2016 First Base Tiers: August
Previous Rankings
As many of the other positional rankings were impacted rather significantly by the trade deadline, the first basemen stayed in place with the exception of Steve Pearce. I am sticking with having lesser tiers, but making them larger. Especially since nobody complained last week, which is mostly my gauge when evaluating my rankings. So thank you for that.
Per usual, these rankings are reflective of 5×5 batting average leagues, even though there may be times that I am over/under-rating a player based on my inclination to play in more OBP leagues. Eligibility is increasing like wild flower, so I apologize in advance if I missed any eligible first basemen.
I really love cereal and I am trying to go on a diet that would essentially eliminate cereal from my life for the time being. In honor of my love of cereal, I have named my tiers after my favorite cereal. And no, these choices are not subjective. These are objectively my favorite cereals and should be yours as well if you are able to appreciate the finest in sugared breakfast foods.
Tier 1- Peanut Butter Crunch
This is the lowest ISO we’ve seen from Paul Goldschmidt (.198), yet his home run total is similar to his 2014 in 8 more Pas (19 in 2014 & 17 in 2016). The difference is he has not hit as many doubles as he did in his shortened 2014. He is the 2nd best performing first baseman according to ESPN’s Player Rater, and that is without the elite power he is capable of. The rest of the numbers continue to be consistently strong keeping him at the top.
Tier 2- Golden Grahams
Wil Myers might need to be Tier 1, especially with those 21 stolen bases at a position where you don’t typically find stolen bases. He has been the top fantasy 1B so far this season, and I don’t expect a major fallout or anything like that. I’m just not ready to say he will sustain these numbers for a whole season, which puts him in the top tier. I also would not be surprised if he is able to maintain these numbers to remain the top fantasy first baseman, but he is a 25 year old and may hit some more roadblocks. The fact that he is 25 may make the Tier One argument even stronger. Maybe I am waiting too long to boost him up even further. This wasn’t an easy choice, but I want to see another month of this level before we move him up.
Since June 1, Joey Votto has been a monster again batting .374/.511/.592, but expect a drop in runs scored after the Reds traded Jay Bruce. Bruce was an RBI machine with the Reds, batting over .350 w/RISP, which is an excellent fit when an OBP monster like Votto is hitting ahead of you. Glad to see Votto bounce back from a rough start to the season and has climbed back up the rankings. Mike Napoli shot up the rankings. I like his opportunities in his line-up and the power appears to be real. The HR/FB (25.7%) is higher than his career rate (19.8%), but he saw similar numbers in Texas where he exhibited excellent power. Health has always been an issue, so be careful when trying to buy. Definitely value him as a top option now and ride that power as long as he is healthy.
I had trouble ranking Pujols and Trumbo because they have been top 10 fantasy performers, but I worry about Trumbo sustaining the power and not hitting a massive skid, and Pujols keeping up those RBI numbers, where he ranks 2nd amongst first basemen with 84. Having Trout ahead of you really helps and the power is solid, although down from last year. Age is a concern for me investing heavy in Pujols moving forward, though I have to admit I ranked him too low for most of this season.
Tier 3- French Toast Crunch
I really keep expecting Brandon Belt to find that home run power and become a fantasy beast. Amongst first basemen, he is third in wRC+ (143), which is great in real baseball, but does not mean success in fantasy. He is ranked 16th in the ESPN Player Rater and that is for the lack of counting stats relative to other first basemen. I still see some hope for that power and the other counting stats outside of stolen bases. The BA and OBP should remain stable and is a safe bet in your lineup as his upside is starting to dwindle.
Matt Carpenter and Justin Bour are supposed to return from the DL this Friday, providing very different skillsets. Still feel like Carpenter should be used elsewhere because of his positional eligibility, but every line-up is constructed differently. In OBP leagues, Carpenter easily shoots up to the second tier and he really does provide a nice variety of stats outside of stolen bases. Bour can be an excellent source of power, though it seems to come in bunches for him. I like the RBI opportunities for him in the Marlins line-up if Giancarlo Stanton doesn’t go on a tear and clean up all his chances.
Tier 4- Count Chocula
Steve Pearce
Steve Pearce owners must be quite frustrated at this point. After finally getting off the DL, he then gets traded to the Orioles where playing time will be hard to come by. He’s been absolutely destroying lefties this year (.375/.478/.714) in only 67 PAs, which is nothing new except for how well he has been hitting them. He still has a .791 OPS this season against righties (.725 career) so it’s a shame he probably won’t be getting a steady dose of at-bats. It also appears Pedro Alvarez may be heating up with four homeruns in the last four games, which will make it difficult for Pearce to get those at-bats.
I seem to write about James Loney way too much, but it is worth noting that Lucas Duda is potentially out for the season so Loney will get regular playing time. Outside of his batting average, there is nothing that really stands out counting stats-wise. I’m still looking at him in those deeper leagues in the hopes that the Mets batting average w/RISP reverts back to normal (whatever that may be) and that his slight uptick in power continues to grow like Daniel Murphy’s did. Outside of Murphy’s doubles power, both players were very similar hitters before seeing Mets hitting coach Kevin Long. Worth taking a flyer on in those deeper leagues where this tier is your only option.
The rest of this group are guys who could bounce back or guys who found some hot streaks, but I just don’t see as sustainable.
