2018 Top 100 Prospects: Fantasy Spin

by Trey Baughn

February 9, 2018

Eric and Kiley have graciously taken the time to give us some of the best prospect content on the net, but today as prospect week continues I’ll provide a quick fantasy spin for each of the 2018 Top 100 prospects. The goal here is simply to each prospect’s grades and scouting reports and then translate those skills into “what could be” for fantasy context (for example where “upside” might represent an 80%+ outcome on a prospect’s potential).

Name	Team	Age	POS	FV	VAR	Fantasy
Shohei Ohtani	LAA	23	RHP/RF	70	Low	“Stuff” is ace-level but expect McCullers-like production in 2018; long-term ace; bat is gravy; hype sky high
Ronald Acuna	ATL	20	CF	65	Low	Not Trout or Harper level, but elite; early career could be 2011 McCutchen, late career 2011 Justin Upton; Roto monster
Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.	TOR	18	1B	65	Low	Lowest risk bat on the list; floor could be Victor Martinez but ceiling could be Edgar Martinez.
Victor Robles	WAS	20	CF	65	Low	Lorenzo Cain a career .290/.342/.421 hitter, but Robles could surprise with more power and speed; low risk profile
Fernando Tatis, Jr.	SD	19	3B	65	Med	Early walk rates + power suggest Seager, Correa could be reasonable expectation; speed will play down; could be #1 next year
Eloy Jimenez	CHW	20	RF	65	Med	Impressive hit/power combo make Eloy bankable for .280+/30+ HR/100+ RBI seasons in near future; skills play up in OBP leagues
Nick Senzel	CIN	21	3B	60	Low	Professional hitter, high floor, 2018 ETA; upside could be Anthony Rendon-like production; value boost as 2B or OF
Forrest Whitley	HOU	20	RHP	60	Med	Short list of 19 year old SP to hit AA is impressive; has all the makings of 9+ K/9 SP with good command
Bo Bichette	TOR	19	2B	60	Med	Crazy age 19 numbers suggest very high floor; likely to move to 2B but bat will play anywhere. Could be more hit than power; expect speed to slow.
Kyle Tucker	HOU	21	RF	60	Low	Impressive gains vs. LPH suggest great hitter; could be Christian Yelich-type with impact likely in 2019
Willy Adames	TB	22	SS	60	Low	Underrated, .340 – .350 wOBA type who’s progressed slowly but steadily; could look like last few seasons from Xander Bogaerts
Gleyber Torres	NYY	21	SS	60	Low	Expect double-digits BB rates, good AVG, and solid power in NY stadium; Robinson Cano-like upside long term is possible if power ticks upward
Lewis Brinson	MIA	23	CF	60	Med	Impressive development in 2017 suggest baseline of double digit HR and SB as early as 2018 with full playing time in MIA
Miguel Andujar	NYY	22	3B	60	Med	Minimal speed but high contact approach gives strong baseline of immediate success; see Mike Moustakas career as possible curve if swing adjustments keep paying off
Brent Honeywell	TB	22	RHP	60	Low	Deep repetoire and bulldog mentality give Honeywell high floor; fly ball tendencines should give some pause in AL East; 2018 ETA
Alex Reyes	STL	23	RHP	60	Med	Elite upside but expect 2018 impact in bullpen. Worth playing the long game here with 9+ K/9 potential
Francisco Mejia	CLE	22	C/3B	60	High	Hit tool ahead of OBP skills but AVG floor is very high to setup as Top 10 option as early as 2018
Brendan Rodgers	COL	21	SS	60	Med	Quietly behind some other SS who have risen in ranks but power bat + Coors will make Rodgers hot commodity in all leagues; ETA 2019
Sixto Sanchez	PHI	19	RHP	60	Med	Stuff grades elite but never posting K/9 at 9+ tempers short term expectations; age suggests breakthrough could come quickly with 2019 ETA
Michael Kopech	CHW	21	RHP	60	Med	Grades compare to Noah Syndergaard but command issues will create slower than desired developmental adjustments
