2018 Pod Projections: Tommy Pham — A Review

Let’s wrap up my 2018 Pod Projection reviews, ending with Tommy Pham. A surprise breakout in 2017, we didn’t truly know what we were going to get in 2018. A move to Tampa mid-season didn’t exactly benefit his offense as he merely went from one pitcher friendly park to another. Let’s find out how he ended up performing compared to my projection.

Plate Appearances: Projected 612 | Actual 570

A fractured right foot cost him two weeks, while various minor ailments caused him to miss a couple of games here and there. Those maladies all added up to keep his PA total below 600, despite spending more than half his time in the top two slots in the order.

BB%: Projected 12.1% | Actual 11.8%

Like any good projection system, I had to assume some regression from his strong 2017 mark, but acknowledged his excellent plate patience was real. He just missed my walk rate projection, even while his plate discipline skills grew after moving to Tampa, as his walk rate there was an impressive 14.4%.

K%: Projected 21.8% | Actual 24.6%

Pham’s 2017 strikeout rate was better than during his first two MLB stints, which means the likely direction of his 2018 rate was up. But I actually forecasted another small step forward, owing to his 2017 xK% and better minor league track record. He failed to come through for me sadly, as his K% actually jumped above his 2015 mark to sit at the second worst mark of his short career. Even though he doesn’t whiff often, he’s extremely passive, swinging at pitches far less frequently than the average, including those inside the zone.

GB%/LD%/FB%: Projected 49% / 21% / 30% | Actual 48% / 23.9% / 28.1%

Pretty close, but he has still yet to finish a season with a fly ball rate over 30%. That’s silly for a guy with serious power. It’s worth noting that he completely transformed his batted ball distribution in Tampa, hitting line drives like crazy and upping his FB% to 32%. The LD% won’t last, but it will be interesting to see whether the improved fly ball rate is a precursor. I’ll likely forecast another 30%+ fly ball rate in 2019.

BABIP: Projected .335 | Actual .342

His xBABIPof .348 validated strong BABIP skills, but I had to forecast a bit of regression. Amazingly, he actually upped his line drive rate and reduced his IFFB%, but his BABIP still fell from his inflated 2017 mark. On the back of a 30.4% LD% in Tampa, he BABIPd .442 for them!

HR/FB Ratio: Projected 18% | Actual 21%

Who would have ever figured Pham to consistently post HR/FB rates above 20%?! He never posted a mark above 15.4% during his minor league days, outside of his 22.1% mark all the way back in 2008 at Single-A. But here he is, showing superb home run power and mostly supported by his xHR/FB rate. His minor league record screamed regression though so I had to project a mark just a bit below 20%. And then he exceeded it. But I feel like I was still relatively optimistic compared to others.

Runs and RBI: Projected 92 and 68 | Actual 102 and 63

I almost nailed his RBI + R total, but was a bit off on the balance since he spent more time than I expected in the leadoff slot. Surprisingly, he only managed to knock in 63 runs, despite hitting third or fourth in the lineup about 25% of the time.

SB: Projected 22 | Actual 15

This was probably the most disappointing aspect of Pham’s performance. He attempted 10 fewer steals in 40 more plate appearances. Of course, his OBP declined from .411 to .367, so his actual opportunities to steal a base probably didn’t change all that much. But still, given his minor league record and above average speed, I figured he was an easy call for another 20+ steals. Now entering his age 31 season, it suddenly becomes tough to forecast a rebound back to 20+ steals.

Below is a comparison of the Pod Projections and other systems with his actual 2018 results:

Every system except ZiPS “won” at least two projection categories. Even though I was too optimistic on his HR/FB rate, I still nailed his home run total. What surprises me the most is the aggressiveness in forecasting BABIP by all the systems. I would have expected more regression being forecasted.