2018 Too Early Mock Drafts Final ADP

by
October 25, 2017

For the last three years I have run an industry mock draft during the month of September. It has been a fun exercise that suits two purposes.

  1. It is an early look at what the industry feels about the next season, especially because most people don’t have ranks or projections prepared to rely on.
  2. September can be a hard month to come up with things to talk/write about.
  3. I am a masochist.

This year I decided to turn it up a notch. I started four separate mock drafts including 57 different analysts. Here are the mock draft (you can click the title of the of each table to go to each mock) and analysts involved:

Mock #1
Pick Analyst Site
1 Michael Rathburn Rotowire
2 Joel Henard So Called Fantasy Experts
3 Steve Rapern Fighting Chance Fantasy
4 Derek Van Riper Rotowire
5 Mike Maher Fantrax
6 Bubba Entrikin The Sports Degens
7 Jimi Couch Managers
8 Doug Thorburn Baseballholics Anonymous
9 Darius Austin Friends with Fantasy Benefits
10 Jason Johnson Fantasy Pros
11 Eli Rozenfeld DFS Masters
12 Dave Duncan Bloop Curve
14 Justin Mason Friends with Fantasy Benefits/Fangraphs
14 Justin Klein Rotoballer
15 Jason Consoli Fantasy 6th Man

 

Mock #2
Pick Analyst Site
1 Michael Waterloo Roto Experts
2 Walter McMichael Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
3 Chuck Anderson Friends with Fantasy Benefits
4 Andrea LaMont Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
5 Ray Flowers Guru Elite
6 Jeff Zimmerman Rotographs
7 Rob Silver 2016 NFBC Champion
8 Steve Gardner USA Today
9 Tim Heaney Rotowire
10 Scott Bogman In This League
11 Ben Brenneis Friends with Fantasy Benefits
12 Seth Klein Razzball
13 Jusin Mason Friends with Fantasy Benefits/Fangraphs
14 Ralph Lifshitz Razzball
15 Brant Chesser Baseball HQ

 

Mock #3
Pick Analyst Site
1 Matt Thompson Friends with Fantasy Benefits
2 BatFlipCrazy BatFlipCrazy
3 Ryan Hallam Fighting Chance Fantasy
4 Paul Martin Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
5 Dan Strafford Fan Vice DFS
6 Justin Mason Friends with Fantasy Benefits/Rotographs
7 Walter Kuberski MLB.com
8 Ray Kuhn Friends with Fantasy Benefits
9 Greg Jewett FanRag Sports
10 Al Melchior FanRag Sports
11 Doug Dennis Baseball HQ
12 Andrew Perpetua Rotographs
13 Donny Miller Friends with Fantasy Benefits
14 Ryan Bloomfield Baseball HQ
15 Keith Farnsworth Fan Front Office

 

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Mock #4
Pick Analyst Site
1 Justin Mason Friends with Fantasy Benefits/Rotographs
2 Brent Hershey Baseball HQ
3 Sammy Reid Baseballholics Anonymous
4 Howard Bender Fantasy Alarm
5 Lawr Michaels Mastersball
6 Christopher Welsh In This League
7 Joseph Pytleski Baseball HQ
8 Phillip Evans Fan Front Office
9 Lance Brozdowski Big Three Sports
10 Tim McLeod Prospect361
11 Alex Chamberlain Rotographs
12 Clay Link Rotowire
13 Andrew Dewhirst Friends with Fantasy Benefits
14 Jim Bay Friends with Fantasy Benefits
15 George Bissell Baseball Prospectus

All four mock drafts are standard 5×5 Roto 15-team two catcher leagues with three bench slots. I also gave undrafted players a value of the 391st player taken. Enjoy and let the arguments begin!

