2018 Top 100 Prospects: Fantasy Spin
Eric and Kiley have graciously taken the time to give us some of the best prospect content on the net, but today as prospect week continues I’ll provide a quick fantasy spin for each of the 2018 Top 100 prospects. The goal here is simply to each prospect’s grades and scouting reports and then translate those skills into “what could be” for fantasy context (for example where “upside” might represent an 80%+ outcome on a prospect’s potential).
2018 Top 100 Prospects: Fantasy Spin
| Name | Team | Age | POS | FV | VAR | Fantasy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | 23 | RHP/RF | 70 | Low | “Stuff” is ace-level but expect McCullers-like production in 2018; long-term ace; bat is gravy; hype sky high |
| Ronald Acuna | ATL | 20 | CF | 65 | Low | Not Trout or Harper level, but elite; early career could be 2011 McCutchen, late career 2011 Justin Upton; Roto monster |
| Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. | TOR | 18 | 1B | 65 | Low | Lowest risk bat on the list; floor could be Victor Martinez but ceiling could be Edgar Martinez. |
| Victor Robles | WAS | 20 | CF | 65 | Low | Lorenzo Cain a career .290/.342/.421 hitter, but Robles could surprise with more power and speed; low risk profile |
| Fernando Tatis, Jr. | SD | 19 | 3B | 65 | Med | Early walk rates + power suggest Seager, Correa could be reasonable expectation; speed will play down; could be #1 next year |
| Eloy Jimenez | CHW | 20 | RF | 65 | Med | Impressive hit/power combo make Eloy bankable for .280+/30+ HR/100+ RBI seasons in near future; skills play up in OBP leagues |
| Nick Senzel | CIN | 21 | 3B | 60 | Low | Professional hitter, high floor, 2018 ETA; upside could be Anthony Rendon-like production; value boost as 2B or OF |
| Forrest Whitley | HOU | 20 | RHP | 60 | Med | Short list of 19 year old SP to hit AA is impressive; has all the makings of 9+ K/9 SP with good command |
| Bo Bichette | TOR | 19 | 2B | 60 | Med | Crazy age 19 numbers suggest very high floor; likely to move to 2B but bat will play anywhere. Could be more hit than power; expect speed to slow. |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | 21 | RF | 60 | Low | Impressive gains vs. LPH suggest great hitter; could be Christian Yelich-type with impact likely in 2019 |
| Willy Adames | TB | 22 | SS | 60 | Low | Underrated, .340 – .350 wOBA type who’s progressed slowly but steadily; could look like last few seasons from Xander Bogaerts |
| Gleyber Torres | NYY | 21 | SS | 60 | Low | Expect double-digits BB rates, good AVG, and solid power in NY stadium; Robinson Cano-like upside long term is possible if power ticks upward |
| Lewis Brinson | MIA | 23 | CF | 60 | Med | Impressive development in 2017 suggest baseline of double digit HR and SB as early as 2018 with full playing time in MIA |
| Miguel Andujar | NYY | 22 | 3B | 60 | Med | Minimal speed but high contact approach gives strong baseline of immediate success; see Mike Moustakas career as possible curve if swing adjustments keep paying off |
| Brent Honeywell | TB | 22 | RHP | 60 | Low | Deep repetoire and bulldog mentality give Honeywell high floor; fly ball tendencines should give some pause in AL East; 2018 ETA |
| Alex Reyes | STL | 23 | RHP | 60 | Med | Elite upside but expect 2018 impact in bullpen. Worth playing the long game here with 9+ K/9 potential |
| Francisco Mejia | CLE | 22 | C/3B | 60 | High | Hit tool ahead of OBP skills but AVG floor is very high to setup as Top 10 option as early as 2018 |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | 21 | SS | 60 | Med | Quietly behind some other SS who have risen in ranks but power bat + Coors will make Rodgers hot commodity in all leagues; ETA 2019 |
| Sixto Sanchez | PHI | 19 | RHP | 60 | Med | Stuff grades elite but never posting K/9 at 9+ tempers short term expectations; age suggests breakthrough could come quickly with 2019 ETA |
| Michael Kopech | CHW | 21 | RHP | 60 | Med | Grades compare to Noah Syndergaard but command issues will create slower than desired developmental adjustments |
