2018 Bold Pitcher League Leaders – A Recap

by
October 4, 2018

Yesterday, I reviewed my 2018 bold hitter league leaders. Today we move to the pitching side. These are easier to get right than hitters simply due to greater influence of luck on the results.

American League

ERA – Lance McCullers

Duped by McCullers again! As usual, injury cut into his starts and he once again struggled to keep baserunners from scoring (low LOB%). It’s weird because during his first two seasons, he was actually well above the league average in the metric. But he’s been sub-70% for two seasons running now. Probably just randomness. I’m guessing many are tired of betting on a full season from him, so I’ll prob be buying again next year. I just can’t quit.

WHIP – James Paxton

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Paxton posted an identical 1.10 WHIP to 2017 and finished a respectable seventh in the metric in the AL this year. His strikeout rate jumped for a third straight season to leap over 30% for the first time, while he maintained his strong control. A career worst HR/FB rate ensured his ERA settled in a full 0.80 runs above his SIERA. While we clearly can’t bet on health, he’s an elite shallow league target in which you could replace his missing innings with a reasonable bench choice.

SO – Blake Snell

So close! Snell enjoyed his coming out party by striking out 221 batters, but an injury cut into his starts and limited him to 180.2 innings. He ultimately finished fifth in the AL in strikeouts, driven by the fourth highest SwStk% in baseball and the second highest in the AL. Beware though — his sub-2.00 ERA was fueled by a crazy 88% LOB%. That’s the highest mark posted by any pitcher with at least 160 innings since 2000! I love Snell, but I feel like with still questionable control and a SIERA nearly a run and a half higher than his actual ERA, he’s more likely to lose money for his 2019 owners than break even.

Sv – Nate Jones

LOL. Well hey, he did earn five saves! Depending on how the spring goes, Jones might find himself back here again next year.

National League

ERA – Luis Castillo

I said for the second half right? His results were awful in the first half, as he posted a 5.49 ERA, but his strikeout rate surged and luck turned in the second half. Given the scintillating second half, he’s going to be a very popular sleeper/breakout pick. His price might make him unworthy of the risk.

WHIP – Aaron Nola

So close again! Helped by a .251 BABIP and over 80% LOB%, Nola enjoyed a big breakout year, though the skills say he was the same as he has always been. But that BABIP pushed his WHIP below 1.00 for the first time, leading to a mark that ranked third in the NL. I like that he upped his SwStk% and isn’t as reliant on the called strike anymore.

SO – Sean Newcomb

I fully expected Newcomb’s strikeout rate to rise this year, but it actually fell marginally compared to 2017. Right now, with poor control, a league average batted ball distribution, and barely above average strikeout rate, I’m not nearly as interested as I had been. Worth a gamble at the end of mixed league drafts, but he’s pure speculation that he improves his control dramatically overnight.

Sv – Arodys Vizcaino

Well hey, at least he did save two more games than in 2017 to set a new personal career high! Injury cost him his job, but he was fantastic when he was healthy enough to pitch.





 

Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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