Final ADP for the 2Early Mock Drafts
Rank Name Mock 1 Mock 2 Mock 3 Mock 4 Avg Low Pick High Pick Max-Min
1 Mike Trout 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
2 Jose Altuve 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0
3 Paul Goldschmidt 3 4 6 4 4.25 3 6 3
4 Nolan Arenado 6 5 3 5 4.75 3 6 3
5 Trea Turner 4 9 7 3 5.75 3 9 6
6 Charlie Blackmon 7 3 8 6 6 3 8 5
7 Bryce Harper 5 6 5 8 6 5 8 3
8 Clayton Kershaw 8 11 4 11 8.5 4 11 7
9 Joey Votto 12 7 10 7 9 7 12 5
10 Mookie Betts 10 8 13 10 10.25 8 13 5
11 Giancarlo Stanton 9 10 9 19 11.75 9 19 10
12 Max Scherzer 14 13 12 12 12.75 12 14 2
13 Carlos Correa 17 17 11 9 13.5 9 17 8
14 Chris Sale 15 15 15 13 14.5 13 15 2
15 Manny Machado 11 12 14 24 15.25 11 24 13
16 Kris Bryant 13 16 18 17 16 13 18 5
17 Anthony Rizzo 22 14 17 14 16.75 14 22 8
18 Corey Kluber 19 19 27 15 20 15 27 12
19 Freddie Freeman 20 22 16 22 20 16 22 6
20 Josh Donaldson 18 23 20 20 20.25 18 23 5
21 Jose Ramirez 28 18 22 18 21.5 18 28 10
22 Francisco Lindor 23 27 19 21 22.5 19 27 8
23 Aaron Judge 16 21 26 28 22.75 16 28 12
24 J.D. Martinez 26 20 21 26 23.25 20 26 6
25 Dee Gordon 34 24 25 16 24.75 16 34 18
26 Cody Bellinger 25 31 24 25 26.25 24 31 7
27 George Springer 30 30 23 27 27.5 23 30 7
28 Corey Seager 32 26 28 29 28.75 26 32 6
29 Gary Sanchez 27 29 29 30 28.75 27 30 3
30 Madison Bumgarner 24 25 38 31 29.5 24 38 14
31 Stephen Strasburg 21 34 44 32 32.75 21 44 23
32 Noah Syndergaard 37 32 33 36 34.5 32 37 5
33 Jose Abreu 29 35 35 49 37 29 49 20
34 Jacob DeGrom 39 40 37 33 37.25 33 40 7
35 Starling Marte 35 43 36 35 37.25 35 43 8
36 Luis Severino 36 33 43 37 37.25 33 43 10
37 Justin Upton 31 44 39 38 38 31 44 13
38 Rhys Hoskins 33 28 51 42 38.5 28 51 23
39 Carlos Carrasco 45 39 48 23 38.75 23 48 25
40 Edwin Encarnacion 38 48 31 41 39.5 31 48 17
41 Daniel Murphy 41 41 45 39 41.5 39 45 6
42 Anthony Rendon 43 47 40 45 43.75 40 47 7
43 Elvis Andrus 62 51 32 46 47.75 32 62 30
44 Brian Dozier 49 52 41 50 48 41 52 11
45 Yu Darvish 53 38 52 55 49.5 38 55 17
46 Jonathan Schoop 59 64 42 34 49.75 34 64 30
47 Marcell Ozuna 42 45 50 62 49.75 42 62 20
48 Nelson Cruz 44 49 56 52 50.25 44 56 12
49 Wil Myers 46 69 34 53 50.5 34 69 35
50 Jean Segura 66 53 46 43 52 43 66 23
51 Miguel Sano 52 71 30 59 53 30 71 41
52 Kenley Jansen 47 42 66 60 53.75 42 66 24
53 Zack Greinke 64 37 47 67 53.75 37 67 30
54 Willson Contreras 54 62 49 51 54 49 62 13
55 Carlos Martinez 60 60 58 48 56.5 48 60 12
56 Andrew Benintendi 40 72 80 40 58 40 80 40
57 Justin Verlander 55 54 67 57 58.25 54 67 13
58 Robbie Ray 63 50 55 70 59.5 50 70 20
59 Billy Hamilton 48 59 64 68 59.75 48 68 20
60 Ryan Braun 78 36 75 54 60.75 36 78 42
61 Chris Archer 50 57 70 74 62.75 50 74 24
62 Buster Posey 65 78 65 44 63 44 78 34
63 Robinson Cano 68 65 63 56 63 56 68 12
64 Byron Buxton 67 73 53 61 63.5 53 73 20
65 Christian Yelich 58 56 79 63 64 56 79 23
66 Whit Merrifield 72 70 54 66 65.5 54 72 18
67 A.J. Pollock 76 66 57 64 65.75 57 76 19
68 Eric Hosmer 61 80 59 76 69 59 80 21
69 Alex Bregman 51 75 69 81 69 51 81 30
70 Craig Kimbrel 57 46 94 85 70.5 46 94 48
71 Yoenis Cespedes 69 68 77 72 71.5 68 77 9
72 Justin Turner 56 90 72 69 71.75 56 90 34
73 Jake Arrieta 75 63 61 88 71.75 61 88 27
74 James Paxton 88 61 62 83 73.5 61 88 27
75 Tommy Pham 79 84 60 78 75.25 60 84 24
76 Miguel Cabrera 70 95 82 58 76.25 58 95 37
77 Andrew McCutchen 83 74 73 82 78 73 83 10
78 Eduardo Nunez 112 55 76 71 78.5 55 112 57
79 Khris Davis 82 86 89 65 80.5 65 89 24
80 Domingo Santana 85 89 71 84 82.25 71 89 18
81 Dallas Keuchel 81 83 81 94 84.75 81 94 13
82 Kyle Seager 105 79 68 89 85.25 68 105 37
83 Jake Lamb 71 87 85 98 85.25 71 98 27
84 Jose Quintana 87 82 108 77 88.5 77 108 31
85 Lorenzo Cain 107 77 90 80 88.5 77 107 30
86 Xander Bogaerts 98 58 103 96 88.75 58 103 45
87 Aroldis Chapman 73 99 86 97 88.75 73 99 26
88 Mike Moustakas 74 121 78 91 91 74 121 47
89 Alex Wood 90 91 100 90 92.75 90 100 10
90 Matt Olson 84 67 110 113 93.5 67 113 46
91 Gregory Polanco 111 103 88 75 94.25 75 111 36
92 Aaron Nola 102 76 99 101 94.5 76 102 26
93 Joey Gallo 86 102 116 87 97.75 86 116 30
94 J.T. Realmuto 118 88 117 73 99 73 118 45
95 Justin Smoak 104 97 97 100 99.5 97 104 7
96 Jon Lester 89 100 165 47 100.25 47 165 118
97 Yoan Moncada 93 93 113 106 101.25 93 113 20
98 Gerrit Cole 119 108 91 92 102.5 91 119 28
99 Didi Gregorius 91 132 83 104 102.5 83 132 49
100 Travis Shaw 94 133 105 79 102.75 79 133 54
101 Rougned Odor 80 104 115 118 104.25 80 118 38
102 Zack Godley 127 81 92 121 105.25 81 127 46