| Luis Robert | CHW | 20 | CF | 60 | High | Skills off the charts; this is a growth stock you’re better off grabbing sooner rather than later; speed + power potential if everything clicks |
| Brendan McKay | TB | 22 | LHP/1B | 60 | Med | Could be Ohtani-like trendsetter at 50% of the price |
| Mitch Keller | PIT | 21 | RHP | 60 | Med | Elite command set floor very high with smooth MLB entry likely; PIT likely to hold down until late 2018 |
| Keston Hiura | MIL | 21 | 2B | 55 | Med | An Ian Kinsler (.273/.342/.447) career is not crazy and would make him extremely valuable |
| Scott Kingery | PHI | 23 | 2B | 55 | Low | Approach plays down in OBP leagues but speed/defense/hit tools will make him great; if power stays, he’s an All Star |
| Kyle Wright | ATL | 22 | RHP | 55 | Med | Wait-and-see approach but draft pedigree and premium slider suggests he could move faster than any Braves SP; late 2018 ETA possible |
| Walker Buehler | LA | 23 | RHP | 55 | Med | Power fastball and curve give high floor but with LAD sights on title they don’t have room for patience; bullpen risk short term |
| Luis Urias | SD | 20 | 2B | 55 | Low | Elite barrel control, great track record says do not sleep on power, which is only perceived missing piece here |
| J.P. Crawford | PHI | 23 | SS | 55 | Low | Prospect forever; may play just above replacement level until power develops |
| A.J. Puk | OAK | 22 | LHP | 55 | Med | Strong K + GB rates provide promising floor; if command develops further this could be highest upside arm on the list |
| Luiz Gohara | ATL | 21 | LHP | 55 | Med | Talent and SP2-type stuff is evident but expect growing pains as command develops real time in Braves rotation in 2018 |
| Franklin Barreto | OAK | 21 | CF | 55 | Med | Potential 20-20 player long term whose skills will play down significantly in OBP leagues until approach stabilizes; bust risk exists |
| MacKenzie Gore | SD | 18 | LHP | 55 | Med | Wide range of outcomes as some scouts see an ace here; athleticism and maturity bodes well for landing closer to SP3 value or better by 2020 |
| Mike Soroka | ATL | 20 | RHP | 55 | Low | 150+ IP in AA at age 19 gives impression of solid floor, though modest K rates suggest the next Rick Porcello |
| Corbin Burnes | MIL | 23 | RHP | 55 | Med | Under the radar arm with very solid MiLB track record; could surprise and GB profile may be best skill in bag |
| Anthony Alford | TOR | 22 | CF | 55 | Med | Good candidate for a guy who figures it out in MLB; baseline skills suggest solid OBP and SB, with occasional pop |
| Cristian Pache | ATL | 19 | CF | 55 | High | 32 SB in 119 games last year hide the fact that he’s never hit a professional HR. Defense alone will make him every day player but bat may be lite |
| Royce Lewis | MIN | 18 | CF | 55 | High | Seems destined to move off SS but hit and power tools give Lewis high chance to jump up the ranks in 2018 |
| Justus Sheffield | NYY | 21 | LHP | 55 | Low | AFL breakout player could help NYY in 2018, but look to AA performance to set MLB expectations |
| Carter Kieboom | WAS | 20 | 3B | 55 | Med | Bat, power, and position versatility may play like Jedd Gyorko-type career, with upside from there |
| Michel Baez | SD | 22 | RHP | 55 | High | 2018 performance vs. older competition could either stall value or blow up him near the top of this list |
| Hunter Greene | CIN | 18 | RHP | 55 | High | Massive fastball and impressive athlete project immense upside if secondaries develop too |
| Jake Bauers | TB | 22 | RF | 50 | Low | Power has steadily developed along with hit tool over MiLB career; good bet to have boring but underrated fantasy career; KATOH Top 10 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | 20 | LF | 50 | Med | Some scouts extremely high on Alvarez and project both plus hit and power tools; key question is OF or 1B? |
| Ian Anderson | ATL | 19 | RHP | 50 | Med | Excellent age 19 season implies crazy upside because GB rates are also well above average; ETA likely 2020 |
