2017 Magazine Contributions
This season, I was lucky enough for a couple print publications, Lindy’s and The Fantasy Baseball Guide, asked me to contribute their fantasy preview magazines. While the quality of both magazines is top notch, print publications have limited room for explanations and no ability for back-and-forth discussions. Today, I am going to go over my contributions which I feel could use more explanation and will answer any questions on my thought process.
Lindy’s
For Lindy’s, I participated in their 12-team mock draft ( standard team except 1 C, 4 OF, 8P) and I picked out of the 3rd position. Here is my team
Position – Name (Round Drafted)
C – Buster Posey (3)
1B – Hanley Ramirez (7)
2B – Rougned Odor (2)
3B – Adrian Beltre (4)
SS – Marcus Semien (12)
MI – Jung Ho Kang (17)
CI – Albert Pujols (10)
OF – Andrew McCutchen (5)
OF – Mark Trumbo (9)
OF – Marcell Ozuna (14)
OF – Matt Holliday (16)
Util – Mike Moustakas (18)
P – Clayton Kershaw (1)
P – Chris Archer (6)
P – Rich Hill (11)
P – James Paxton (13)
P – Michael Pineda (19)
P – Jharel Cotton (20)
P – Andrew Miller (8)
P – Shawn Kelley (15)
Overall thoughts
Strengths
- I love my starting pitching staff. I have five of the top 22 starting pitchers according to our auction calculator.
- I will have a ton of home runs and RBI.
Weakness
- I am missing stolen Bases and Run producers. I should have targeted a few top of the order guys in the later rounds.
- My closers are talented but not guaranteed Saves. I will likely be hunting for Saves throughout the season.
Thoughts on individual picks
- Kershaw at #3 overall was easy. Using auction values, the projected difference between Kershaw and Scherzer in this format is $27. The difference between Trout and Betts is $7. Kershaw has easily the best chance of being the top rated player at the end of the season. I still value hitters over pitchers and can usually find some gems later. But Kershaw is a difference maker. If given the opportunity, I will take Trout #1, but Kershaw is next off the board for me.
- I like getting Posey in the 3rd round. After looking over the numbers several times, I don’t see position scarcity (long article coming later on this subject) except with catcher.
- Rich Hill’s an injury risk, but in a shallow league like this one, he can be replaced easily.
- The picks of Jung Ho Kang (law) and Mark Trumbo (no team) look to be shaky at this point in the offseason. I think they have acceptable talent but I worry about their playing time.
- From about the 14th round and on, I had problems finding hitters I really coveted. Either the player is boring with no upside like Carlos Beltran or a completely risky pick like Max Kepler or Hunter Renfroe. I am going to work my way through these hitters later to see if I can find some gems. Additionally, I should find the power, speed, and average contributors at the various positions and use these late picks to balance my team’s needs.
- Pineda in the 19th is a steal. He might have a high ERA again or he could put it together and be a top 10 pitcher. I will take the chance on him this late.
The Fantasy Baseball Guide
For this publication, I wrote about winning Tout Wars and some individual pitcher profiles. Additionally, I contributed to the Rookie of the Year rankings with several other writers. I won’t provide the composite rankings seen in the magazine but here the 21 I ranked.
1. Andrew Benintendi
2. Yoan Moncada
3. Manuel Margot
4. Dansby Swanson
5. Alex Reyes
6. J.P. Crawford
7. Tyler Glasnow
8. Austin Meadows
9. Jose De Leon
10. Lucas Giolito
11. Yulieski Gurriel
12. Josh Bell
13. Franklin Barreto
14. Robert Gsellman
15. Luke Weaver
16. Reynaldo Lopez
17. Cody Reed
18. Josh Hader
19. Matt Strahm
20. Ozzie Albies
21. Cody Bellinger
Thoughts
- These rankings are based on 2017 production and playing time. I used the list to help pick in BaseballHQ’s rookie draft at First Pitch Arizona.
- I will always choose hitters over pitchers. I find pitchers get injured too much and their talent level changes quickly.
