difference in OBP explains the majority of the runs scored discrepancy. I love Yoshida’s runs scored potential at the top of the Red Sox lineup, but I think most/all of Steamer’s forecasts are essentially best case scenario. While I think he may very well perform better than THE BAT X is forecasting, I expect his runs scored to finish closer to its projection.

Ty France only scored 65 runs last year for a 69 runs pace over 650 PAs. He hit second for nearly all his PAs too, which is where he’s slotted to hit again this season. Because Steamer is projecting a slightly higher BABIP, which is actually second lowest among systems, with only THE BAT X lower, Steamer’s OBP projection is higher, but not by a significant margin. A big difference here is power, as THE BAT X is expecting France’s power to fall off a cliff to a career low, a mark way below all other systems. I don’t think that will happen, but I do think Steamer’s projection is a bit too high. I think he’ll finish in between the two forecasts, but maybe a tad closer to Steamer.

After a massive breakout between Double-A and Triple-A in 2021, MJ Melendez made his MLB debut after just 91 more PAs at Triple-A in 2022, despite those PAs being poor offensively. He ended up playing nearly a full season, but was pretty disappointing, posting just a .310 wOBA. He figures to lead off for the Royals, which should maximize his runs scored potential, though it does come on a weak offense. The two systems severely disagree on his strikeout rate, with Steamer far more bullish than any other system, while THE BAT X is in line with ZiPS. I see no reason to think he’ll see such an uptick in strikeout rate or such a significant improvement, so I’m kinda in the middle with his projected strikeout rate. Overall, THE BAT X is projecting the lowest wOBA (excluding THE BAT) among systems, while Steamer is second highest, well below ZiPS. I think I’m bullish here, as I lean closer to the bullishness that Steamer sees given Melendez’s huge 2021 breakout, which was fueled by a swing change.

Tony Kemp is another expected leadoff hitter, but for a weak offense. Steamer is more bullish on his BABIP, projecting a significant rebound off a low 2022 to a mark even higher than his career average. THE BAT X forecasts just a smidge of an increase over his 2022 mark, which seems a bit harsh. That results in a much higher projected OBP by Steamer, to essentially match his career mark. I don’t see why I would expect anything close to a .310 OBP, as he has shown capable of significantly better. It’s kind of sad that 650 PAs leading off might only result in 73 runs that Steamer is projecting, but I think that makes much more sense than the mere 61 by THE BAT X. He’ll probably be an undervalued, but pretty boring, asset in AL-Only leagues that use OBP.

Here’s Vinnie Pasquantino again, who has appeared multiples times on Steamer favorite lists compared to THE BAT X. Somehow, Pasquantino managed to maintain just a 55 runs scored pace over 650 PAs during his 2022 MLB debut, which is pretty pathetic given his elite .383 OBP. It just goes to show you how weak that Royals offense was and also probably how slow Pasquantino was trotting around the bases. I can’t possibly imagine Pasquantino’s offense dropping to the level THE BAT X is forecasting, though I actually think its runs scored projection might prove closer. The Royals offense still stinks and is projecting to be a bottom 10 team in runs scored this year. Even if Pasquantino gets on base often again, the hitters behind him just aren’t good enough to knock him in as often as Steamer is projecting.

DJ LeMahieu is a surprise name on this list. He might not end up with a full-time job, as we’re projecting him as a reserve, who does play enough to accrue value in deep leagues, but with fewer than 500 PAs, won’t be a consideration in shallow mixed formats. Steamer expects a similar performance to his 2022, with a bit more power, while THE BAT X expects a dropoff back to where he finished in 2021, which was his lowest wOBA since 2014. THE BAT X is projecting the lowest walk rate among the systems and highest strikeout rate, which explains the discrepancy here. Aside from general aging effects, there’s nothing in his history to suggest he’ll suddenly post his highest strikeout rate since 2015 or that he’ll see a drop into a single digit walk rate after two straight marks well into double digits. I do think Steamer might be a bit too bullish on his ISO increase, but still lean toward the system as ultimately proving closer to LeMahieu’s runs scored pace.