| Willie Calhoun | TEX | 23 | DH | 50 | Low | He’s going to hit almost immediately; where does he play, and how often? Fun profile to pull for in TEX |
| Austin Meadows | PIT | 22 | LF | 50 | Low | 2018 will be defining season to show he can hit again and stay healthy now that CF is open in PIT |
| Alex Verdugo | LA | 20 | RF | 50 | Low | Hit tool so impressive that he’s a good bet to exceed expectations on power production long term |
| Jesus Sanchez | TB | 20 | RF | 50 | High | Minor league resume so consistently impressive that he’s a candidate to leap big in 2018; TB will take things slow |
| Juan Soto | WAS | 19 | RF | 50 | Med | OBP high upside darling just needs one healthy season to be considered among the elite bats in OBP leagues |
| Triston McKenzie | CLE | 20 | RHP | 50 | Med | 186 strikeouts in 143 IP last season suggest much higher upside than current ranking; CLE has solid developmental track record too |
| Monte Harrison | MIA | 22 | CF | 50 | High | Large developmental steps forward last year suggest he’s figuring it out; power and speed is his game |
| Colin Moran | PIT | 25 | 3B | 50 | Low | Finally unlocked power last season at age 24; David Freese-type career is reasonable if ISO gains stick |
| Yadier Alvarez | LA | 21 | RHP | 50 | High | Like many pitchers: great stuff but command is everything; 2018 is redefining season; stock down |
| Austin Riley | ATL | 20 | 3B | 50 | Med | Boosted value with defensive and AVG gains after aggressive AA promotion; big bat in the making; 2019 ETA |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | PIT | 20 | 3B | 50 | Med | Could have Miguel Andujar-like breakout in 2018 but bat probably plays a tier below; move to SS? |
| Taylor Trammell | CIN | 20 | CF | 50 | Med | 13 HR + 41 SB in 129 G last season; “Trammel is exciting since we don’t know exactly what is ceiling is yet”. Buy now. |
| Jorge Mateo | OAK | 22 | CF | 50 | High | Imagine what you wanted Billy Hamilton to be and then add a dash of power and AVG and you might get your wish in Mateo |
| Albert Abreu | NYY | 22 | RHP | 50 | High | More elite arm strength but command still in development; just one of many high upside arms in NYY system |
| Touki Toussaint | ATL | 21 | RHP | 50 | High | Likely to have massive swings in value due to filthy stuff but maddening command; candidate to be ATL closer by 2020 |
| Tyler O’Neill | STL | 22 | RF | 50 | Med | Volatile range of outcomes here that could resemble something like Adam Duval, Steven Souza, Domingo Santana hybrid |
| Anderson Espinoza | SD | 19 | RHP | 50 | High | TJS + command concerns make him a watchlist stash at best until at least 2019 |
| Dustin Fowler | OAK | 23 | CF | 50 | Low | Skills may play down in OBP but he’s a sneaky 15-15 candidate if knee heals as everyone hopes |
| Will Smith | LA | 22 | C | 50 | Med | “He’s an Austin Barnes sequel who’s perhaps two years from the majors.” |
| Jack Flaherty | STL | 22 | RHP | 50 | Low | Strong STL development track record suggest he can contribute as soon as 2018 in meaningful way (8+ K/9) |
| Jo Adell | LAA | 18 | RF | 50 | High | Raw Matt Kemp-like skills with off the charts athleticism; risk is high but reward could move him up list quickly |
| Jorge Guzman | MIA | 22 | RHP | 50 | High | Consistent K/9 rates around 12.0 and GB rates > 50% suggest underrated monster in the making |
| Tristen Lutz | MIL | 19 | RF | 50 | High | Power is calling card but also hit over .300 in MiLB debut. MIL knows how to develop OF’s, so keep an eye on him |
| Jahmai Jones | LAA | 20 | CF | 50 | Low | Plus hit, plus run = “He profiles as a table-setting doubles machine.” |
| Jesus Luzardo | OAK | 20 | LHP | 50 | Med | Scouts agree he’s one of biggest breakout candidates of 2018; 2019 ETA |
| Danny Jansen | TOR | 22 | C | 50 | Low | Adjustments in 2017 look like real deal; with C ranks thin in MLB, Jansen could exceed expectations, especially in OBP leagues |
| Alec Hansen | CHW | 23 | RHP | 50 | High | Giant stuff and enough upside to be considered much higher than this if command improves |
