2017 Pod’s Picks & Pans — Second Base & Shortstop

Let’s continue my picks and pans with a look at the second base and shortstop positions. Like for the corner guys, I’ll only consider Picks to be those in my top 20 and Pans to be those in the consensus top 20.

March Rankings Updates:
Second Base
Shortstop

I could swear I mentioned in an article earlier this year that Howie Kendrick was undervalued, but can’t seem to find it. This is dramatic undervaluation compared to the rest of the rankers! Sure, he’s a boring vet, but he’ll flirt with 10/10 and his batting average is a near lock to rebound given his consistently pristine batted ball profile. Might yield nice profit in NL-Only leagues if your leaguemates are valuing him like the rest of the rankers.

I’m usually told I value steals too highly, or perhaps just correctly, while no one else does 🙂 At the very least, I’m usually the most bullish on the players who earn the vast majority of their value from stolen bases. So it’s no surprise to find Jose Peraza, Dee Gordon, and Alcides Escobar make this list. And yet, the first two went for above my values at my local league auction (I actually was the Peraza buyer)! So maybe I’m not the only one valuing speed.

On Peraza specifically, I think there’s a real chance he ends up at the top of the order at some point during the season, as I’m projecting a much better OBP for him than Billy Hamilton. That’s not even reflected in my projection, so there’s even more upside there. For Escobar, I’m projecting him to essentially match last year, but with a rebound in runs scored since he’ll open the season batting leadoff. It’s Kendrick-like in its boringness, but the total package is worth more than you think.

The strapping young lad responsible for single-handedly pushing down the consensus ranking for Dansby Swanson explained his pessimism as he boldly predicted that Swanson would not finish as a top 27 shortstop this year. He’s another in the Kendrick mold in that he won’t standout in any particular category and so feels less valuable. My .271 batting average projection is well above Steamer and ZiPS, as Swanson’s xBABIP was a robust .346. No other projection systems are using the data fueling that mark. Sure, that was over a small sample, but batted ball type distribution stabilizes quite quickly, so I’d easily take the over on the .308/.309 BABIP forecasts.

Rougned Odor probably wouldn’t have made this list if not for Jeff’s very bullish ranking of five, with no one else better than eight. My issues here start with a HR/FB rate spike that wasn’t real — his xHR/FB rate was almost identical to his 2015 mark. Both were between 14% and 14.5%, which suggests he was unlucky in 2015 and lucky in 2016 and explains why my projection calls for a 14.5% mark. He has also outperformed his xBABIP in all three seasons, even while getting shifted significantly more often last season. I think his BABIP is at much greater risk than assumed. He’s also a poor base-stealer, so I don’t see another double digit effort.

So I’m far and away the most bearish on Neil Walker and I had no idea. My projection is almost identical to Steamer, but with a slightly higher batting average. I would imagine the other rankers are buying into the power surge more than I am. His xHR/FB rate though didn’t spike nearly as much as his actual HR/FB rate. In fact, it sat at just 12.7%, a far cry from his actual 16.2% mark.

This is the second year in a row I’m way off on Addison Russell. I like his power upside, but his BABIP skills lie much closer to his 2016 level than 2015, and he doesn’t steal bases. So he’s basically a two category contributor (and not elite in those categories relative to position, especially since he’s not knocking in 95 again) and is going to hurt you in another. How is that a top 10 shortstop?

Although I’m lowest on Carlos Correa, I checked my values to be sure if my initial hunch was correct…and it was. Correa, Jonathan Villar, Corey Seager, and Francisco Lindor are all within about two bucks of each other in projected value! You know what that means? They are completely interchangeable. So the fact that Correa happened to sit at the bottom of that foursome when I did my rankings means little.

I am very surprised that I am the low man on the totem pole for Trevor Story. But it’s the same…ahem…story as Correa. If you expand the group from four to five, you find that Story is just three buckaroos less than the top dog. I actually really like him and believe in his power thanks to a 22.9% xHR/FB rate supporting that home run outburst. He’s also a legit high BABIP guy. We just need to be slightly cautious since he hadn’t shown this level of ability in the minors, so some semblance of regression should be assumed.

Okay seriously, where’s the playing time coming from for Javier Baez? Sure, he plays all over the place, but the Cubs have really good players. It’s difficult to accrue value in just 400-500 plate appearances and outside of an injury, he can’t be expected to accumulate any more. Heck, even that level is rather high for a bench player, even if you dub him a “super utility” guy. What might be tripping up some is the batting average — his xBABIP sat at just .287 last year versus a .336 actual mark, so he has some major hidden downside risk. Would I draft him ahead of some of the players I ranked ahead. You betcha. But given that my rankings are strictly in descending order of projected dollar value, it’s hard to envision how he’s going to be a top 20 guy if injuries don’t strike. He finished just 22nd last year with a .273 average. What happens when his BABIP craters?