2019 Outfield Rankings
I think we’ve been ranking outfielders incorrectly as an industry. A straight 1-to-whatever list loses some value after the top 50 or so. Once you’ve got your first 2-3 OFs, the last few are often strategically picked to attack categories instead of just going with best available.
Say you need a speed asset for that 4th OF, but the best one is the 12th ranked guy on your remaining board, do you just take him knowing it fills the need or do you internally justify taking someone higher because he’s more talented even though he doesn’t really help the team construction? I’m sure some of you have no issue just taking the needed player, but plenty of us waffle on those decisions and it can cost us in the end.
I’ve ranked my top 50 in order of how I’m drafting them for the most part. I do have some clusters of speedsters and I’d only take one from a cluster even if the others were available the next time I was looking at outfield. I have Dee Gordon and Mallex Smith at 40 and 41, but I’m not going to roster both. Beyond that, it’s a straight draft list. After 50, I broke 106 OFs down by standout skill. Within each skill tier, the guys are slotted in my preferred order. The tiers are most self-explanatory, but just to cover my bases, here they are:
AVG – Player offers a strong batting average (usually .280+… maybe .270+ for some later ones). He may bring other assets to the table but strengthening your AVG is the goal with these picks.
PWR – I told you they were self-explanatory. These guys are capable of or have already shown the ability to club 25+ HRs (30+ at the top end).
PWR/SPD – These guys can bring a double/double (10+ HR & SB) to the table with enough playing time.
SPD – These guys have 20+ SB upside.
TIME/UTIL– Most of this group doesn’t have a standout skill and even if they do, it’s on the fringes of the qualifications for the groups above so their real asset is playing time. I grouped these two together as there were only four utility guys (players with at least 3 eligible positions) and their ability to bounce around helps them get playing time.
TIERED GROUPS
Each tier is grouped in order of preference. After the top 50, you should fill in your OF based on need as opposed to a straight draft list.
| PLAYER | TEAM | ELIG.* | AGE | GROUP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Eaton | WAS | 30 | AVG | |
| Corey Dickerson | PIT | 29 | AVG | |
| Jose Martinez | STL | 1B | 30 | AVG |
| Matt Kemp | CIN | 34 | AVG | |
| Adam Frazier | PIT | 2B | 27 | AVG |
| Nick Markakis | ATL | 35 | AVG | |
| Willie Calhoun | TEX | 24 | AVG | |
| Albert Almora Jr. | CHC | 24 | AVG | |
| Alex Verdugo | LAD | 22 | AVG | |
| Lonnie Chisenhall | PIT | 30 | AVG | |
| Gerardo Parra | SF | 32 | AVG | |
| Austin Dean | MIA | 25 | AVG | |
| Jon Jay | CWS | 34 | AVG | |
| Jordan Luplow | CLE | 25 | AVG | |
| Melky Cabrera | PIT | 34 | AVG | |
| Ben Gamel | MIL | 27 | AVG | |
| Yusniel Diaz | BAL | 22 | AVG | |
| Alex Kirilloff | MIN | 21 | AVG | |
| Teoscar Hernandez | TOR | 26 | PWR | |
| Hunter Renfroe | SD | 27 | PWR | |
| Randal Grichuk | TOR | 27 | PWR | |
| Franmil Reyes | SD | 23 | PWR | |
| Kyle Schwarber | CHC | 26 | PWR | |
| Trey Mancini | BAL | 1B | 27 | PWR |
| Jorge Soler | KC | 27 | PWR | |
