2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Batting Average Forecasts, Part 1

Let’s continue the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in the various fantasy categories. Today, I’ll shift over to batting average, and identify and discuss the hitters that THE BAT X is more bullish on than Steamer. Unlike the counting stat showdowns, there’s no need to perform extra calculations to account for different PA forecasts, making it a whole lot easier! Batting average differences are primarily driven by disagreements over projected BABIP and/or strikeout rate, so let’s find out what’s fueling THE BAT X’s optimism.

I probably wouldn’t have guessed that Shohei Ohtani would appear atop a leaderboard of projection disagreements, as he feels like a veteran, and kind of is, having accumulated 2,272 MLB PAs so far. And except for the short 2020 season when he posted a .229 BABIP, he’s been above .300 every other season. Surprisingly, THE BAT X is far and away the most bullish on Ohtani’s BABIP, forecasting a .319 mark, versus just a .296 mark by Steamer, the lowest of the systems, but relatively close to ZiPS’ .299 projection. Ohtani’s Statcast xBA was only slightly higher than his actual mark, and historically, he has hovered around it, sometimes slightly beating it, sometimes slightly underperforming. His career BABIP of .321 is boosted by his first two seasons when he posted a .350+ mark, but that came with significantly higher LD% marks and lower FB% marks. He’s become a different hitter since, with a much greater fly ball tendency who hits fewer line drives. As is often the case, I would probably go with the middle ground here, something like ATC’s .306 BABIP forecast, as THE BAT X seems too bullish, while Steamer seems too bearish.

Willson Contreras moved from the Cubs’ Wrigley Field to the Cardinals’ Busch Stadium, which could cost him a bit of BABIP, as all of Busch’s hit type factors are lower than Wrigley’s. THE BAT X clearly loves Contreras’ Statcast data, as it’s BABIP forecast is even meaningfully above THE BAT’s, which doesn’t incorporate Statcast data. Interestingly, Steamer’s .281 projection is actually slightly above ZiPS, so this is more a matter of THE BAT X being on its own island than Steamer being super bearish. Contreras does own a career .307 BABIP, so it’s not like THE BAT X is projecting a much higher than career average mark. However, he has posted sub-.300 marks over the past two seasons, as his low LD% just hasn’t led to above average marks anymore. Furthermore, Contreras has only posted a batting average of at least what THE BAT X is projecting once over the past five seasons, with sub-.250 marks in four of them. I hate to sound like a broken record, but once again I’m siding closer to ATC with a BABIP mark in the middle of THE BAT X and Steamer, and a batting average as well, though I might go with a mid-to-high .240 average, versus a .250 mark.

Will Smith is the second catcher in a row and more of the less established hitter I was expecting to find on this list. THE BAT X is forecasting Smith’s second highest BABIP in a season, as he’s posted a .294 mark over just 114 at-bats back in 2020, but nothing above .276 in any other season. Steamer seems surprisingly bearish though, with a forecast that would match a career low. As an extreme fly ball hitter, he owns an interesting batted ball distribution, as he somehow manages to avoid pop-ups, while also hitting line drives at an above average clip. Still, all those flies makes it difficult to even reach a league average BABIP. Unless that changes, I find it too optimistic to expect a near league average BABIP like THE BAT X is projecting. However, why is Steamer so bearish?! ATC to the rescue again! No wonder the system finishes at or near the top in every accuracy contest over the last couple of years.

As per my investigation after J.D. Martinez signed with the Dodgers, his BABIP might take a hit moving out of hit friendly Fenway Park, but he hasn’t really benefited from Fenway historically, so perhaps the move won’t have much of an impact. All projections do see him posting a significantly lower BABIP than last year and his career mark, but THE BAT X is most optimistic of the system, while Steamer is most pessimistic. In addition, THE BAT X is projecting the lowest strikeout rate among the systems, while Steamer is projecting the highest. THE BAT X is generally in line with his history, though a bit surprising it’s not projecting an increase given his age. On the other hand, Steamer is forecasting his highest strikeout rate since 2017. This is a really tough call given the park switch and his age, but I would tend to lean a bit more bearish here. However, I think Steamer is a bit too bearish!

Joey Votto used to be a BABIP monster given his pristine batted ball distribution, heavy on line drives and light on pop-ups. Recently, he has become more of a fly ball hitter, is now hitting line drives at a much closer rate as the rest of the league, and has BABIP has settled below .300 for three straight seasons. THE BAT X is actually not the most bullish on his BABIP, as it’s just below ZiPS, and the gap between its forecast and Steamer’s isn’t as large as the players above him on the list. But combined with a significantly lower strikeout rate projection, compared to Steamer’s highest forecast, it all adds up to a meaningful batting average difference. Votto’s strikeout rate has jumped the last two years, as his SwStk% returned to double digits for the first time since all the way back in 2010. It’s definitely an age thing, but that doesn’t mean the trend continues. As most lefties do, Votto pulls a higher rate of his grounders than the league. His BABIP on grounders has been sub-.200 for four straight seasons now, below the 2022 league average of .235. The rule changes relating to the shift could help him here and I would probably also favor his strikeout rate not continuing higher, and rebounding a bit. So for a change, I’m going to side closer to THE BAT X here.

Finally, Nick Castellanos suffered a power outage last season, but his BABIP was normal, despite losing line drives and hitting a higher rate of pop-ups. All projections see him suffering a decline in BABIP to below his 2022 and career marks. However, THE BAT X is most optimistic, while Steamer is most pessimistic. Castellanos is young enough to think this was more likely a fluke off year and he’ll get his swing back to normal, so again, I’ll lean toward THE BAT X’s more bullish projection, which itself is still underwhelming compared to his history.