103 Carlos Santana 133 110 93 86 105.5 86 133 47
104 Luke Weaver 92 123 102 107 106 92 123 31
105 Adrian Beltre 129 92 87 117 106.25 87 129 42
106 Matt Carpenter 97 116 95 119 106.75 95 119 24
107 Ender Inciarte 77 117 134 114 110.5 77 134 57
108 Adam Jones 101 101 104 137 110.75 101 137 36
109 Danny Salazar 95 96 132 125 112 95 132 37
110 DJ LeMahieu 134 98 74 142 112 74 142 68
111 Salvador Perez 136 106 114 93 112.25 93 136 43
112 Michael Conforto 109 131 96 115 112.75 96 131 35
113 Rafael Devers 110 138 101 103 113 101 138 37
114 Ken Giles 113 85 107 148 113.25 85 148 63
115 Ian Desmond 96 128 112 120 114 96 128 32
116 Chris Taylor 114 114 84 144 114 84 144 60
117 Jose Berrios 108 94 121 136 114.75 94 136 42
118 Marcus Stroman 103 105 126 128 115.5 103 128 25
119 Johnny Cueto 99 143 123 102 116.75 99 143 44
120 Masahiro Tanaka 120 122 128 99 117.25 99 128 29
121 Corey Knebel 130 113 129 109 120.25 109 130 21
122 Adam Eaton 122 109 130 123 121 109 130 21
123 Jonathan Lucroy 131 118 118 124 122.75 118 131 13
124 Sonny Gray 124 155 106 110 123.75 106 155 49
125 Wade Davis 128 111 120 143 125.5 111 143 32
126 Rich Hill 132 127 119 127 126.25 119 132 13
127 Danny Duffy 106 158 98 146 127 98 158 60
128 Kevin Kiermaier 115 129 142 132 129.5 115 142 27
129 Javier Baez 126 135 124 133 129.5 124 135 11
130 Edwin Diaz 144 120 145 111 130 111 145 34
131 Roberto Osuna 117 119 138 149 130.75 117 149 32
132 Kyle Hendricks 138 151 141 95 131.25 95 151 56
133 Michael Fulmer 142 150 109 129 132.5 109 150 41
134 Ryan Zimmerman 147 149 135 108 134.75 108 149 41
135 Ian Happ 116 144 150 130 135 116 150 34
136 Zach Britton 100 148 146 156 137.5 100 156 56
137 David Price 125 126 161 140 138 125 161 36
138 Odubel Herrera 123 147 170 122 140.5 122 170 48
139 Jon Gray 148 107 159 151 141.25 107 159 52
140 Carlos Gonzalez 158 141 133 134 141.5 133 158 25
141 Ronald Acuna 175 137 151 105 142 105 175 70
142 Brett Gardner 173 112 137 161 145.75 112 173 61
143 Nick Castellanos 149 170 125 141 146.25 125 170 45
144 Kyle Schwarber 135 139 190 126 147.5 126 190 64
145 Scooter Gennett 180 134 111 173 149.5 111 180 69
146 Trevor Story 160 142 155 147 151 142 160 18
147 Lance McCullers 137 159 164 145 151.25 137 164 27
148 Brad Zimmer 164 146 152 150 153 146 164 18
149 Cody Allen 139 165 158 153 153.75 139 165 26
150 Jay Bruce 177 125 136 179 154.25 125 179 54
151 Yasiel Puig 183 115 154 171 155.75 115 183 68
152 Justin Bour 184 130 144 166 156 130 184 54
153 Luis Castillo 199 207 122 112 160 112 207 95
154 Evan Longoria 143 208 127 169 161.75 127 208 81
155 Kevin Gausman 156 167 175 152 162.5 152 175 23
156 Adam Duvall 185 172 163 131 162.75 131 185 54
157 Drew Pomeranz 140 162 195 154 162.75 140 195 55
158 Jeff Samardzija 157 152 186 162 164.25 152 186 34
159 Alex Colome 145 163 174 176 164.5 145 176 31
160 Raisel Iglesias 162 179 153 170 166 153 179 26
161 Eric Thames 121 156 184 208 167.25 121 208 87
162 Felipe Rivero 153 181 179 165 169.5 153 181 28
163 Andrelton Simmons 225 140 157 157 169.75 140 225 85
164 Eugenio Suarez 150 197 140 192 169.75 140 197 57
165 Andrew Miller 151 169 193 167 170 151 193 42
166 Trevor Bauer 141 205 177 158 170.25 141 205 64
167 Ozzie Albies 193 178 172 139 170.5 139 193 54
168 Josh Bell 165 166 180 183 173.5 165 183 18
169 Aaron Altherr 215 195 148 138 174 138 215 77
170 Zack Cozart 211 160 156 175 175.5 156 211 55
171 Greg Holland 146 177 191 198 178 146 198 52
172 Matt Kemp 181 180 187 172 180 172 187 15
173 Jameson Taillon 197 185 204 135 180.25 135 204 69
174 Corey Dickerson 154 168 203 196 180.25 154 203 49
175 Mark Melancon 155 184 185 197 180.25 155 197 42
176 Dylan Bundy 152 171 194 210 181.75 152 210 58
177 Chris Davis 159 233 178 159 182.25 159 233 74
178 Tim Anderson 163 239 147 181 182.5 147 239 92
179 Wilson Ramos 172 173 189 199 183.25 172 199 27
180 Ian Kinsler 190 200 167 178 183.75 167 200 33
181 Eddie Rosario 192 154 149 243 184.5 149 243 94
182 Jeurys Familia 178 187 162 213 185 162 213 51
183 Trey Mancini 171 213 173 184 185.25 171 213 42
184 Avisail Garcia 174 247 169 155 186.25 155 247 92
185 Aaron Sanchez 217 161 215 160 188.25 160 217 57
186 Brad Peacock 168 212 201 174 188.75 168 212 44
187 Manuel Margot 213 136 211 195 188.75 136 213 77
188 Steven Souza 259 124 131 242 189 124 259 135
189 Jimmy Nelson 167 255 226 116 191 116 255 139
190 Jackie Bradley 231 157 213 164 191.25 157 231 74
191 Kenta Maeda 188 174 221 182 191.25 174 221 47
192 Hanley Ramirez 203 145 227 202 194.25 145 227 82