| Christin Stewart | DET | 25 | PWR | |
| Jay Bruce | SEA | 1B | 31 | PWR |
| Chad Pinder | OAK | 26 | PWR | |
| Eric Thames | MIL | 1B | 32 | PWR |
| Daniel Palka | CWS | 27 | PWR | |
| Scott Schebler | CIN | 28 | PWR | |
| Joc Pederson | LAD | 26 | PWR | |
| Kole Calhoun | LAA | 31 | PWR | |
| Billy McKinney | TOR | 24 | PWR | |
| Jorge Bonifacio | KC | 26 | PWR | |
| Mac Williamson | SF | 28 | PWR | |
| Derek Dietrich | CIN | 1B | 29 | PWR |
| Nick Williams | PHI | 25 | PWR | |
| Adam Duvall | ATL | 30 | PWR | |
| Clint Frazier | NYY | 24 | PWR | |
| Carlos Gonzalez | FA | 33 | PWR | |
| Jake Cave | MIN | 26 | PWR | |
| Yoenis Cespedes | NYM | 33 | PWR | |
| Mark Canha | OAK | 30 | PWR | |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | 21 | PWR | |
| Ryan Braun | MIL | 35 | PWR/SPD | |
| Cedric Mullins II | BAL | 24 | PWR/SPD | |
| Chris Taylor | LAD | SS | 28 | PWR/SPD |
| Gregory Polanco | PIT | 27 | PWR/SPD | |
| Tyler O’Neill | STL | 23 | PWR/SPD | |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | 22 | PWR/SPD | |
| Ian Happ | CHC | 3B | 24 | PWR/SPD |
| Jake Bauers | CLE | 1B | 23 | PWR/SPD |
| Steven Souza Jr. | ARI | 29 | PWR/SPD | |
| Franchy Cordero | SD | 24 | PWR/SPD | |
| Bradley Zimmer | CLE | 26 | PWR/SPD | |
| D.J. Stewart | BAL | 25 | PWR/SPD | |
| Mikie Mahtook | DET | 29 | PWR/SPD | |
| Jake Marisnick | HOU | 28 | PWR/SPD | |
| Jo Adell | LAA | 19 | PWR/SPD | |
| Delino DeShields | TEX | 26 | SPD | |
| Greg Allen | CLE | 26 | SPD | |
| Billy Hamilton | KC | 28 | SPD | |
| Leonys Martin | CLE | 31 | SPD | |
| Kevin Kiermaier | TB | 28 | SPD | |
| Kevin Pillar | TOR | 30 | SPD | |
| Harrison Bader | STL | 24 | SPD | |
| Manuel Margot | SD | 24 | SPD | |
| Lewis Brinson | MIA | 25 | SPD | |
| Brett Gardner | NYY | 35 | SPD | |
| Michael Taylor | WAS | 27 | SPD | |
| Steven Duggar | SF | 25 | SPD | |
| Austin Hays | BAL | 23 | SPD | |
| Raimel Tapia | COL | 25 | SPD | |
| Adam Engel | CWS | 27 | SPD | |
| JaCoby Jones | DET | 27 | SPD | |
| Dustin Fowler | OAK | 24 | SPD | |
| Roman Quinn | PHI | 26 | SPD | |
| Keon Broxton | NYM | 29 | SPD | |
| Alen Hanson | SF | 2B | 26 | SPD |
| Chris Owings | KC | 27 | SPD | |
| Brett Phillips | KC | 24 | SPD | |
| Tony Kemp | HOU | 27 | SPD | |
| Derek Fisher | HOU | 25 | SPD | |
| Phillip Ervin | CIN | 26 | SPD | |
| Joey Rickard | BAL | 28 | SPD | |
| Daz Cameron | DET | 21 | SPD | |
| Cameron Maybin | SF | 32 | SPD | |
| Oscar Mercado | CLE | 23 | SPD | |
| Shin-Soo Choo | TEX | 36 | TIME | |
| Brian Anderson | MIA | 3B | 25 | TIME |
| Odubel Herrera | PHI | 27 | TIME | |
| Avisail Garcia | TB | 27 | TIME | |
| Josh Reddick | HOU | 32 | TIME | |
| Dexter Fowler | STL | 32 | TIME | |
| Adam Jones | ARI | 33 | TIME | |
| Jason Heyward | CHC | 29 | TIME | |
| Ben Zobrist | CHC | 2B | 37 | TIME |
| Curtis Granderson | MIA | 37 | TIME | |
| Robbie Grossman | OAK | 29 | TIME? | |
| Tyler Naquin | CLE | 27 | TIME | |
| Alex Gordon | KC | 35 | TIME | |
| Marwin Gonzalez | MIN | SS/2B/1B | 30 | UTIL |
| Hernan Perez | MIL | 2B/3B/SS | 28 | UTIL |
| Yairo Munoz | STL | SS/2B/3B | 24 | UTIL |
| Enrique Hernandez | LAD | 2B/SS | 27 | UTIL |
Would Adam Eaton have been #51? I feel like he’s so tough to rely on for AVG, since the ABs are rarely there.