| Adonis Medina | PHI | 21 | RHP | 50 | Med | 120 IP last season at 10.0 K/9 implies quite a bit of upside; 2019 ETA |
| Cole Tucker | PIT | 21 | SS | 50 | Med | Big, athletic, sneaky speed here give hope for healthy breakthrough this season |
| Riley Pint | COL | 20 | RHP | 50 | High | MiLB stats are ugly and stock is down but “stuff” alone keeps him on the list |
| Nate Pearson | TOR | 21 | RHP | 50 | High | Filthy pitches might make him Top 10 arm; with small strides in 2018 his value will shoot up rankings |
| Nick Gordon | MIN | 22 | SS | 50 | Low | Profile of a “better in MLB than fantasy” SS; ETA late 2018 |
| Max Fried | ATL | 24 | LHP | 50 | Med | Big curveball and 2018 rotation chance puts him on radar but there’s HR risk here too |
| Estevan Florial | NYY | 20 | CF | 50 | High | Raw talent is evident but upside and risk are about even right now so 2018 will be big season for stock value |
| Yu-Cheng Chang | CLE | 22 | SS | 50 | Med | Underrated Ben Zobrist-type who could surprise and play a utility role in CLE as early as 2018 |
| Sean Murphy | OAK | 23 | C | 50 | High | Off radar C prospect with solid approach and maybe average power |
| Brian Anderson | MIA | 24 | 3B | 50 | Low | See Colin Moran profile as they project as similar offensive 3B |
| Ryan McMahon | COL | 23 | 1B | 50 | Low | Huge AAA season boost stock as does possible utility role in COL as early as this year; he can hit |
| Joey Wentz | ATL | 20 | LHP | 50 | Med | Upside could be Jon Lester if control improves but he’s a few seasons away |
| Carson Kelly | STL | 23 | C | 50 | Low | KATOH loves him but he’s more likely a backup C in most leagues early in career |
| Leody Taveras | TEX | 19 | CF | 50 | Med | Upside is 20-20 player in TEX but power may play down from there |
| Isan Diaz | MIA | 21 | 2B | 50 | Med | Aggressive approach implies risk but ultimate upside might be Brian Dozier power from left side |
| Jon Duplantier | ARI | 23 | RHP | 50 | Med | Solid command helps repertoire play up even more; could impact in 2018 |
| Zack Burdi | CHW | 22 | RHP | 50 | Med | High risk, high reward RP but the fact that he’s even on the list considering TJS shows you how talented he is |
| Austin Hays | BAL | 22 | RF | 50 | Med | 2017 breakout will be given chance to continue in BAL but skills may play down in OBP leagues early on |
| Zack Collins | CHW | 22 | 1B | 50 | Low | OBP darling could be something like Carlos Santana with limited looks at C |
| Bobby Bradley | CLE | 21 | 1B | 50 | Med | Power left handed bat in the making but ability to cut K rate in 2017 suggests he’s making positive adjustments |
| Jose Siri | CIN | 22 | CF | 50 | High | Speed and hit tool give hope for five tool player (46 SB’s); approach and age for level suggest high bust potential |
| Braxton Garrett | MIA | 20 | LHP | 50 | High | Impacted by TJS, he’s a guy to stash on your watch list until 2019 |
| Michael Chavis | BOS | 22 | 1B | 50 | Med | Approach and power look comparable to Todd Frazier if things break right |
| Cole Ragans | TEX | 20 | LHP | 50 | Med | Namesake and changeup remind us of Cole Hamels, but his upside is much lower; 2020 ETA |
| Brandon Marsh | LAA | 20 | CF | 50 | High | Big-bodied OF with power/speed combo; scouts expect big 2018 breakout |
| Jay Groome | BOS | 19 | LHP | 50 | High | Some would say disappointing 2017, but underlying stats give hope for upcoming breakout if healthy |
| Alex Kirilloff | MIN | 20 | RF | 50 | Med | Solid hit and power tools but 2018 is wait and see after TJS |
| Franklin Perez | DET | 20 | RHP | 50 | Med | Developmentally young as SP, his diverse repertoire will have to offset his fly ball tendencies to confirm pedigree |
Trey is a 20+ year fantasy veteran and an early adopter of Ottoneu fantasy sports. He currently administers the Ottoneu community, a network of ~1,200 fantasy baseball and football fans talking sports daily. More resources here: http://community.ottoneu.com
Kyle Lewis not on the list due to missing most of ’17 with injury?
Yes, and Eric fielded the same question here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects-chat/