193 Marwin Gonzalez 222 182 188 187 194.75 182 222 40
194 Brad Hand 202 201 160 217 195 160 217 57
195 Nomar Mazara 161 220 216 185 195.5 161 220 59
196 Mitch Haniger 182 211 171 232 199 171 232 61
197 Cole Hamels 240 231 143 186 200 143 240 97
198 Paul DeJong 176 186 220 218 200 176 220 44
199 Yadier Molina 238 191 181 200 202.5 181 238 57
200 Julio Teheran 221 206 208 180 203.75 180 221 41
201 Sean Doolittle 201 204 212 209 206.5 201 212 11
202 Yasmani Grandal 224 192 198 212 206.5 192 224 32
203 Jose Peraza 207 271 176 194 212 176 271 95
204 Nick Williams 179 243 183 250 213.75 179 250 71
205 Chase Anderson 194 199 209 253 213.75 194 253 59
206 Lance Lynn 176 176 289 221 215.5 176 289 113
207 Gio Gonzalez 214 215 166 270 216.25 166 270 104
208 Mike Zunino 235 226 218 188 216.75 188 235 47
209 Chris Owings 169 230 276 193 217 169 276 107
210 Jason Kipnis 195 237 202 236 217.5 195 237 42
211 Alex Reyes 247 196 168 259 217.5 168 259 91
212 Blake Snell 189 232 249 201 217.75 189 249 60
213 Greg Bird 187 267 199 220 218.25 187 267 80
214 Evan Gattis 218 246 197 215 219 197 246 49
215 Taijuan Walker 198 253 266 163 220 163 266 103
216 Tanner Roark 220 164 269 229 220.5 164 269 105
217 Eduardo Rodriguez 246 202 245 190 220.75 190 246 56
218 Ryon Healy 216 219 228 222 221.25 216 228 12
219 Michael Brantley 253 203 196 235 221.75 196 253 57
220 Jonathan Villar 206 216 225 241 222 206 241 35
221 Dansby Swanson 166 241 243 244 223.5 166 244 78
222 Shin-Soo Choo 293 209 139 256 224.25 139 293 154
223 Marcus Semien 208 193 237 261 224.75 193 261 68
224 Patrick Corbin 204 224 247 226 225.25 204 247 43
225 Stephen Piscotty 226 188 283 207 226 188 283 95
226 Michael Clevinger 200 238 241 225 226 200 241 41
227 Carlos Rodon 243 222 214 228 226.75 214 243 29
228 Sean Manaea 249 198 224 239 227.5 198 249 51
229 David Peralta 242 285 217 168 228 168 285 117
230 Keon Broxton 265 236 205 211 229.25 205 265 60
231 Garrett Richards 248 189 250 240 231.75 189 250 61
232 Welington Castillo 229 190 235 280 233.5 190 280 90
233 Hector Neris 255 214 261 206 234 206 261 55
234 Yasmany Tomas 262 244 206 224 234 206 262 56
235 Tim Beckham 234 269 232 203 234.5 203 269 66
236 Kelvin Herrera 205 218 238 279 235 205 279 74
237 Dinelson Lamet 258 183 251 249 235.25 183 258 75
238 Charlie Morton 267 175 219 281 235.5 175 281 106
239 Brian McCann 209 273 246 216 236 209 273 64
240 Ervin Santana 271 153 263 265 238 153 271 118
241 Aaron Hicks 237 284 229 204 238.5 204 284 80
242 Lucas Giolito 223 221 277 238 239.75 221 277 56
243 Maikel Franco 239 270 239 219 241.75 219 270 51
244 Archie Bradley 281 194 262 231 242 194 281 87
245 Cesar Hernandez 228 250 192 299 242.25 192 299 107
246 Arodys Vizcaino 278 275 200 230 245.75 200 278 78
247 Albert Pujols 241 298 274 177 247.5 177 298 121
248 Delino DeShields 284 294 207 205 247.5 205 294 89
249 Dexter Fowler 244 254 259 234 247.75 234 259 25
250 Jose Bautista 210 291 308 189 249.5 189 308 119
251 Michael Wacha 227 264 260 247 249.5 227 264 37
252 Dellin Betances 256 229 252 263 250 229 263 34
253 Yulieski Gurriel 252 234 272 246 251 234 272 38
254 Starlin Castro 219 223 291 271 251 219 291 72
255 Hunter Renfroe 196 279 257 274 251.5 196 279 83
256 Jose Martinez 325 225 182 277 252.25 182 325 143
257 Addison Russell 274 210 270 266 255 210 274 64
258 Jacob Faria 245 251 293 233 255.5 233 293 60
259 J.A. Happ 254 227 267 287 258.75 227 287 60
260 Jorge Polanco 250 228 242 319 259.75 228 319 91
261 David Dahl 232 248 273 288 260.25 232 288 56
262 Felix Hernandez 233 268 290 254 261.25 233 290 57
263 Eduardo Escobar 186 295 287 286 263.5 186 295 109
264 Mark Trumbo 170 272 324 290 264 170 324 154
265 Francisco Mejia 276 240 233 307 264 233 307 74
266 Amed Rosario 273 259 230 308 267.5 230 308 78
267 Kendrys Morales 268 217 305 289 269.75 217 305 88
268 A.J. Ramos 212 340 248 282 270.5 212 340 128
269 Scott Schebler 266 331 264 227 272 227 331 104
270 Todd Frazier 282 242 329 237 272.5 237 329 92
271 Mike Foltynewicz 296 292 271 245 276 245 296 51
272 Alex Cobb 292 266 298 248 276 248 298 50
273 Steven Matz 285 315 254 252 276.5 252 315 63
274 Max Kepler 298 288 299 223 277 223 299 76
275 Matt Chapman 308 276 265 268 279.25 265 308 43
276 Zach Davies 230 281 347 267 281.25 230 347 117
277 Matt Wieters 269 301 284 284 284.5 269 301 32
278 Vincent Velasquez 301 286 296 257 285 257 301 44
279 Brent Honeywell 295 252 285 321 288.25 252 321 69
280 Ben Zobrist 286 330 326 214 289 214 330 116
281 Josh Reddick 260 260 378 258 289 258 378 120