Tier 5- Cookie Crisp
V-Mart?
DH I guess
A lot of these guys DH but have 1B eligibility. And Posey is a catcher!
Posey has actually played some first though
I left him off because he doesn’t receive 1B eligibility in most leagues, but he would be in the second tier.
Yeah at the beginning of the year I was stuck with Vmart and Papi which wasn’t very awesome considering I could only use one at a time.
Ugh why did I draft Abreu…
But let’s be real here, there is no contest that Reese’s Puffs is the greatest cereal ever made, and no that is not a subjective statement either.
Reese’s Puffs? Not sure that makes my top 10…that’s definitely a “corner store that has nothing else” purchase. If we’re talking PB cereals, nothing beats the Cap’n.
Cereal is undoubtedly one of the most overrated and unhealthy foods and part of our infantilization of food, along with breaded boneless pieces of chicken. Most cereal especially the ones in these tiers is a vehicle for sugar under the guise of “breakfast is the most important meal of the day” and “chock full of vitamins and minerals”. I say this not to shame you but to encourage you.
Replace your morning bowl of cereal with a half bagel toasted with a slice of cheddar cheese and an over easy egg and you’ll forget what you ever found so alluring about processed fortified corn puffs.
Having said that, I have never had a good first baseman in any of my years of fantasy due to my unwillingness to pay a premium for the top tier of the position. So I’m very happy to have snagged Napoli off waivers in my 14-team ESPN league early in the season, and have gotten him for $1 at auction in my ottoneu league. Probably the best value of anyone in that tier and in a season where there haven’t been many hot 1B prospects.
I had a heart attack just reading about your cheese and egg covered bagel.
Then you don’t know shit about diet, bub. Stick to what you know, which apparently doesn’t include spelling.
Are you so sure? Bagels are pretty terrible for you, and eating eggs and cheese every morning isn’t great either. Unless you’re one of those protein truthers …
No, everything about this is wrong. Buncha fangraphers trying to tell me an egg and cheese bagel are worse than sugar-crammed processed rice/corn/wheat. K
If even one person (especially the author) reads this and thinks I’m an asshole but I may have a point, then at least it was helpful.
Damn straight dude. Whether you’re talking about scrambled eggs, a couple of soft boiled eggs or a good piece of meat with fruit and a generous amount of some type of good unprocessed oil (olive, walnut, flaxseed) on your bagel (I can’t eat cheese, allergic to the milk protein) it beats these sugar-laden cereals that will only raise and drop your blood sugar faster than you can blink an eye. And in the process you will gain weight because the excess sugar has to be removed rapidly from the bloodstream and stored as fat after a series of biochemical steps.
And if there’s a sillier term than “protein truther” I haven’t heard it.
Until my neuropathy forced me to change my diet, I had 3 eggs for breakfast 5 times a week with excellent (according to my own physician) cholesterol readings for years.
There is zero evidence that in normal people eating eggs or lean meat raises cholesterol. Zero. Only people with an inherited condition called familial hypercholesterolemia should ever have to worry about cholesterol intake.
“If even one person (especially the author) reads this and thinks I’m an asshole but I may have a point, then at least it was helpful.”
I will agree with the first half of your statement.
I’m down with the eggs and cheese, but a bagel every morning is no dice. Plus, I don’t live in NY anymore so the bagel game where I’m at is pretty whack. Appreciate your feedback though.
New York has the best bagels for sure.
I understand. My background is that I’m a PhD student studying cancer biology and I’ve become fascinated by ketogenic diet. I don’t buy into it totally, because I still think dietary cholesterol is negative for health, so I don’t believe that all meat is good meat. But I can understand avoiding carbs. And I’m also not suggesting it every morning, and I also know that cutting cereal may mean cutting it as a snack at other times of the day.
I’d also suggest oatmeal with added pb2 and/or cinnamon and/or flax seed and/or hemp seen, as many cruciferous veggies as you can tolerate your favorite style (should be roasted or sauteed), and fish fish fish fish fish, especially salmon. smoked salmon also goes well on that aforementioned egg and cheese bagel.
mediterranean diet is a good benchmark, but there’s no problem with getting adventurous from there. and best of luck to you.
Salmon may be rich in omega-3 fatty acids, but salmon also can have an appreciable amount of mercury. There are documented cases of people suffering from mercury poisoning because of too much salmon in their diets. I don’t need to tell you if you’re a biology student about the neuro-toxicity of mercury.
And even though I love biology I didn’t pursue a degree in it in college. But one thing is certain (as you say): cruciferous vegetables are demonstrably good for decreasing your risk of getting cancer
This list of cereals is hilariously wrong.
I thought it was a list of cookies.
What does Encarnacion need to do to get bumped up into the top ranking? I’m not criticizing, I’m just curious. His OPS is over .900 and he is second in HRs (First in RBIs FWIW). Very comparable with the top tier players.
I think that is fair. Maybe I am overrating his batting average, which gives a bump to those tier one guys. But the consistent power and great RBI opps definitely put him in the argument for the first tier, and that is something I will re-evaluate going further. Thanks!
Kendrys Morales?
Probably tier 3
Matt Adams?
Definitely missed him…good catch. I worry about him losing ABs, so probably Tier 4.