On a day that featured only eight games on the schedule, the only real closer intrigue took place in Cincinnati. In the first Reds game that provided a save opportunity since Raisel Iglesias (biceps) went on the 10-day disabled list on Wednesday, it looked as if Amir Garrett was primed to record his first career save. The lefty relieved David Hernandez with two outs in the top of the seventh inning and a 5-2 lead against the Pirates. He proceeded to get the next four outs, three of which came by way of strikeout.

Having used only 16 pitches to get those outs, Jim Riggleman brought Garrett out for the ninth inning to finish the game. Corey Dickerson put the first blemish on Garrett’s afternoon, singling on an 0-2 pitch, but then he appeared to get back on track, striking Jose Osuna out on three pitches. Then, with one swing, Garrett’s campaign to get the save took a blow when Austin Meadows turned on a 95 mph fastball that caught the inside of the plate and pulled it for a two-run homer. With the Reds’ lead carved down to one run, Jared Hughes took over and got the final two outs, as well as the save.
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Today’s blast from the past is brought to you by Benny Agbayani. Every broadcaster made sure you knew he is Hawaiian.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Faceball

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The Roto Riteup hopes you stay nimble…..

Face facts: you’re out. ? pic.twitter.com/MNq8N3w5AM

— MLB (@MLB) May 25, 2018

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Zack Godley enjoyed a surprise breakout season last year that the market bought into, making him a consistent top 35 starter in draft season. Once news of the humidor was finalized, he became even more appealing as we figured he’d be pitching half his games in an even better environment. After a thrashing at the hands of the Brewers on Wednesday (3.3 IP/6 ER), he’s up to 4.53 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 55.7 innings. Let’s take a look at the 28-year old righty through 10 starts and see what’s going on.

Usually we look immediately at velocity when a pitcher is struggling so let’s start there. It can be indicative of an injury, but even if it’s not signaling a health issue, it’s obviously better to have higher velocity in most cases. Godley’s is down across the board. His fastball velocity has dipped from 91.9 mph to 90.2 this year. There are also dips on all of his secondary pitches: -1.7 mph to 81.7 with the curveball, -1.1 to 88.8 with the cutter, and -2.6 to 81.4 with the change (though he barely used it last year and is using it even less this year at 5%).

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Mike Minor

A few days back, I released my latest pERA grades and Minor was projected for 3.47 ERA while his actual ERA (5.59) is two runs higher and one run higher than his FIP (4.41) and xFIP (4.32). His SIERA is the lowest at 3.85. Which metric should be believed?

Starting with the lucky pitcher trio (BABIP, HR/FB, LOB%), not one stat sticks out though each one is above average.

BABIP: .324
LOB%: 68%
HR/FB: 12.9%

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Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Zack Wheeler (New York Mets) – I know, I know, Wheeler is holding a 5.32 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and it’s terrifying to consider him. But he also has a 66.6% LOB rate, 23.1% soft contact, and a 23.6% K rate that hint at better days. He’s fanned at least seven in four of his last five games and maybe, just maybe, this turns into something a bit more stable.

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Earlier this week, I found most of Tanaka’s struggles occur with men-on-base. What I didn’t know if these differences were predictive or due for regression. After diving into the numbers, struggles with men on base aren’t exactly predictive except for those with extreme windups.

The narrative concept behind this study is that a pitcher has a windup talent level and a throwing from the stretch talent level. I’ve always thought Daniel Mengden’s great windup would keep hitters off guard.

He loses all the deception from the stretch. My theory has been borne out with a career 4.99 FIP with runners on base and 3.42 FIP with the bases empty. Joey Lucchesi is another pitcher with a unique windup and he has a 3.40 FIP with no runners on base but it jumps to 5.14 with runners on. The windup advantage for these two pitchers is an obvious item to point to when explaining their stats.

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Raisel Iglesias has been steady as the Reds’ closer, so speculating on his potential replacement has seemed like a largely intellectual exercise. Now that speculation could have some consequences for fantasy owners, as the Reds placed their closer on the 10-day disabled list with a strained left biceps.

Jim Riggleman has taken some of the guesswork away from us, as he has already cited Jared Hughes, Amir Garrett, Wandy Peralta and the just-activated Michael Lorenzen as possible replacement options. His lack of commitment to a single replacement makes it less attractive to speculate on any one reliever as a future source of saves. Riggleman’s comments about the nature and severity of Iglesias’ injury also suggest that he may not be out long, making it even less urgent to try to add one of the foursome. The interim manager told reporters that “Iglesias’ left biceps has been bothering him for some days. It’s just tender…Rather than continue to deal with it, we’re just going to DL him…”
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Hey! The Invitational starts at 6:10pm ET.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Best Division?

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Getting through a lineup three times is a bit of a lost art these days with both the rise of the bullpens and starters going 100% every at-bat from the jump which often drains the tank right around the time that batters are getting a third look. We often hear about the guys who struggle the third time through and we don’t always see those who are good at it highlighted for the success. Of course, the studs of the game do it well and that’s what makes them the studs, but there are definitely some surprises having TTT success. Let’s look at both ends of the spectrum today, starting with the duds.

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