282 Austin Hedges 315 309 275 262 290.25 262 315 53
283 Dominic Smith 236 351 223 353 290.75 223 353 130
284 Carlos Gomez 263 249 355 298 291.25 249 355 106
285 Jake Odorizzi 291 263 307 304 291.25 263 307 44
286 Austin Barnes 280 314 320 255 292.25 255 320 65
287 Yonder Alonso 257 333 280 300 292.5 257 333 76
288 Rick Porcello 275 258 318 329 295 258 329 71
289 Derek Fisher 335 324 231 291 295.25 231 335 104
290 Brandon Belt 310 256 323 294 295.75 256 323 67
291 Blake Treinen 352 262 244 328 296.5 244 352 108
292 Kole Calhoun 305 321 292 275 298.25 275 321 46
293 Dustin Pedroia 300 360 253 285 299.5 253 360 107
294 Lewis Brinson 328 326 256 293 300.75 256 328 72
295 Victor Robles 314 306 315 276 302.75 276 315 39
296 Teoscar Hernandez 297 290 353 272 303 272 353 81
297 Russell Martin 334 277 300 302 303.25 277 334 57
298 Cam Bedrosian 264 323 306 320 303.25 264 323 59
299 Tyler Glasnow 302 278 361 273 303.5 273 361 88
300 Jedd Gyorko 345 293 282 295 303.75 282 345 63
301 Brandon Drury 340 261 278 336 303.75 261 340 79
302 Blake Parker 288 329 234 369 305 234 369 135
303 Logan Morrison 372 347 312 191 305.5 191 372 181
304 Chris Devenski 312 245 346 323 306.5 245 346 101
305 Alex Avila 326 297 297 315 308.75 297 326 29
306 David Robertson 386 235 258 357 309 235 386 151
307 Logan Forsythe 279 310 343 309 310.25 279 343 64
308 Jerad Eickhoff 317 304 331 303 313.75 303 331 28
309 Yangervis Solarte 277 280 354 345 314 277 354 77
310 Melky Cabrera 391 299 319 251 315 251 391 140
311 Gleyber Torres 342 316 288 314 315 288 342 54
312 Dan Straily 309 303 336 313 315.25 303 336 33
313 Julio Urias 261 390 268 342 315.25 261 390 129
314 Collin McHugh 313 265 332 351 315.25 265 351 86
315 Orlando Arcia 339 363 210 355 316.75 210 363 153
316 Fernando Rodney 283 311 342 338 318.5 283 342 59
317 Tyler Flowers 323 287 372 296 319.5 287 372 85
318 Aledmys Diaz 270 361 335 312 319.5 270 361 91
319 Troy Tulowitzki 294 354 314 316 319.5 294 354 60
320 Michael Taylor 343 274 369 301 321.75 274 369 95
321 Marco Estrada 369 300 295 324 322 295 369 74
322 Seung Hwan Oh 391 282 338 283 323.5 282 391 109
323 Walker Buehler 320 313 341 325 324.75 313 341 28
324 Hunter Pence 272 383 348 297 325 272 383 111
325 Michael Kopech 304 322 345 332 325.75 304 345 41
326 Josh Hader 322 302 352 334 327.5 302 352 50
327 Hernan Perez 330 368 325 292 328.75 292 368 76
328 Kyle Barraclough 347 257 391 331 331.5 257 391 134
329 Cameron Maybin 391 342 255 344 333 255 391 136
330 Willie Calhoun 306 365 359 306 334 306 365 59
331 Jharel Cotton 358 308 317 366 337.25 308 366 58
332 Parker Bridwell 251 345 367 391 338.5 251 391 140
333 Chance Sisco 348 373 311 330 340.5 311 373 62
334 Chris Stratton 349 283 386 346 341 283 386 103
335 Joc Pederson 391 359 236 379 341.25 236 391 155
336 Juan Nicasio 391 344 240 391 341.5 240 391 151
337 Robinson Chirinos 391 391 321 264 341.75 264 391 127
338 Jason Vargas 331 341 373 322 341.75 322 373 51
339 Jose Reyes 321 391 304 354 342.5 304 391 87
340 Shane Greene 391 296 322 370 344.75 296 391 95
341 Travis d’Arnaud 380 305 303 391 344.75 303 391 88
342 Mark Reynolds 337 389 286 368 345 286 389 103
343 Daniel Mengden 391 391 301 305 347 301 391 90
344 Jarrod Dyson 391 289 351 358 347.25 289 391 102
345 Chris Iannetta 307 391 309 382 347.25 307 391 84
346 Jorge Alfaro 391 334 391 278 348.5 278 391 113
347 Josh Harrison 391 391 222 391 348.75 222 391 169
348 JP Crawford 287 391 327 391 349 287 391 104
349 Nick Senzel 389 319 316 373 349.25 316 389 73
350 Jhoulys Chacin 356 370 349 327 350.5 327 370 43
351 Neil Walker 391 312 384 317 351 312 391 79
352 Sean Newcomb 333 364 382 326 351.25 326 382 56
353 Lonnie Chisenhall 365 391 391 269 354 269 391 122
354 Stephen Vogt 374 320 391 333 354.5 320 391 71
355 Jakob Junis 289 391 391 347 354.5 289 391 102
356 Francisco Cervelli 373 367 375 311 356.5 311 375 64
357 Daniel Norris 303 391 360 375 357.25 303 391 88
358 Jason Castro 361 381 302 385 357.25 302 385 83
359 Brandon Phillips 391 388 391 260 357.5 260 391 131
360 Mike Leake 391 391 281 367 357.5 281 391 110
361 Francis Martes 391 318 391 335 358.75 318 391 73
362 Tom Murphy 351 391 376 318 359 318 391 73
363 Kevin Pillar 391 378 330 337 359 330 391 61
364 Christian Vasquez 319 391 340 391 360.25 319 391 72
365 Sam Dyson 346 384 374 339 360.75 339 384 45
366 Adam Wainwright 353 337 391 363 361 337 391 54
367 CC Sabathia 368 391 334 352 361.25 334 391 57
368 Chad Green 391 307 357 391 361.5 307 391 84
369 Kendall Gravemann 354 327 391 376 362 327 391 64