Luis Robert	CHW	20	CF	60	High	Skills off the charts; this is a growth stock you’re better off grabbing sooner rather than later; speed + power potential if everything clicks
Brendan McKay	TB	22	LHP/1B	60	Med	Could be Ohtani-like trendsetter at 50% of the price
Mitch Keller	PIT	21	RHP	60	Med	Elite command set floor very high with smooth MLB entry likely; PIT likely to hold down until late 2018
Keston Hiura	MIL	21	2B	55	Med	An Ian Kinsler (.273/.342/.447) career is not crazy and would make him extremely valuable
Scott Kingery	PHI	23	2B	55	Low	Approach plays down in OBP leagues but speed/defense/hit tools will make him great; if power stays, he’s an All Star
Kyle Wright	ATL	22	RHP	55	Med	Wait-and-see approach but draft pedigree and premium slider suggests he could move faster than any Braves SP; late 2018 ETA possible
Walker Buehler	LA	23	RHP	55	Med	Power fastball and curve give high floor but with LAD sights on title they don’t have room for patience; bullpen risk short term
Luis Urias	SD	20	2B	55	Low	Elite barrel control, great track record says do not sleep on power, which is only perceived missing piece here
J.P. Crawford	PHI	23	SS	55	Low	Prospect forever; may play just above replacement level until power develops
A.J. Puk	OAK	22	LHP	55	Med	Strong K + GB rates provide promising floor; if command develops further this could be highest upside arm on the list
Luiz Gohara	ATL	21	LHP	55	Med	Talent and SP2-type stuff is evident but expect growing pains as command develops real time in Braves rotation in 2018
Franklin Barreto	OAK	21	CF	55	Med	Potential 20-20 player long term whose skills will play down significantly in OBP leagues until approach stabilizes; bust risk exists
MacKenzie Gore	SD	18	LHP	55	Med	Wide range of outcomes as some scouts see an ace here; athleticism and maturity bodes well for landing closer to SP3 value or better by 2020
Mike Soroka	ATL	20	RHP	55	Low	150+ IP in AA at age 19 gives impression of solid floor, though modest K rates suggest the next Rick Porcello
Corbin Burnes	MIL	23	RHP	55	Med	Under the radar arm with very solid MiLB track record; could surprise and GB profile may be best skill in bag
Anthony Alford	TOR	22	CF	55	Med	Good candidate for a guy who figures it out in MLB; baseline skills suggest solid OBP and SB, with occasional pop
Cristian Pache	ATL	19	CF	55	High	32 SB in 119 games last year hide the fact that he’s never hit a professional HR. Defense alone will make him every day player but bat may be lite
Royce Lewis	MIN	18	CF	55	High	Seems destined to move off SS but hit and power tools give Lewis high chance to jump up the ranks in 2018
Justus Sheffield	NYY	21	LHP	55	Low	AFL breakout player could help NYY in 2018, but look to AA performance to set MLB expectations
Carter Kieboom	WAS	20	3B	55	Med	Bat, power, and position versatility may play like Jedd Gyorko-type career, with upside from there
Michel Baez	SD	22	RHP	55	High	2018 performance vs. older competition could either stall value or blow up him near the top of this list
Hunter Greene	CIN	18	RHP	55	High	Massive fastball and impressive athlete project immense upside if secondaries develop too
Jake Bauers	TB	22	RF	50	Low	Power has steadily developed along with hit tool over MiLB career; good bet to have boring but underrated fantasy career; KATOH Top 10
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	20	LF	50	Med	Some scouts extremely high on Alvarez and project both plus hit and power tools; key question is OF or 1B?
Ian Anderson	ATL	19	RHP	50	Med	Excellent age 19 season implies crazy upside because GB rates are also well above average; ETA likely 2020
