7/5/17

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Leading Off: Question of the Day

• Justin Smoak hit his 23rd HR today; who hits the most HR at 1B rest of the way?
  • Smoak, Logan Morrison, Cody Bellinger, Eric Thames, Yonder Alonso

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Sean Newcomb finally had his first bad start of the season and unsurprisingly it came against the Houston Astros. They are third in wOBA against lefties at .347 and also have the third-lowest strikeout rate at 17%, a tough combo for the 24-year old rookie. Newcomb has actually shown a reverse platoon this year so six of the eight batters coming from the right side wasn’t necessarily a warning sign. Being Astros was the warning sign, let’s be real.

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There aren’t many players who have had as interesting, or perhaps as volatile, a career arc as Mike Moustakas has. His last few seasons have featured him being demoted to the minor leagues, finally experiencing a breakout, tearing his ACL, and, most recently, the fact that he’s set to be featured in this year’s Home Run Derby. Having already set a new career high in home runs, and currently posting the highest isolated power of his career, it probably isn’t a surprise that we’ll see him participate in the event in Miami.

Even less surprising, though, may be the influx in power that we’ve seen from Moustakas. A player who gradually improved his ability to make contact, with rising Contact% figures that peaked across his 113 plate appearances in 2016, at 86.2, while also focusing more on taking the ball to the opposite field (30.8 Oppo% last year), resulted in him reestablishing value after it looked like he was a lost cause at the hot corner in Kansas City. This year, we’re continuing to see Mike Moustakas evolve, but in a completely different way.

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I joined the Army when I was seventeen years old. 9-11 had just happened and I was determined to serve my country in the same way as my father, during Vietnam, and my grandfather, during World War II. After scoring in the 99th percentile on the ASVAB, the military’s entrance exam, I had my pick of virtually any job I wanted. Being young and cocky, I decided I wanted to be an interrogator. To do so, I had to take and pass another test called the Defense Language Aptitude Battery (DLAB). Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a unique fantasy season in which I’ve never experienced. Pitchers should be dominating the landscape with strikeouts at an all-time high. They’re not because home runs are also at an all-time high. With this unique environment, the fantasy norms which owners have been familiar with no longer exist. No one has played fantasy baseball in this high strikeout and home run environment because it has never existed before.

Here are some new guidelines for navigating this season and thinking towards next season.

Home runs have pushed scoring is up, but not to any historical levels

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We have now reached the halfway point in the ottoneu season, and at this point if your team isn’t squarely in the top four or five in your league you are in some trouble. To me the end of June is a watershed moment where teams are no longer just benefiting from a hot start or suffering from under performance, but rather the standings represent the realistic groupings of contenders, also-rans, and bottom dwellers.

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In my home league, I adopted the team name Benintendo 64 as soon as Andrew Benintendi was promoted. In this way, I consider myself a first mover and therefore privileged to continue using Benintendo puns.

AGENDA

1. Super Benintendo
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Hitters to Use
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

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The Roto Riteup would like to acknowledge some great burns around baseball:

BREAKING the strike zone has filed a counter suit against Angel Hernandez claiming negligence & discrimination for the last 25+ years. https://t.co/hjgKzB0QoX

— Dallas Braden (@DALLASBRADEN209) July 4, 2017

Ask for a trade to Washington???

— Gerome Saxton (@gcsaxton) July 4, 2017

Nahh something fun

— Felipe Rivero (@Rivero43) July 4, 2017

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The Cameron Maybin Propaganda Machine (my and Sammy Reid‘s Twitter accounts) is alive and well, spurning hype for the ESPN Player Rater’s 17th-best outfielder. It feels like he hasn’t gotten much fanfare — he’s still only 62% owned in ESPN leagues with scarcely any mentions this year from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs writers. I wrote about Maybin once but more than two years ago.

A lot of Maybin’s merits — well, once his single merit: his speed — remains intact. A preseason scouting report might’ve said if Maybin could stay healthy and earn the favor of his employing team, he could rack up 30 stolen bases while flirting with double-digit power. Prior to the Juiced Ball Era™, his was the kind of power-speed combo over which fantasy owners would typically drool on draft day yet somehow come to underappreciate on Sept. 30. It would have been fairly easy dismiss Maybin’s 2016 because of an inflated batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and what appeared likely to be a timeshare with Ben Revere or… Michael Bourn? or… it’s much less painful not thinking about his left field partners in Los Angeles of Anaheim.

Dismiss no longer, friends, the former consensus top prospect. Maybin’s born-again speed and his position atop the Angels’ batting order are too valuable to ignore. His full-season (650-plate appearance) pace: 14 home runs, 113 runs, 45 runs batted in, 55 stolen bases, a .257/.353/.400 triple-slash line. That’s immensely valuable, as the Player Rater suggests. Prorating can be a reckless exercise, but little in his peripherals suggests we should expect much, if any, second-half drop-off.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at a second base prospect enjoying the home-run (juiced ball) revolution, an outfielder who has rebelled against the home-run (juiced ball) revolution, and a pitcher who perhaps has the makings to be the next Chris Devenski.

Scott Kingery, 2B, Phillies: Kingrery is an interesting prospect. He hit eight home runs between being drafted in 2015 (in the second round) and the end of 2016. So far in 2017, through 75 games, he has 21 homers. It’s likely the combination of three things: an adjustment in his swing/approach at the plate, the juiced ball, and the Phillies’ double-A park which inflates home run production. That final point may carry less weight given that Kingrey has launched three of his home runs since being promoted to triple-A six games ago.

Second base incumbent Cesar Hernandez has been a solid player over the past year and a half based mostly on his defence but he’s also starting to get expensive (He’s making $2.6 million this year). Philadelphia, in the midst of a rebuilding phase, could look to trade the veteran to a contender this summer, or possibly this winter, and open up a spot for Kingery — who already has a 20-20 (HR-SB) season as July kicks into full swing. Even if the power output slips, he has the ability to hit for a solid average, get on base consistently and steal some bases — which makes for a very good second baseman who can also play defence competently.

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