370 Luiz Gohara 391 332 337 391 362.75 332 391 59
371 Jordan Montgomery 391 391 279 391 363 279 391 112
372 Eloy Jimenez 344 369 383 362 364.5 344 383 39
373 Matt Davidson 290 391 391 386 364.5 290 391 101
374 Gerardo Parra 391 328 370 372 365.25 328 391 63
375 Kurt Suzuki 390 391 294 387 365.5 294 391 97
376 Addison Reed 359 375 366 364 366 359 375 16
377 German Marquez 367 317 391 391 366.5 317 391 74
378 Joe Mauer 299 391 391 391 368 299 391 92
379 Max Fried 336 387 391 359 368.25 336 391 55
380 Clint Frazier 311 391 391 389 370.5 311 391 80
381 Chad Kuhl 391 391 391 310 370.75 310 391 81
382 Tyler Anderson 391 391 310 391 370.75 310 391 81
383 Cameron Rupp 391 391 313 391 371.5 313 391 78
384 Adam Frazier 324 382 391 391 372 324 391 67
385 C.J. Edwards 391 339 368 391 372.25 339 391 52
386 Trevor Rosenthal 316 391 391 391 372.25 316 391 75
387 Carter Capps 318 391 391 391 372.75 318 391 73
388 Albert Almora 362 391 391 348 373 348 391 43
389 James McCann 382 372 391 349 373.5 349 391 42
390 Devon Travis 391 379 333 391 373.5 333 391 58
391 Trevor Hildenberger 391 350 364 391 374 350 391 41
392 Mike Napoli 376 391 365 365 374.25 365 391 26
393 Carson Fulmer 360 356 391 391 374.5 356 391 35
394 Ian Kennedy 391 325 391 391 374.5 325 391 66
395 Dustin Fowler 327 391 391 391 375 327 391 64
396 Jed Lowrie 375 391 379 356 375.25 356 391 35
397 Alex Meyer 391 391 328 391 375.25 328 391 63
398 Jeremy Hellickson 329 391 391 391 375.5 329 391 62
399 Tyler Chatwood 332 391 391 391 376.25 332 391 59
400 Ivan Nova 391 391 344 380 376.5 344 391 47
401 Matt Harvey 391 362 363 391 376.75 362 391 29
402 Ben Gamel 391 380 391 360 377 360 391 31
403 Franklin Barreto 391 335 391 391 377 335 391 56
404 Mallex Smith 350 391 391 377 377.25 350 391 41
405 Tucker Barnhart 391 336 391 391 377.25 336 391 55
406 Jack Flaherty 391 377 350 391 377.25 350 391 41
407 Joe Musgrove 391 338 391 391 377.75 338 391 53
408 AJ Puk 338 391 391 391 377.75 338 391 53
409 C.J. Cron 391 391 339 391 378 339 391 52
410 Bruce Maxwell 378 352 391 391 378 352 391 39
411 Austin Meadows 391 391 391 340 378.25 340 391 51
412 Nathan Karns 391 391 391 341 378.5 341 391 50
413 Randal Grichuk 341 391 391 391 378.5 341 391 50
414 Brad Brach 391 343 391 390 378.75 343 391 48
415 Drew Smyly 391 391 391 343 379 343 391 48
416 Michael Pineda 381 355 391 391 379.5 355 391 36
417 Wilmer Flores 391 346 391 391 379.75 346 391 45
418 Brendan Rodgers 388 349 391 391 379.75 349 391 42
419 Matt Bush 391 348 391 391 380.25 348 391 43
420 Santiago Casilla 391 391 391 350 380.75 350 391 41
421 Yan Gomes 391 353 391 391 381.5 353 391 38
422 Tyler Beede 355 391 391 391 382 355 391 36
423 Tyler Skaggs 391 391 356 391 382.25 356 391 35
424 Zach Wheeler 391 357 391 391 382.5 357 391 34
425 Jesse Winker 357 391 391 391 382.5 357 391 34
426 Matt Andriese 391 366 391 391 382.67 366 391 25
427 Joe Ross 391 391 358 391 382.75 358 391 33
428 Hyun-Jin Ryu 391 358 391 391 382.75 358 391 33
429 Lucas Duda 391 391 362 391 383.75 362 391 29
430 Brandon Crawford 391 371 390 361 384 371 391 20
431 Ryan Schimpf 363 391 391 391 384 363 391 28
432 Jose Urena 364 391 391 391 384.25 364 391 27
433 Lourdes Gurriel 366 391 391 391 384.75 366 391 25
434 Matt Shoemaker 391 374 391 391 385.33 374 391 17
435 Brian Goodwin 370 391 391 391 385.75 370 391 21
436 Curtis Granderson 391 391 391 371 386 371 391 20
437 Jose Pirela 391 376 391 391 386 376 391 15
438 Anthony DeSclafani 391 391 371 391 386 371 391 20
439 Vladimir Guerrero Jr 371 391 391 391 386 371 391 20
440 Mike Montgomery 377 391 385 391 386 377 391 14
441 Tommy Joseph 391 391 391 374 386.75 374 391 17
442 Joe Panik 384 391 391 383 387.25 383 391 8
443 John Lackey 391 391 377 391 387.5 377 391 14
444 Robert Gsellman 391 391 391 378 387.75 378 391 13
445 Adam Frazier 391 382 391 391 388 382 391 9
446 Mitch Moreland 379 391 391 391 388 379 391 12
447 Homer Bailey 391 391 380 391 388.25 380 391 11
448 Alex Verdugo 391 391 391 381 388.5 381 391 10
449 Asdrubal Cabrera 391 391 381 391 388.5 381 391 10
450 Adrian Gonzalez 391 385 391 391 389 385 391 6
451 Rajai Davis 383 391 391 391 389 383 391 8
452 Keone Kela 391 391 391 384 389.25 384 391 7
453 Kyle Gibson 385 391 391 391 389.5 385 391 6
454 Brandon Nimmo 391 391 387 391 389.67 387 391 4
455 Scott Kingery 387 391 391 391 390 387 391 4
456 Dilson Herrera 391 391 388 391 390 388 391 3
457 Jung-Ho Kang 391 391 391 388 390.25 388 391 3
458 Robert Stephenson 391 391 389 391 390.33 389 391 2