Yes, I literally flopped him and Mazara four times before posting. Dickerson isn’t 52, though. It’s just coincidental that Eaton was my 51st and then topped the tier group.
Word. Thanks Paul.
Love idea behind the list. Outfield is weird in that it’s sort of deep but since most leagues, as far as know, have each team roster five, it can get kind of shallow around the time you’re trying to fill the fourth or fifth slot. Compare to say SS and 2B, both of those positions are so deep that your third guy is generally somebody who not that long would have been your top guy drafted fairly early.
JDM is undoubtedly awesome, but with so many stud OF’s in their prime ages ranked right around him I’d have him behind Yelich, Judge, Harper, and Acuna. Ditto for Blackmon and Marte.
In dynasty, sure. But naw, you want JD > Acuna or Harper for 2019 no doubt.
For 2019 too. Busting a 1st round pick is a surefire way to lose ground in the standings, and the best way to bust a 1st round pick is to take a player in his 30’s instead of a player who is entrenched in his prime age.
What is the risk with Martinez? His profile couldn’t be stronger. Not sure I can muster any legit concern for him.
He’s a DH, so less likely to be injured and he bats in the best spot in one of the best lineups. I would not consider him a bust likely pick.
I’d like to see some data to match this assertion. Because I sure haven’t seen any evidence that over-30 first rounders are more likely to bust (regardless of definition) than under-30s.
In fact, I’m pretty sure the younger guys are more likely to bust because we’re reacting to small samples.
21 year old Acuña is in his prime???
You’re actually proving my point. Acuna has already proven that he’s capable of producing value on par with JDM, and he is in fact not even yet in his prime.
A 31-year-old power hitter who DHs most of the time seems pretty safe to me, as these things go.
JDM is undoubtedly awesome. But taking him ahead of younger players who produce similar numbers is paying for the upside (that he repeats a career-year 2018) without accounting for the attrition rate of 30+ year old players. No profile is safe from age or attrition except future HOF players. Getting JDM’s 2015 in the first round is busting the pick.
Where would you rank Khris Davis in leagues where he is eligible?
By Ozuna & Jimenez
Either Buxton will eventually prove you and everyone right or be the strikeout machine sword that everyone falls upon.
Eh, I’m not even particularly high on him.
No love for Runs? I feel like it’s the most overlooked category and OF has some undervalued guys who are hitting 1-2 and in line for 85+ runs. Leonys Martin stands out for example.
Runs are very important and I give them a lot of attention when drafting, but they aren’t as skill-based as power/speed/hitting. Plus, the best runs players are often just the best players so they’re usually gone earlier. If Leonys leads off, he’s gonna be nice!
Does Austin Hays have secret speed?
Not so secret – https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/austin-hays-669720?stats=statcast-r-running-mlb
I feel like it is misleading to label him as a speed guy though. The sprint speed leaderboard can be useful for seeing whether a guy could potentially gain some steals, but Hays posted that 28.9 m/s speed in 2017 pre-ankle surgery and has a total of 15 career steals. He could end up being someone like Avisail Garcia (29.0 m/s last year, 26 career steals) who is fast in straight lines but for whatever reason just doesn’t run.
I grabbed Christin Stewart for $1 at the end of my 12tm auction based on your talking about him on the podcast, but I’m looking at his projections and thinking I’d be better off with someone boring / safer like Kemp or Markakis off the wire.
What do you think Stewart can do?
This being a 12 team league, there’s no real point to putting boring players on your bench. You can stream that. The rosy outcome for Stewart is something like .250/.350/.490 with 35 HR while batting heart of the lineup.
To clarify, that’s not the mean/median, it’s what you’re hoping for. Maybe the 80th percentile outcome?
