2020 Pod vs Steamer — SB Downside, A Review

Today, I finish reviewing my hitter Pod Projections versus Steamer projections comparisons, ending with the stolen base downside guys. These are the hitters who I forecasted a significantly higher PA/SB rate than Steamer. Let’s see how they ended up performing.

It’s interesting that all of them are youngsters with limited MLB experience, plus a foreign player making his MLB debut. That’s not too surprising, as I tend to be a little conservative projecting young players’ steals, as you can never be sure how their minor league attempt rate will translate. Either way, yuck! It was a clean sweep by Steamer when comparing PA/SB projections to actual. Although if you go by the Actual SB – 650 PA column, I would have garnered two wins.

Bo Bichette’s PA/SB finished almost perfectly in the middle of our two forecasts, which is quite the feat considering he played only half the same due to injury so the already small sample of a season was even smaller for him. I had originally considered his lower MLB debut rate compared to his minor league rate, which resulted in a less optimistic projection. If Bichette wasn’t as willing to steal during his 212 PA debut in 2019 than in the minors, why would I expect him to decide to run more, and closer to his minor league days, the following season? Steamer weighed his minor league rate more heavily. In the end, we were both partially right. What I will note is Bichette’s HP to 1B mark is nowhere as good as you might expect from someone you think will be a big basestealer. So I will likely still project him falling well short of his minor league PA/SB rates.

Ha, Jake Fraley only recorded 29 PAs, which is why he destroyed both projections. He hasn’t shown anything yet to prove he’ll succeed at the MLB level, but the Mariners don’t seem to have any patience to find out for sure. Giving him 70 PAs over two seasons and then giving up on him, if that’s what they end up doing, is pretty silly.

Steamer was slightly closer to Sam Hilliard’s PA/SB, but my projection resulted in a slightly closer actual stolen base total over 650 PA. To be honest, I’m not sure how that math is working, so please enlighten me if you can figure it out (same for Bichette)! Once again, Hilliard finished almost exactly in between the two projections. What’s crazy is he managed to do so with just a .272 OBP. He would have obliterated my projection if he posted a more respectable rate.

Man, do I have to talk about Luis Robert again? Steamer almost nailed his projection, while as usual, I was being too conservative. I was scared away by the big dropoff in Roberts’ PA/SB upon moving to Triple-A, while Steamer may have weighed previous seasons more heavily than I did.

I take pride in the mathematical way I try to project foreign players, turning all their counting stats into ratios, and then comparing those ratios to the foreign league average. I then translate those to MLB rates. With all that said, it’s still a big guess how the particular player, in this case Shogo Akiyama, acclimates to MLB. It’s obviously not as easy as saying he stole bases 25% more often than the foreign league average, so he’ll do so in MLB. Given his age, I’m really shocked he stole bases so frequently and his HP to 1B time is so impressive. I had no idea he was actually that fast. Now if only he would show some power!