2020 Pod vs Steamer — SB Upside, A Review

Today, we review the last of my hitting projections comparisons between my 2020 Pod Projections and Steamer. We move along to stolen base, where like I did for home runs, I turned it into a ratio, this time of plate appearances. That way playing time forecasts won’t influence the comparison. We begin with my review of the stolen base upside guys. Do note that I seem to be consistently lower on stolen base forecasts than Steamer, so this list isn’t very long.

Woooo, I sported a winning record of 3-2! Ha, the sample size here is tiny, and the sample size of PAs among the hitters listed is tiny too. That means, the winner column is meaningless, but I like celebrating at every opportunity.

Jarrod Dyson has been a consistent source of stolen bases, and almost nothing else, for years and years. Probably due to age, Steamer was not a fan of Dyson’s stolen base power this seeason. Amazingly, not only was my more optimistic stance warranted, Dyson even blew past my bullish forecast. Of course, it’s all pretty meaningless considering Dyson recorded just 66 plate appearances all season! However, his steals total would have been cut in half, from six to three, in order for Steamer’s projection to be closer, so that makes me feel like I did earn this win. Even more crazy? Dyson managed to steal that many bases despite a putrid .231 OBP! Imagine if he got on base at a .300+ clip like his career average.

Jon Berti was a surprise source of steals in 2019, as he accrued about a half season’s worth of plate appearances, filling in all over the field for the Marlins. Heading into his age 30 season, Steamer clearly didn’t buy it, both due to age, and also a projected decline in OBP, moreso than I had projected. Instead, Berti got on base even more by nearly doubling his walk rate, and he stole bases at an even greater clip than even my more bullish forecast had predicted. Depending on the team’s current view of Isan Diaz, Berti could enter the season as the de facto starting second baseman and perhaps offer some nice profit potential.

Oh Franchy Cordero, appearing all over my lists, but never playing enough to conclude anything. This time, it was only 42 plate appearances. Stay healthy already! Heck, stay healthy enough to even record 200 plate appearances, let alone a full season.

It figures that I missed on the only player who actually did play a full season, and hit on the guys who barely played. Steamer perfectly nailed Starling Marte’s PA/SB rate and it wasn’t an OBP thing. Marte posted a near identical mark to 2019 and in looking at my original comments, the two projection systems forecasted an identical OBP. So Marte simply stole bases at a slightly lesser clip. Whether it was age or just a new team philosophy (two new teams!), we don’t know.

Steamer’s other win was Harrison Bader, who finished with a PA/SB in between the two projections, but closer to Steamer’s. Bader’s OBP rebounded, barely exceeding his career high set in 2018, but that didn’t result in more steals. Given his fielding prowess and his decent bat with potential for more if he cuts down on the strikeouts, it’s a surprise his playing time hasn’t been more solidified.