2016 Bold Pitcher League Leaders – A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed my 2016 bold hitter league leaders and was ecstatic for even getting just one correct. Today, I’ll check in on my bold pitcher league leaders. Let’s see if I could match my hitter success. Check out my original article with full reasoning behind my choices.

American League

ERA – Carlos Carrasco

Carrasco missed time due to injury and ended up not even recording enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. It didn’t matter, of course, because his 3.32 mark, which was a marginal improvement from his 2015 performance, would have ranked ninth in the AL. It was certainly a good year for a surprise ERA leader as Aaron Sanchez led the league with a 3.00 ERA, which is pretty high for the lowest mark in the league. Carrasco’s strikeout rate declined and his SIERA surged higher, perhaps related to a loss in velocity which pushed his fastball speed down to its lowest mark since 2011. I remain a big fan, but remember that he hasn’t thrown more than 190 professional innings in a season since 2010.

0 for 1

WHIP – Michael Pineda

Pineda disappointed me in more ways than one this year. He was on two of my three teams and also made his way onto this very list. Despite posting a career high 27.4% strikeout rate, an inflated .339 BABIP (the second straight year his BABIP has sat above .300) wreaked havoc on his WHIP, which settled in at 1.35, well above his previous high set in 2015. You can nearly guarantee he finds his way onto most, if not all, of my teams next season.

0 for 2

W – Marcus Stroman

Trying to predict the leader in wins is a fool’s errand, and then trying to make sure your selection is considered bold is even more difficult. Stroman turned out to be a hilarious bad choice, as he failed to even reach double digits with just 9 victories! Some of that was because the Blue Jays offense wasn’t nearly as good as it was last year. Mostly, though, it was because Stroman was quite a disappointment on the mound, finishing with a 4.37 ERA. However, given his second half strikeout rate strikeout and elite ground ball rate, he’s an exciting sleeper for next year.

0 for 3

SO – Danny Salazar

Salazar battled elbow issues, limiting him to just 137.1 innings over 25 starts, but he actually upped his strikeout rate. I knew innings would be the key here, but it would have been difficult to match Justin Verlander’s league leading 254 strikeouts mark. I worry now about Salazar as his elbow issues coincided with a spike in walk rate. As much of a fan as I had been, I would probably shy away from him unless he comes at a significant discount next year.

0 for 4

Sv – Sean Doolittle

Speechless. He’s one reason my AL Tout Wars team was a disaster. Despite heading into the season with the closer role, he literally lost his job in the first week or so. And while he missed much of the season with shoulder issues, he still finished with a respectable 3.23 ERA and 2.95 SIERA…but with just four saves.

0 for 5

National League

ERA – Raisel Iglesias

Sadly, he was moved into a relief role after going down with an injury as a member of the starting rotation and therefore didn’t come close to qualifying for an ERA title. But he posted a 2.53 ERA with very similar skills as last year, which supported my point that he was just unlucky given his inflated HR/FB rate and suppressed LOB%. Whatever role he’s in next year, he should succeed.

0 for 6

WHIP – Patrick Corbin

Man, these predictions are getting worse and worse! Corbin made an excellent return from TJ surgery in 2015, which made me optimistic about his performance this year as he got further away from the procedure. Instead, his skills deteriorated, ERA hopped above 5.00, and WHIP finished at a disgusting 1.56. If he qualified for the leaderboard, that would literally be the worst in the NL. If it was opposite day, I’d be correct! Pathetic.

0 for 7

W – Kyle Hendricks

Correct in spirit! Hendricks ended up finishing in a tie for fifth in wins with 16, as he easily led the league in ERA and threw 190 innings. The actual league leader Max Scherzer, wouldn’t have been bold, highlighting how hard it is to get these right while remaining bold. Obviously, this was a magical year for Hendricks, but no matter how much you believe in his so-called contact management skills, there’s no way you could project another .250 BABIP. Combined with his pedestrian strikeout rate, he’s a near lock to be overvalued next year, even if he should still remain valuable.

0 for 8

SO – Francisco Liriano

Like Salazar above, innings figured to be the big problem, and that certainly was one of them. Also contributing was a strikeout rate that fell to its lowest mark since 2011.

0 for 9

Sv – Jake McGee

It’s cool that my two bold saves choices combined for a mere 19 saves and both missed time to injury. Unlike Doolittle though, McGee wasn’t even good when he was healthy enough to pitch. His strikeout rate plummeted below 20% for the first time in his career, his BABIP shot up to .338, and suddenly home runs were a major problem. His fastball velocity hit a career low so it’s fair to ask whether he was ever healthy this season. Coors Field hurt as well, of course, but he was awful on the road too.

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