Starting in July of 2015 I began posting monthly power rankings for ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues, taking up the mantle of work previously done by Nate Emmerson (who was gracious enough to share his process and python scripts with me). I’m posting this a little later than I meant to, but with April in the books, it’s time for the first edition of the 2017 power rankings for all four ottoneu scoring formats.
As usual, injuries have thrust players we typically ignore in most fantasy leagues into more active roles, which is usually the theme of these player recommendations.
When angry readers send you this message…
Hey Brad, YOU’RE FIRED!!!
McCarthy fucking SUCKS!!! Thanks for the stellar ‘advice’! RotoWorst IS ALWAYS WRONG.
… even though you made stronger recommendations for Zack Godley and Luis Perdomo.
AGENDA
When Aaron Judge is done destroying baseballs, he should think about a career in show business:
We put @TheJudge44 in disguise to ask unsuspecting @Yankees fans what they think about Aaron Judge. https://t.co/uU3e5sr1fb #FallonTonight
— jimmy fallon (@jimmyfallon) May 16, 2017
The ravaging of the starting pitcher ranks has had many turning an eye to the reliever ranks for reinforcements, even in mixed leagues or leagues without Holds. We’ve seen Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller rise to prominence without being in a closer’s role. This year’s big standout middle reliever is Houston’s Chris Devenski. His 43 strikeouts are tied 33rd-most in the league.
He has more strikeouts than notable Corey Kluber, Marcus Stroman, and even Jered Weaver if you can believe that. Devenski is still available in 29% of Yahoo! leagues, 40% of CBS leagues, and 41% of ESPN leagues so you might still be able to snag him for your staff. He is no doubt rostered in the leagues where he’s most valuable, but there are other relievers out there putting up big numbers and logging multi-inning appearances with regularity. Here are some of my favorites beyond Devenski:
Adam Warren | Yankees
Warren’s been a swingman/long reliever for a few years now, but is doing some of his best work this year. His swinging strike rate is tied with his previous career-high at 11%, yielding a career-best 24% strikeout rate. His slider looks the best we’ve seen and he’s leaning on it more than ever at 36% usage.
Obviously, the .170 BABIP and 0.0 HR/9 will push toward his .278/0.89 career marks, but I wouldn’t rule out this year being his best season since the 2.97 ERA/1.11 WHIP of 2014. He’s gone more than an inning in 10 of his 12 appearances and could put up the first 100+ IP reliever season since 2006 (Scott Proctor, 102.3).
Here’s today’s chat transcript.
| 3:45 |
: While I go get a snack, let’s kick things off with a poll
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| 3:45 |
: If you were forced to, which of these second basemen would you cut?
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| 3:46 |
:
Which to Cut?
Logan Forsythe (42.2% | 41 votes)
Ben Zobrist (57.7% | 56 votes)
Total Votes: 97
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| 3:48 |
: do you have high hopes for Zimmer during his call up?
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| 3:48 |
: So this is going to be a popular question. Let’s start here.
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| 3:49 |
: I don’t expect him to do particularly well in his first taste of the majors. These big swing-and-miss profiles usually take awhile to adjust.
|
Having last week identified some hitters who seem to us to have been lucky or unlucky so far this season, and then suggested what their trade value might be if their luck evens out, we now work the same magic with starting pitchers. These guys’ granular stats, we posit, indicate that they’ve pitched significantly better or worse than their Fantasy-relevant numbers suggest that they have.
We propose that they’ve been unfortunate, and that their fortunes will change. So we ask ourselves (1) who are these guys? (2) what will their stats look like over the rest of the season if their luck balances out and their full-season numbers are about what they were projected to be? and (3) what other pitcher’s expected performance will our guy’s rest-of-season stats resemble?
Our methodology is simple. We first tried it last year, with some success, and then in the preseason, where it would have pointed you towards Dallas Keuchel and away from Julio Teheran. So it shows promise. To find guys who’ve been lucky, we look for starting pitchers who are the top third of their cohort in Batting Average on Balls in Play and in Flyball/Home Run percentage, but the bottom third in Hard-Hit Percentage.
We figure that a guy who’s not getting hit hard but giving up a disproportionate number of hits and home runs is a good candidate to turn his season around. And we turn the method on its head to identify the lucky guys who do get hit hard but—because they’re giving up fewer home runs and hits than they should be—don’t yet have the scars to show for it. We think those guys are headed for a fall. Read the rest of this entry »
Another day, another grind. That’s what I say whenever I don’t feel like writing something new.
AGENDA
Yesterday, I used my xHR/FB rate equation to discuss the hitters whose actual HR/FB rate marks sat significantly below their expected marks. Today, I’ll check in on the hitters whose actual HR/FB rates are significantly higher than their xHR/FB rates. As a reminder, these are the marks unadjusted for home park.
Yesterday, I forgot to mention the retiring of Derek Jeter’s number and plaque dedication by the Yankees. I did this mostly because it is not fantasy related, but I have to acknowledge the amazing reaction by the internet.
If you look closely, you'll see that the role of Derek Jeter on his plaque will be played by 86-year-old Mickey Rooney. pic.twitter.com/YRd5mxmjFC
— Sean (@SEliasB) May 14, 2017
And of course there was this gem:
Give the Yankees credit, the inscription on Derek Jeter's plaque is 100 percent honest pic.twitter.com/f1RS7j5Ue1
— Dumb Bozo (@davelozo) May 15, 2017
On the Agenda:
1. Various News and Notes
2. Streaming Pitcher Options