2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer RBI Forecasts, Part 1

Let’s continue rolling on with the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in the various fantasy categories and discussing the players each system is more bullish on. Today, we shift over to runs batted in (RBI) and follow the same 650 plate appearance pace calculation I did when reviewing stolen base forecasts. RBI are driven by a couple of factors — the batter’s own offense, particularly his power/extra-base hit ability, his spot in the lineup (middle of the order, spots 3-5, are best), and the performance of the hitters ahead of him in the lineup (ideally, they are high OBP, but lower in power so they drive in other runners or themselves via the home run less frequently and leave more for the batter in question). Since one of those factors is power, driven significantly by home runs, there will be some similar names here to what made THE BAT X home run favorites list. That makes sense! So let’s get to it.

Note that Steamer projects more RBI from the 199 hitters I compared, so it’ll look like THE BAT X is less bullish than Steamer is on their top favorites. However, if used for fantasy, all that matters is the relative projections, as you’re comparing a hitter to all other hitters. So one system being more bullish doesn’t really affect valuations.

Kyle Schwarber set a new personal high in RBI last year with 94 despite hitting leadoff the majority of the season. That’s hard to do in that lineup spot! Trea Turner’s arrival likely pushes Schwarber down to second, which should boost his RBI opps. Still, hitting that 100+ mark THE BAT X is forecasting will be tough, even batting second, though it’s a lot easier when hitting 30+ homers. THE BAT X is most bullish on Schwarber’s power, forecasting the highest ISO of all the systems, plus the highest wOBA. I’m going to side with Steamer here as 109 RBI batting leadoff is extremely hard to do.

Wow, weird seeing Luis Arraez on this list, especially given the other names at the top. Arraez was traded to the marlins in Jan and Roster Resource figures he’ll hit leadoff for the team, where he mostly hit last year for the Twins. Both systems are forecasting identical ISO marks and near identical wOBA marks, so it’s curious what’s driving the big difference in RBI. The Marlins are projected to score the fifth fewest runs per game in baseball this year, so perhaps THE BAT X is simply expecting him to hit in a better lineup spot for RBI, I don’t know. Whatever the case, I’m going to learn toward the Steamer projection on this one. There also should be limited risk Arraez moves down to a better RBI spot since he’s far and away projected for the highest OBP among starters.

Coming off major surgery, Ronald Acuña Jr. showed disappointing power upon his return. THE BAT X is expecting a significantly greater rebound, easily forecasting the highest ISO among all systems. Interestingly, it’s the highest, while its sister system, THE BAT, is actually by far the most pessimistic on his ISO! The fact he underperformed his xSLG likely plays a role in the discrepancy. Acuña figures to once again hit leadoff for a team projected to score the most number of runs in baseball. It’s really impossible to tell how much, if any, he’ll rebound now another year removed from the surgery, and this mostly comes down to his power. If his power rebounds, THE BAT X should nail this, but if it doesn’t, even Steamer could be too optimistic.

Mike Trout hasn’t recorded 650 PAs since 2016, so remember THE BAT X isn’t actually forecasting him to record nearly 107 RBI, but just be at that pace for however long he lasts this season. That’s not easy for a number two hitter as mentioned above in Schwarber’s blurb, but if anyone could do it, it’s Trout. Oddly, the big discrepancy here is driven by Steamer’s serious pessimism on Trout’s ISO, forecasting just a .262 mark, much lower than the next lowest system at .288, and a mark that would represent his lowest since 2016. Since Steamer’s ISO looks bizarrely low, I would lean closer to THE BAT X here, but probably still expect a bit lower.

THE BAT X is projecting Mookie Betts for slightly better offense than Steamer, which plays a small role in the RBI difference here, but likely not all of it. Betts finished with an RBI total closer to Steamer’s projection last year in just 11 fewer PAs. The bottom of the Dodgers lineup looks suspect on the OBP front, but depends on whether rookie Miguel Vargas seizes the second base job and how he ends up performing. I’m going to lean closer to Steamer’s projection here, though think it’s slightly too bearish.

Masataka Yoshida finds his name on one of these showdown lists once again, and for good reason. Translations from foreign leagues to MLB are still just educated guesses, with the education part far less polished compared to hitting arriving from the minors, since we have a much smaller sample of hitters to use for historical league-to-league results. Yoshida figures to hit leadoff for the Red Sox, which should lead to a flurry of runs scored. Interestingly, THE BAT X is projecting a lower ISO and a much lower wOBA than Steamer here, yet forecasting a higher RBI rate! I am definitely going with Steamer here as an 81 RBI pace from a leadoff hitter with merely just above average power is not something I would ever bet on. Still, he looks like a great bet in OBP leagues.