2016 First Base Tiers: August

Previous Rankings

Preseason

May

June

July

As many of the other positional rankings were impacted rather significantly by the trade deadline, the first basemen stayed in place with the exception of Steve Pearce. I am sticking with having lesser tiers, but making them larger. Especially since nobody complained last week, which is mostly my gauge when evaluating my rankings. So thank you for that.

Per usual, these rankings are reflective of 5×5 batting average leagues, even though there may be times that I am over/under-rating a player based on my inclination to play in more OBP leagues. Eligibility is increasing like wild flower, so I apologize in advance if I missed any eligible first basemen.

I really love cereal and I am trying to go on a diet that would essentially eliminate cereal from my life for the time being. In honor of my love of cereal, I have named my tiers after my favorite cereal. And no, these choices are not subjective. These are objectively my favorite cereals and should be yours as well if you are able to appreciate the finest in sugared breakfast foods.

Tier 1- Peanut Butter Crunch

Paul Goldschmidt

Anthony Rizzo

Miguel Cabrera

This is the lowest ISO we’ve seen from Paul Goldschmidt (.198), yet his home run total is similar to his 2014 in 8 more Pas (19 in 2014 & 17 in 2016). The difference is he has not hit as many doubles as he did in his shortened 2014. He is the 2nd best performing first baseman according to ESPN’s Player Rater, and that is without the elite power he is capable of. The rest of the numbers continue to be consistently strong keeping him at the top.

Tier 2- Golden Grahams

Edwin Encarnacion

Wil Myers

Joey Votto

Freddie Freeman

Chris Davis

Mike Napoli

Eric Hosmer

Carlos Santana

Albert Pujols

Mark Trumbo

Wil Myers might need to be Tier 1, especially with those 21 stolen bases at a position where you don’t typically find stolen bases. He has been the top fantasy 1B so far this season, and I don’t expect a major fallout or anything like that. I’m just not ready to say he will sustain these numbers for a whole season, which puts him in the top tier. I also would not be surprised if he is able to maintain these numbers to remain the top fantasy first baseman, but he is a 25 year old and may hit some more roadblocks. The fact that he is 25 may make the Tier One argument even stronger. Maybe I am waiting too long to boost him up even further. This wasn’t an easy choice, but I want to see another month of this level before we move him up.

Since June 1, Joey Votto has been a monster again batting .374/.511/.592, but expect a drop in runs scored after the Reds traded Jay Bruce. Bruce was an RBI machine with the Reds, batting over .350 w/RISP, which is an excellent fit when an OBP monster like Votto is hitting ahead of you. Glad to see Votto bounce back from a rough start to the season and has climbed back up the rankings. Mike Napoli shot up the rankings. I like his opportunities in his line-up and the power appears to be real. The HR/FB (25.7%) is higher than his career rate (19.8%), but he saw similar numbers in Texas where he exhibited excellent power. Health has always been an issue, so be careful when trying to buy. Definitely value him as a top option now and ride that power as long as he is healthy.

I had trouble ranking Pujols and Trumbo because they have been top 10 fantasy performers, but I worry about Trumbo sustaining the power and not hitting a massive skid, and Pujols keeping up those RBI numbers, where he ranks 2nd amongst first basemen with 84. Having Trout ahead of you really helps and the power is solid, although down from last year. Age is a concern for me investing heavy in Pujols moving forward, though I have to admit I ranked him too low for most of this season.

Tier 3- French Toast Crunch

Brandon Belt

Buster Posey

Matt Carpenter

Justin Bour

Hanley Ramirez

Brandon Moss

Travis Shaw

Chris Carter

Adrian Gonzalez

Mark Reynolds

Joe Mauer

Matt Holliday

I really keep expecting Brandon Belt to find that home run power and become a fantasy beast. Amongst first basemen, he is third in wRC+ (143), which is great in real baseball, but does not mean success in fantasy. He is ranked 16th in the ESPN Player Rater and that is for the lack of counting stats relative to other first basemen. I still see some hope for that power and the other counting stats outside of stolen bases. The BA and OBP should remain stable and is a safe bet in your lineup as his upside is starting to dwindle.

Matt Carpenter and Justin Bour are supposed to return from the DL this Friday, providing very different skillsets. Still feel like Carpenter should be used elsewhere because of his positional eligibility, but every line-up is constructed differently. In OBP leagues, Carpenter easily shoots up to the second tier and he really does provide a nice variety of stats outside of stolen bases. Bour can be an excellent source of power, though it seems to come in bunches for him. I like the RBI opportunities for him in the Marlins line-up if Giancarlo Stanton doesn’t go on a tear and clean up all his chances.

Tier 4- Count Chocula

Mitch Moreland

James Loney

Jose Abreu

David Freese

Logan Forsythe

Pedro Alvarez

Justin Morneau

Jedd Gyorko

Steve Pearce

Wilmer Flores

Tommy Joseph

Billy Butler

Stephen Vogt

Marwin Gonzalez

Ryan Zimmerman

Yonder Alonso

Sean Rodriguez

Mark Teixeira

Steve Pearce owners must be quite frustrated at this point. After finally getting off the DL, he then gets traded to the Orioles where playing time will be hard to come by. He’s been absolutely destroying lefties this year (.375/.478/.714) in only 67 PAs, which is nothing new except for how well he has been hitting them. He still has a .791 OPS this season against righties (.725 career) so it’s a shame he probably won’t be getting a steady dose of at-bats. It also appears Pedro Alvarez may be heating up with four homeruns in the last four games, which will make it difficult for Pearce to get those at-bats.

I seem to write about James Loney way too much, but it is worth noting that Lucas Duda is potentially out for the season so Loney will get regular playing time. Outside of his batting average, there is nothing that really stands out counting stats-wise. I’m still looking at him in those deeper leagues in the hopes that the Mets batting average w/RISP reverts back to normal (whatever that may be) and that his slight uptick in power continues to grow like Daniel Murphy’s did. Outside of Murphy’s doubles power, both players were very similar hitters before seeing Mets hitting coach Kevin Long. Worth taking a flyer on in those deeper leagues where this tier is your only option.

The rest of this group are guys who could bounce back or guys who found some hot streaks, but I just don’t see as sustainable.

Tier 5- Cookie Crisp

John Jaso

Adam Lind

Dae-Ho Lee

Ryan Howard

Ji-Man Choi

Rob Refsnyder

Clint Robinson

Andrew Romine

Jefry Marte

Austin Romine

Miguel Rojas