- Margot has the chance to be a cheap source of 30+ stolen bases. I am a fan.
- One player I think will be a star is Cody Bellinger. I would put him higher but Adrian Gonzalez is blocking him from regular playing time.
- I am the low man on Giolito. I was all-in going into last season and owned him in two industry leagues. I watched his debut and other starts and saw nothing impressive. Most people point out his bad stats but they can be deceiving. Not this time. His stats matched how he was throwing … not well. MLB.com just released their prospect grades for him and here is how it compares to his previous grades.
| Year | Report Publication | Fastball | Curveball | Changeup/splitter | Control/Command |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | MLB | 70 | 70 | 50 | 60 |
| 2014 | MLB | 80 | 65 | 55 | 55 |
| 2014 | BA | 80 | 70 | 60 | 55 |
| 2015 | MLB | 80 | 70 | 55 | 60 |
| 2015 | BA | 80 | 70 | 60 | 60 |
| 2016 | MLB | 80 | 70 | 55 | 55 |
| 2016 | BA | 80 | 70 | 55 | 60 |
| 2017 | MLB | 65 | 65 | 55 | 50 |
His fastball no longer grades out as an 80 and his curveball and control grades are also down. Using the 2017 grade from MLB.com, here are some of his historic comps.
| Name | Year | Report Publication | Fastball | Curveball | Changeup/splitter | Control/Command |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Giolito | 2017 | MLB | 65 | 65 | 55 | 50 |
| Jeff Hoffman | 2015 | MLB | 65 | 65 | 55 | 55 |
| Jeff Hoffman | 2016 | MLB | 65 | 65 | 55 | 55 |
| Jeff Hoffman | 2014 | MLB | 65 | 65 | 55 | 55 |
| Lucas Sims | 2015 | MLB | 65 | 60 | 55 | 50 |
| Jameson Taillon | 2015 | MLB | 65 | 60 | 55 | 50 |
| Jameson Taillon | 2016 | MLB | 65 | 60 | 55 | 50 |
| Sean Newcomb | 2016 | BA | 65 | 60 | 55 | 50 |
| Mike Montgomery | 2012 | BA | 65 | 65 | 60 | 50 |
| Touki Toussaint | 2015 | MLB | 65 | 65 | 55 | 45 |
| Drew Pomeranz | 2012 | BA | 60 | 65 | 55 | 55 |
| Sean Newcomb | 2015 | BA | 60 | 60 | 55 | 50 |
| Grant Holmes | 2015 | BA | 60 | 60 | 55 | 50 |
| Justus Sheffield | 2016 | BA | 60 | 60 | 55 | 50 |
| Rob Kaminsky | 2014 | MLB | 60 | 60 | 55 | 50 |
| Hunter Harvey | 2016 | MLB | 60 | 65 | 50 | 50 |
| Max Fried | 2014 | MLB | 60 | 65 | 50 | 50 |
| Jameson Taillon | 2014 | MLB | 65 | 60 | 55 | 55 |
| Lucas Sims | 2014 | MLB | 65 | 60 | 55 | 55 |
| Carl Edwards Jr. | 2015 | MLB | 65 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
| Grant Holmes | 2016 | MLB | 65 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
| Archie Bradley | 2014 | MLB | 70 | 65 | 50 | 50 |
| Aaron Sanchez | 2015 | MLB | 70 | 65 | 55 | 45 |
| Touki Toussaint | 2014 | MLB | 70 | 65 | 55 | 45 |
Some good, but nothing great. Giolito’s still a decent prospect but not as highly regarded as he was just a year ago.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Re: Lindy’s, how do you not discuss Odor at 21st overall? Was there a run on 2B? He’s going nearly two rounds later according to NFBC.
I probably would have waited longer if NFBC ADP was available. Instead, I used FanTrax’s ADP which had Odor at 35th player gone.
Using the linked Auction values, Odor is the 14th overall rated hitter (Posey was 15th). With the early ADP, I figured both would have been gone by my 4th/5th round picks.
Wow. Didn’t realize Odor’s projections were that strong. I’ll need to dive into the auction calculator soon.