That seems very good. Not 90+%? I agree w the sentiment in 12 men as that is how I would draft as well, but I also wouldn’t exactly call Kemp boring. The 4 times they played full squad with all their starters Kemp batted 3rd. Vs both lhp and rhp. It’s been Gennett, Votto, Kemp, Suarez, Puig. And while it doesn’t predict the future, if you can trade I like owning Kemp because he starts every year scorching seemingly
Blackmon at #6 worries me. He’s loosing bat speed and athleticism fast. It feels like he’s not that far away from turning into Seth Smith
I agree completely. Taking a player in his 30’s with glaring warning signs that he’s entering the downswing instead of younger players are projected to put up similar stats and are conversely on the upswing of their careers is just one way to open the door to tanking a season.
Can’t just ignore that he plays in the best park to mitigate his decline, though
Tom Boswell pulled some interesting stats in a recent article for teenage phenoms in their Age-20 season, and if history is a guide (given that he posted the highest OPS in history for a teenager), Soto could be in the discussion for NL MVP.
You left Wil Myers off your second chart of tiered players.
He’s 31 on the top 50!
oops. comment deleted.
Braun at 96 seems low.
He’s not at 96. It’s a top 50 list and then open to the category tiers
My bad.
Marte > Acuna?
Yeah, I think I’d take Acuna ahead of Marte also.
I’ve done a lot of NFBCs this year, and I am fading Jram hard this year for a number of reasons. My least favorite pick is 3rd in drafts, because I have a very tough decision. If it is a 12 man league it is fine, if its a league without an overall prize it is also fine, but a 15 man league with an overall prize makes it difficult. 1 and 2 are easy, but 3 is where I struggle. Preinjury I would always Lindor, but now I cannot do that. I would pass over Acuna and pick up JD or Arenado at 4-5-6-7-8 etc, but at the 3 spot I feel like I have to go Acuna. That might seem counterintuitive , but then my 2nd draft pick is 28 overall so in order to get the steals that I need to compete for overall I would need to grab Merrifield here and pass on whichever of the Nola Snell Bauer is still there, or grab a pitcher then reach for Mondesi at pick 33 which I also don’t like. So in closing, I like Acuna at 3, but not after that, ha.
But yea, I would take him over Marte 100x and twice on Sunday.
Blackmon over Bryce? The Rockies offense is probably less helpful than the Phillies for some rate stats, and Blackmon declined pretty hard last year.
Ya but Coors is way better than anywhere else ever.
Coors is great, but the Rockies still put up pretty weak numbers last year overall, and that was even with Story busting out and Arenado’s regular brilliance. The move to LF could potentially help Blackmon slow decline, but I am not gonna target him either way.
They scored the 7th-most runs last yr. I know their wRC+ was poor, but they still scored plenty.
Thanks for pumping these out Paul
Paul, this is a great format for ranking OFs!
Paul, where would you slide Nick Senzel in assuming he gets around 400 AB?
Thank you for this! This is such a cool article. Tyler O’Neil needs to be in the Cardinals’ OF this year.
Aren’t you concerned about Dahl’s inability to hit lefties and bottom 10% swinging strike rate?
He’s not locked into the lefty platoon after 66 PA. He’s had some success against ’em in the minors and some failures. As for the SwStr%, it’s protected a bit by Coors. Bottom line is I’m betting on Coors, the pop, and speed.
I don’t get it. You think Ben Zobrist is like the 8th least valuable outfielder to own? Disagree.
No, I think you’ve misunderstood the list structure. Notice how Zobrist doesn’t have a number rank by his name. After the Top 50, I chopped them up by skill and then ranked them there.
Adjust these for a CBS Points League….how large of a range would Bellinger have?
I’ve never understood the love for Benintendi, at least from a fantasy perspective. He’s improved vs left-handed pitching, but I don’t see a lot that he offers that you can’t get from Lorenzo Cain.
Thanks, Paul! Btw, we’re missing Khris Davis, the .247 guy?
nvmd, he didn’t play 20 games at OF 🙂
Correct me if I am wrong, Tony Kemp’s value is ALL playing time. He got listed as a spd guy, but a guy who can hit .300/10/25 in 600 ABs seems like more of a playing time question.
Oddly, he is so much more talented than Marwin Gonzalez (both offensively and defensively) yet serving in the same role with an almost carbon copy of last year’s team, we can’t seem to project 500 ABs.
Where is Kris Davis?