2016 Pod’s Picks & Pans: Catcher

At last, it’s the final Pod’s Picks and Pans, as we finish things off with catcher. In the past, there have been years I haven’t even published a catcher version because there just wasn’t much disagreement. Which is strange because often times we all know the top tier, which is Buster Posey first, a couple of guys in the next couple of slots, and then a massive tier where we could make a reasonable case for a slew of guys to finish the season at said ranking at season’s end. Luckily, this year there does seem to be some disagreement worth discussing. Here are the updated consensus rankings.

Pod’s Picks: Catcher

PLAYER	Mike	Consensus	Diff
Matt Wieters	6	12	-6
Salvador Perez	4	6	-2
J.T. Realmuto	11	15	-4

So, Matt Wieters. Obviously, if we published an updated updated set of rankings, he would no longer be my sixth ranked guy. His elbow issues cropped up soon after these rankings went live and I worry about how that both affects his playing time and his performance. Even if he avoids the DL to start the year, he might receive more rest than usual. So he’s become a real risk. But he did appear here because I was bullish on his prospects for a rebound. Let’s ignore the injury risk for a moment and focus on what he did last year. His ISO plummeted, but his batted ball distance hit a new career high, reaching 300 feet, and jumping above 290 feet for the first time. I love a healthy Wieters, I just don’t know what a bum-elbowed Wieters will do.

Ehhh, two ranking spots better for Salvador Perez isn’t much. And it’s really just one ranker who’s the outlier here, but rather than skip a name and give you just two players, I kept him in. His value comes from a strong contact rate and lots and lots of playing time. About that HR/FB rate that jumped into the double digits for just the second time? His batted ball distance validates the surge, as it hopped to a career high. He’s still just 25, so the power spike should mostly be sustained.

Finally, J.T. Realmuto is precisely the type of player I was hoping to uncover with this series. In his first full season last year, he displayed a nice combination of both power and speed. Yes, speed. Remember Jason Kendall, providing that rare speed at the catcher position? Think of Realmuto as the poor man’s version. His batted ball distance confirms that his power isn’t very exciting, but he should benefit a bit from the closer fences in Miami. He also has some batting average upside after a below average .285 BABIP, despite a nice batted ball profile.

Pod’s Pans: Catcher

PLAYER	Mike	Consensus	Diff
Russell Martin	9	5	4
Yasmani Grandal	16	9	7

I was a big fan of Russell Martin heading into 2015, as he was slated to hit second in what we all knew was going to be a monster lineup, and he moved from a pitcher’s park to one of the most hitter friendly in baseball. It was the right call. But now, he’s getting too much love. He’s not going to come anywhere near a 20.7% HR/FB rate again and this time around he’s slated to open the season hitting eighth. He certainly has the potential to move up in the order, but he batted fifth or sixth the vast majority of the time last year. So there’s little chance his lineup slots will be as favorable this year as last year. It’s going to make it impossible for him to duplicate the 150 RBI and runs he posted last year.

Look, I’m a fan of the potential of what a healthy Yasmani Grandal could do. But health is something he has struggled with. Sure enough, he’s already dealing with a forearm issue! This is in addition to coming off shoulder surgery after the season, which is notorious for sapping a hitter’s power. So the power is now a question mark, and he’s already proven to be a batting average drain thanks to a below average BABIP throughout his career. One of these years, the big breakout is going to come. I just don’t think it’s this one.