Willie Calhoun	TEX	23	DH	50	Low	He’s going to hit almost immediately; where does he play, and how often? Fun profile to pull for in TEX
Austin Meadows	PIT	22	LF	50	Low	2018 will be defining season to show he can hit again and stay healthy now that CF is open in PIT
Alex Verdugo	LA	20	RF	50	Low	Hit tool so impressive that he’s a good bet to exceed expectations on power production long term
Jesus Sanchez	TB	20	RF	50	High	Minor league resume so consistently impressive that he’s a candidate to leap big in 2018; TB will take things slow
Juan Soto	WAS	19	RF	50	Med	OBP high upside darling just needs one healthy season to be considered among the elite bats in OBP leagues
Triston McKenzie	CLE	20	RHP	50	Med	186 strikeouts in 143 IP last season suggest much higher upside than current ranking; CLE has solid developmental track record too
Monte Harrison	MIA	22	CF	50	High	Large developmental steps forward last year suggest he’s figuring it out; power and speed is his game
Colin Moran	PIT	25	3B	50	Low	Finally unlocked power last season at age 24; David Freese-type career is reasonable if ISO gains stick
Yadier Alvarez	LA	21	RHP	50	High	Like many pitchers: great stuff but command is everything; 2018 is redefining season; stock down
Austin Riley	ATL	20	3B	50	Med	Boosted value with defensive and AVG gains after aggressive AA promotion; big bat in the making; 2019 ETA
Ke’Bryan Hayes	PIT	20	3B	50	Med	Could have Miguel Andujar-like breakout in 2018 but bat probably plays a tier below; move to SS?
Taylor Trammell	CIN	20	CF	50	Med	13 HR + 41 SB in 129 G last season; “Trammel is exciting since we don’t know exactly what is ceiling is yet”. Buy now.
Jorge Mateo	OAK	22	CF	50	High	Imagine what you wanted Billy Hamilton to be and then add a dash of power and AVG and you might get your wish in Mateo
Albert Abreu	NYY	22	RHP	50	High	More elite arm strength but command still in development; just one of many high upside arms in NYY system
Touki Toussaint	ATL	21	RHP	50	High	Likely to have massive swings in value due to filthy stuff but maddening command; candidate to be ATL closer by 2020
Tyler O’Neill	STL	22	RF	50	Med	Volatile range of outcomes here that could resemble something like Adam Duval, Steven Souza, Domingo Santana hybrid
Anderson Espinoza	SD	19	RHP	50	High	TJS + command concerns make him a watchlist stash at best until at least 2019
Dustin Fowler	OAK	23	CF	50	Low	Skills may play down in OBP but he’s a sneaky 15-15 candidate if knee heals as everyone hopes
Will Smith	LA	22	C	50	Med	“He’s an Austin Barnes sequel who’s perhaps two years from the majors.”
Jack Flaherty	STL	22	RHP	50	Low	Strong STL development track record suggest he can contribute as soon as 2018 in meaningful way (8+ K/9)
Jo Adell	LAA	18	RF	50	High	Raw Matt Kemp-like skills with off the charts athleticism; risk is high but reward could move him up list quickly
Jorge Guzman	MIA	22	RHP	50	High	Consistent K/9 rates around 12.0 and GB rates > 50% suggest underrated monster in the making
Tristen Lutz	MIL	19	RF	50	High	Power is calling card but also hit over .300 in MiLB debut. MIL knows how to develop OF’s, so keep an eye on him
Jahmai Jones	LAA	20	CF	50	Low	Plus hit, plus run = “He profiles as a table-setting doubles machine.”
Jesus Luzardo	OAK	20	LHP	50	Med	Scouts agree he’s one of biggest breakout candidates of 2018; 2019 ETA
Danny Jansen	TOR	22	C	50	Low	Adjustments in 2017 look like real deal; with C ranks thin in MLB, Jansen could exceed expectations, especially in OBP leagues
Alec Hansen	CHW	23	RHP	50	High	Giant stuff and enough upside to be considered much higher than this if command improves
