2021 Review: Hitter Pull FB% Decliners

Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters whose pulled fly ball percentage (PFB) increased the most versus 2020. A majority of those hitters also boosted their HR/FB rates, which is no coincidence. Now let’s check out the other side of the coin, those hitters whose PFB declined the most in 2021 compared to 2020. Did their HR/FB rates slide as well? Let’s find out.

Pull FB% Decliners
Player 2020 HR/FB 2021 HR/FB 2020 Pull FB% 2021 Pull FB% Pull FB% Diff
Eric Hosmer 22.5% 11.3% 35.0% 14.8% -20.2%
Austin Nola 14.6% 3.6% 45.0% 25.0% -20.0%
Nick Ahmed 11.4% 4.5% 37.5% 18.1% -19.4%
Mitch Moreland 23.3% 15.4% 35.7% 18.0% -17.7%
Brandon Crawford 17.8% 15.2% 42.9% 25.5% -17.4%
Cesar Hernandez 6.4% 13.9% 39.1% 22.7% -16.4%
Michael Brantley 11.4% 6.9% 29.0% 14.0% -15.1%
Mauricio Dubon 8.2% 10.0% 32.3% 18.4% -13.8%
Byron Buxton 26.5% 28.8% 44.4% 30.9% -13.5%
Brian Anderson 26.8% 11.5% 27.6% 14.3% -13.3%
Trent Grisham 20.0% 12.0% 41.7% 28.4% -13.3%
Hunter Renfroe 19.5% 18.0% 42.9% 29.9% -13.0%
Gleyber Torres 7.1% 6.9% 28.1% 15.8% -12.3%
Population Average 15.0% 13.7% 24.5% 26.1% 1.6%

Out of the 13 hitters whose PFB fell by at least 12%, 10 of them also saw a decline in HR/FB rate.

Eric Hosmer was the biggest decliner, but just like we saw on the surger list, his appearance here had more to do with his fluky mark in 2020 then a dramatic change in approach in 2021. From 2015-2019, his highest PFB was only 21%, and the other seasons he was in the mid-teens, and even the high single digits. So his 2021 was completely out of character. He merely reverted right back to where he always was in 2021. His skills didn’t change much this year, it was really the change in ball that led to a HR/FB rate collapse despite the similar underlying skills. With consistently low FB% marks, he needs to keep that HR/FB rate above 20% or he’s going to be a real negative in home runs for a corner guy.

Cesar Hernandez posted a career best HR/FB rate, but it wasn’t because he went pull happy. Instead, he posted career best marks in average distance and Barrel FB%. Since that was also accompanied by an increase in FB%, it seems pretty intentional to swing hard and for the fences. Impressively, it didn’t lead to an increased strikeout rate, though his SwStk% did jump to its highest mark since 2015. Since the speed is gone and no one knows if he could repeat this power display, he seems like a poor bet this year. Then again, after hitting .232, I doubt he’s atop any target lists.

In between injuries, Byron Buxton has quietly become a power monster. While his PFB has jumped around due to small sample sizes, it has remained well above league average. But the key here is his exploding average distance and Barrel FB%. The former jumped above 300 feet for the first time in 2020 and stayed there in 2021, while the latter surged to 38.2% in 2021 (versus just a 23.1% league average), nearly double his previous career high mark set in 2017. His plate discipline remains weak, but we’re all eagerly awaiting a full season from this new version. His last three seasons have given us 684 plate appearances, which is essentially one full healthy season. In those PAs, he has walloped 42 homers and swiped 25 bases! Oh, and he’s hit .277 as well, so he wouldn’t be a drag on batting average. That’s a first round pick.

Out of nowhere, Brian Anderson posted a mid-20% HR/FB rate in 2020, but alas, he couldn’t keep it up in 2021. His PFB fell back after spiking in 2020, while his average distance also declined. I would gander that his 2020 will easily prove to be the highest HR/FB rate of his career.

I touched on Trent Grisham in previous articles, but his 2021 metrics look a lot like his 2019 metrics, suggesting that maybe his 2020 performance was the fluke. I’m still not willing to totally bet that though as he battled injuries this year, but this is a guy whose power only really blossomed at Triple-A in 2019, and that was over a tiny 134 at-bat sample. It’s very possible that was the fluke, and he’s more of the low-teens HR/FB rate guy we have seen and that his 2019 Double-A performance would suggest. Don’t forget, he posted single digit HR/FB rates from 2015-2018 previously, so he hasn’t owned such power potential his entire professional career.

Hunter Renfroe’s PFB jumped above 40% for two straight seasons before dropping back into the high 20% range. His Barrel FB% did hit a career high and now he’ll get to show off his power in another solid park for right-handed home runs.

Gleyber Torres has to be one of the league’s biggest enigmas. Posting a high teen and then 20%+ HR/FB rate over his first two seasons, he has posted just mid-single digit marks in his two seasons since. We could have yelled small sample in 2020, but 2021 was close to a full season and yet he finished with a career worst 6.9% mark. We can’t blame his PFB in 2020, but it was certainly partly to blame in 2021, as it was nearly cut in half. The other issue here is as simple as can be — he’s simply not barreling his flies as often as he had been, and in 2021, his flies and liners didn’t travel as far. That doesn’t help us get to the heart of the problem, as it simply describes what we already know. So the question is — why? I have to imagine that the 25-year-old and the Yankees will figure it out and while I’m not sure he’ll be back into the high teens or 20% range (xHR/FB suggests he was lucky during his first two seasons), he has to rebound at least somewhat from here.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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Broken Batmember
2 years ago

But didn’t the majority of this group listed actually increase their batting averages ? Less pull = using more of the entire field?

hebrewmember
2 years ago
Reply to  Broken Bat

you’re not studying pulled fly ball percentages because you’re looking into batting averages