 

Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

40 Comments
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Francis C.
8 years ago

Getting Betts at 10 is pretty nice value for someone with the potential to be a top 3 overall player. xStats had his 2017 xAVG in the .290’s, so don’t let that .264 fool you.

1
Andrew Perpetua
8 years ago
Reply to  Francis C.

The latest projection for him: .294/.347/.465 .346 wOBA

2
MustBunique
8 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Perpetua

Where are you getting 2018 projections? I’d be interested in seeing them.

1
Andrew Perpetua
8 years ago
Reply to  MustBunique

It comes from my own projections based upon Statcast figures. They aren’t completely updated for the 2018 season yet. Aging curves need to be applied and things of that nature, but these “rest of season” projections likely wont stray far from 2018 projections. There are a few wonky outsiders caused by weirdness in the data. Namely Joe Mauer. There also exist a bunch of retired people in this list. Look past that stuff and it should be hunky dory.

Last year my two year projection did pretty decently, and this year I hope my three year projection does even better. It is obviously limited by the statcast data, since that data only came out in 2015. And doesn’t exist for minor leaguers (yet?). https://www.xstats.org/2017-estimates/

0
AnonMember since 2025
8 years ago

Wow, King Felix is #262, that’s shocking. Not even saying it’s wrong, it’s just weird to see him going after Jacob Faria. He was in the elite tier until just a year or two ago.

1
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
8 years ago
Reply to  Anon

And how about Miguel Cabrera at 76, right after Tommy Pham and 10 spots after Whit Merrifield?!

3
Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
8 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

His back could be David Wright bad. I went with his 2017 production as a 2018 projection. His .250AVG/16HR/0 SB is on par with Melky Cabrera, Jed Lowrie, and Jordy Mercer.

0
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
8 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

Agreed he’s a major risk, but like Felix mentioned above, still super weird to see his name where it’s at.

0
AnonMember since 2025
8 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Good call on Miggy. We think in terms of aging curves, but I’m reminded yet again at how quickly the end seems to come for so many great players. Maybe he bounces back, but I’m not optimistic.

The only other name that gave me the same gut reaction of “Hey, that guy was really good and not that long ago” was Adrian Gonzalez at 450. He was a great player for about 8 years, had a good year in 2015 and really even put together a decent season last year. But this year it was injuries and some Bellinger-itis and now it’s not at all unlikely that he gets released at some point next season since it’s the last season of his deal. Can’t argue with 450 but wow, what a rapid decline.

1
theojdMember since 2023
8 years ago

Lol, I mean I like Trea Turner too, but good luck with him in the 5 spot. Much rather prefer Betts, Blackmon, hell maybe even Jose Ramirez.

2
Justin MasonFanGraphs Staff
8 years ago
Reply to  theojd

Look at what he did when on the field. Not saying I would do that, but there is an argument for it.

0
theojdMember since 2023
8 years ago
Reply to  Justin Mason

Yes, very good and the steals are obviously what elevates him, but will he EVER have a better fantasy season than what Chuck Nasty just posted? I would bet against it. Paying full price means Turner HAS to be the 5 category roto stud everyone hopes he is.

0
Wilmerrr
8 years ago
Reply to  theojd

If you base his ranking off of projections then that is pretty much where he ends up. Is there something fundamentally wrong with using projections that I am not aware of? The way I see it, top-5 is not Turner’s upside; it is his expected production.

2
Pirates HurdlesMember since 2024
8 years ago

Allowing Bryce to fall to 7th is going to look silly.