Adonis Medina	PHI	21	RHP	50	Med	120 IP last season at 10.0 K/9 implies quite a bit of upside; 2019 ETA
Cole Tucker	PIT	21	SS	50	Med	Big, athletic, sneaky speed here give hope for healthy breakthrough this season
Riley Pint	COL	20	RHP	50	High	MiLB stats are ugly and stock is down but “stuff” alone keeps him on the list
Nate Pearson	TOR	21	RHP	50	High	Filthy pitches might make him Top 10 arm; with small strides in 2018 his value will shoot up rankings
Nick Gordon	MIN	22	SS	50	Low	Profile of a “better in MLB than fantasy” SS; ETA late 2018
Max Fried	ATL	24	LHP	50	Med	Big curveball and 2018 rotation chance puts him on radar but there’s HR risk here too
Estevan Florial	NYY	20	CF	50	High	Raw talent is evident but upside and risk are about even right now so 2018 will be big season for stock value
Yu-Cheng Chang	CLE	22	SS	50	Med	Underrated Ben Zobrist-type who could surprise and play a utility role in CLE as early as 2018
Sean Murphy	OAK	23	C	50	High	Off radar C prospect with solid approach and maybe average power
Brian Anderson	MIA	24	3B	50	Low	See Colin Moran profile as they project as similar offensive 3B
Ryan McMahon	COL	23	1B	50	Low	Huge AAA season boost stock as does possible utility role in COL as early as this year; he can hit
Joey Wentz	ATL	20	LHP	50	Med	Upside could be Jon Lester if control improves but he’s a few seasons away
Carson Kelly	STL	23	C	50	Low	KATOH loves him but he’s more likely a backup C in most leagues early in career
Leody Taveras	TEX	19	CF	50	Med	Upside is 20-20 player in TEX but power may play down from there
Isan Diaz	MIA	21	2B	50	Med	Aggressive approach implies risk but ultimate upside might be Brian Dozier power from left side
Jon Duplantier	ARI	23	RHP	50	Med	Solid command helps repertoire play up even more; could impact in 2018
Zack Burdi	CHW	22	RHP	50	Med	High risk, high reward RP but the fact that he’s even on the list considering TJS shows you how talented he is
Austin Hays	BAL	22	RF	50	Med	2017 breakout will be given chance to continue in BAL but skills may play down in OBP leagues early on
Zack Collins	CHW	22	1B	50	Low	OBP darling could be something like Carlos Santana with limited looks at C
Bobby Bradley	CLE	21	1B	50	Med	Power left handed bat in the making but ability to cut K rate in 2017 suggests he’s making positive adjustments
Jose Siri	CIN	22	CF	50	High	Speed and hit tool give hope for five tool player (46 SB’s); approach and age for level suggest high bust potential
Braxton Garrett	MIA	20	LHP	50	High	Impacted by TJS, he’s a guy to stash on your watch list until 2019
Michael Chavis	BOS	22	1B	50	Med	Approach and power look comparable to Todd Frazier if things break right
Cole Ragans	TEX	20	LHP	50	Med	Namesake and changeup remind us of Cole Hamels, but his upside is much lower; 2020 ETA
Brandon Marsh	LAA	20	CF	50	High	Big-bodied OF with power/speed combo; scouts expect big 2018 breakout
Jay Groome	BOS	19	LHP	50	High	Some would say disappointing 2017, but underlying stats give hope for upcoming breakout if healthy
Alex Kirilloff	MIN	20	RF	50	Med	Solid hit and power tools but 2018 is wait and see after TJS
Franklin Perez	DET	20	RHP	50	Med	Developmentally young as SP, his diverse repertoire will have to offset his fly ball tendencies to confirm pedigree

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FickbohmMember since 2017

7 years ago

Kyle Lewis not on the list due to missing most of ’17 with injury?

Trey Baughn

Reply to Fickbohm

Yes, and Eric fielded the same question here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects-chat/