5
Justin MasonFanGraphs Staff
8 years ago
Reply to  Pirates Hurdles

I think I have heard that somewhere before…

2
Brad JohnsonMember
8 years ago

Interesting to see Altuve as the consensus #2. Not that he doesn’t fit there, but I expected a little more disagreement.

1
Jason
8 years ago

So basically everybody is buying in on Judge, Hoskins, Gallo and Olsen way too high. Nice.

-2
Moltar
8 years ago

I know it’s a weird hill to die on, but did Seth Lugo kill somebody’s puppy or something? All he did was put up 1.7 WAR in ~100 innings with a decent FIP. He doesn’t walk a lot of people, gets ground balls, and most importantly has a rotation spot as long as he’s healthy. Just surprised to always see him unranked.

0
Justin MasonFanGraphs Staff
8 years ago
Reply to  Moltar

Easily could have just been forgotten about due to poor ranks on the site we used.

2
Brad JohnsonMember
8 years ago
Reply to  Justin Mason

^Probably this. Always happens with a few guys.

2
AnonMember since 2025
8 years ago

The 1st name on the list that made me go “really? That high?” was Segura at 50. The 2nd was Whit Merrifield at 66. There are a few other names after that but the next big name that grabbed me is Pujols at 246. He has truly become a one-trick pony because I can’t see is BA going up appreciably, the power seems to be drying up and he still can’t run so runs aren’t going to be great. He’s really RBI-or-bust and you just have to wonder: A) how long the Angels will continue to run a sub-.300 wOBA out there in the clean up spot and B) how long the magic “clutch fairy” continues to sprinkle charm dust on the guy.

1
OddBall Herrera
8 years ago
Reply to  Anon

Merrifield is at the top of my Villar list – namely players who are bought heavily the year after what will turn out to be their best season.

He looks more real than Villar did coming out of 2016, but the walk rate is a red flag and I think he is particularly vulnerable to the effects of the ball getting unjuiced, if that happens.

1
Wilmerrr
8 years ago
Reply to  Anon

Eh, .250-.260 with 25+ HR’s and 85+ RBI’s is still pretty useful. That’s basically what I expect from Pujols next year. His EV and Hard% haven’t really declined much yet, and you have to project at least some sort of modest bounceback in most of his stats. As for the RBI’s, he doesn’t need the “clutch fairy” to produce. He never walks and never strikes out so he’s constantly putting the ball in play which inevitably leads to more RBI opps. Similar to Arenado. That and the fact that he hits behind Trout. As for the playing time and lineup position, that will probably depend on whether his hitting improves, which is likely but not guaranteed. Regardless, pick 246 is dirt cheap and I’d have no problem taking there.

-1
AnonMember since 2025
8 years ago
Reply to  Wilmerrr

Probably a good call on a couple points there. I just would have a hard time rostering him at all (depending on league size of course_ but we all get irrational about certain players. . . .

0
joshua
8 years ago
Reply to  Anon

Agree on Segura and Whit. After watching the dodgers Chris Taylor all year and in the post-season no doubt in my mind he has a bigger 2018 than both of them!

0
OddBall Herrera
8 years ago

Man, I am excited about Hoskins too but he seems to be well into overdrafted territory. We’re talking about a guy at 1B who, best case, hits something like .280/30HR? There’s an intriguing trio of 1B guys (Olson, Smoak, Gallo) you can get a full 60+ picks later, that seem like equal or marginally less bang for a lot fewer bucks.

0
Wilmerrr
8 years ago
Reply to  OddBall Herrera

He may well be overdrafted but those guys you mentioned are all nowhere near as good. Hoskins should hit for a higher average and with better/more secure playing time.

2
SteveMember since 2016
8 years ago

Manny Margot seems low. Career contact guy who hit 13 homers in a shortened rookie year. Is he more boring than I’m thinking?

1
Will HannonMember since 2017
8 years ago

Anyway to combine the First and Last Name column to hot link the player pages?

1
Justin MasonFanGraphs Staff
8 years ago
Reply to  Will Hannon

I’ll see what I can do

0
Justin MasonFanGraphs Staff
8 years ago
Reply to  Will Hannon

Updated

2
stockhfcrx2Member since 2019
8 years ago

Love when you guys do stuff like this, but is there any way to get a link to download a .csv or other Excel compatible file for stuff like this and rankings? I copy and paste currently but a file would make it a little easier

0
Justin MasonFanGraphs Staff
8 years ago
Reply to  stockhfcrx2

Email me at justinmasonfantasy@gmail.com. I’d be happy to send you one.

1
stockhfcrx2Member since 2019
8 years ago
Reply to  Justin Mason

Really appreciate it, I already created my own but maybe something to mention to the bosses there going forward

0
MiketronMember since 2020
8 years ago

I think the main takeaway here is these fantasy sites have terrible names. “Guru Elite” may be the silliest, Flowers!

0
Wolvendael
8 years ago

Marwin is a steal there given his overall performance and eligibility.

JD Martinez is also a bargain at that price.

0
lipitorkidMember since 2016
8 years ago

Links to the mocks don’t work.

0
Justin MasonFanGraphs Staff
8 years ago
Reply to  lipitorkid

I think the site is updating for 2018 now.

1
lipitorkidMember since 2016
8 years ago

1. Is the spring training ball the same as the regular season ball? 2. Will we be able to tell during spring training if the baseball will play the same. I’m really conflicted in my player rankings because I’m not sure if the ball will play the same as this year.

0
The Real McNulty
8 years ago

For the averages, I would suggest taking out a player’s two highest selections. With only four drafts, it is more telling when the room passes on a player rather than having 1 owner out of 60 skew the results by reaching for a player.

0